baseball bracketology 5/6

[anon1758050382]

With so many SEC hosts, there aren’t many possible landing spots if we make the tournament.

Tallahassee is very likely. State in Tallahassee with an interim coach isn’t terrible.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Selfishly hoping for Chapel Hill, Conway, or Clemson. Might be able to make Morgantown but it’s a stretch. Is Wake gets on a run to close out the season that’d be nice too

 

[L4MANDW]

I suppose save finishing out w/5-6 SEC wins & winning the SEC Tournament in Hoover, there’s no realistic way State hosts in Starkville & maybe still not even then pending all the remaining SEC regular seasons endings. One thing for sure I noted either on here, GP, or maybe even both boards, we ain’t no stranger to Tallahassee, Florida & we certainly ain’t beyond taking a regional there w/an interim coach. Tallahassee’s a good place to land given all this team, staff, & fan base have endured this looong season and we definitely could come out of there and advance on trek to Omaha. Just gotta keep winning now that the team has finally gotten in that mode & mindset. Best of luck to this team & interim staff for the remainder of the season & we anxiously await what our future may hold in the signing on of our next skipper!

 

[17itdawg]

Selfishly hoping for Chapel Hill, Conway, or Clemson. Might be able to make Morgantown but it’s a stretch. Is Wake gets on a run to close out the season that’d be nice too

Same especially Clemson.

 

[GloryDawg]

Who do we start against Troy at pitching? The beat us during mid-week game.

 

[patdog]

There’s some good memories of playing Florida St in the postseason. Who will be this year's Burke Masters or Justin Pigott?

 

[Duke Humphrey]

There’s some good memories of playing Florida St in the postseason. Who will be this year's Burke Masters or Justin Pigott?

or Big Hit Mac

 

[Perd Hapley]

I suppose save finishing out w/5-6 SEC wins & winning the SEC Tournament in Hoover, there’s no realistic way State hosts in Starkville

There’s no chance at all of us hosting….even if the scenario above happens.

 

[Msuirondawgs]

There’s no chance at all of us hosting….even if the scenario above happens.

 

[anon1758050382]

I suppose save finishing out w/5-6 SEC wins & winning the SEC Tournament in Hoover, there’s no realistic way State hosts in Starkville & maybe still not even then pending all the remaining SEC regular seasons endings. One thing for sure I noted either on here, GP, or maybe even both boards, we ain’t no stranger to Tallahassee, Florida & we certainly ain’t beyond taking a regional there w/an interim coach. Tallahassee’s a good place to land given all this team, staff, & fan base have endured this looong season and we definitely could come out of there and advance on trek to Omaha. Just gotta keep winning now that the team has finally gotten in that mode & mindset. Best of luck to this team & interim staff for the remainder of the season & we anxiously await what our future may hold in the signing on of our next skipper!

It's not an exact science, but according to Boyd's World, a top-16 RPI is out of reach. We have a lot of work to do to finish with a top-32 RPI, so we are playing for at least a tournament spot, a 2-seed at the absolute best.

 

[anon1758050382]

It's not an exact science, but according to Boyd's World, a top-16 RPI is out of reach. We have a lot of work to do to finish with a top-32 RPI, so we are playing for at least a tournament spot, a 2-seed at the absolute best.

View attachment 799956

Speaking of, Ole Miss likely has to win their last two SEC series to host. We have our own goals, but preventing them from hosting wouldn't be terrible.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I’m going to call a fair amount of BS on Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon all being awarded host sites over Alabama on this list. This is some serious west coast bias nonsense from this publication. Some of those resumes aren’t even close to Bama.

Arizona:
RPI 25
SOS 37
Quad 1 record 11-10
Overall record 33-15

UCLA:
RPI 15
SOS 17
Quad 1 record 3-7 (LOL)
Overall record 34-14

Oregon:
RPI 24
SOS 43
Quad 1 record 9-1
Overall record 34-13

Alabama:
RPI 12
SOS 25
Quad 1 record 12-9
Overall record 37-12

Alabama has the highest RPI, the best overall record, the 2nd best SOS (and could end up being the best - they finish with with two Top 20 RPI teams), the most Quad 1 wins, and the second best Quad 1 winning percentage. As things sit right now, they are absolutely a rock solid host over all 3 of those teams if the season ended today. If they finish with a winning SEC record, (splitting the last 6 against UF / UGA), they are absolutely a lock.

Really nothing besides blatant bias or laziness to not include them as a host as of right now. Ole Miss has a better resume than all 3 of them as well, just a few more losses, but also an even stronger SOS than Bama.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

I’m going to call a fair amount of BS on Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon all being awarded host sites over Alabama on this list. This is some serious west coast bias nonsense from this publication. Some of those resumes aren’t even close to Bama.

Arizona:
RPI 25
SOS 37
Quad 1 record 11-10
Overall record 33-15

UCLA:
RPI 15
SOS 17
Quad 1 record 3-7 (LOL)
Overall record 34-14

Oregon:
RPI 24
SOS 43
Quad 1 record 9-1
Overall record 34-13

Alabama:
RPI 12
SOS 25
Quad 1 record 12-9
Overall record 37-12

Alabama has the highest RPI, the best overall record, the 2nd best SOS (and could end up being the best - they finish with with two Top 20 RPI teams), the most Quad 1 wins, and the second best Quad 1 winning percentage. As things sit right now, they are absolutely a rock solid host over all 3 of those teams if the season ended today. If they finish with a winning SEC record, (splitting the last 6 against UF / UGA), they are absolutely a lock.

Really nothing besides blatant bias or laziness to not include them as a host as of right now. Ole Miss has a better resume than all 3 of them as well, just a few more losses, but also an even stronger SOS than Bama.

I believe D1 usually incorporates how they predict the rest of the season to go in this, and it’s not just a measure of where things stand right now. Bama closes the year with Georgia and at Florida. If they lose both series, which seems very possible, I doubt they host at 15-15. Whereas Oregon and UCLA have easier finishes to the year.

If I’m not mistaken, historically West Coast teams are given some leniency on RPI due to the lack of quality programs within a reasonable travel didtsnce. If you’re in the SEC or ACC foot print, you are usually a bus ride away from another decent program you can play in nonconference. Not the same in other parts of the country.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I believe D1 usually incorporates how they predict the rest of the season to go in this, and it’s not just a measure of where things stand right now. Bama closes the year with Georgia and at Florida. If they lose both series, which seems very possible, I doubt they host at 15-15. Whereas Oregon and UCLA have easier finishes to the year.

This is somewhat plausible, but I don’t see any reason why they’d assume Bama would lose both series (or win one 2-1 and get swept in the other). They are 2 games ahead of UF, 2 games behind UGA. They play the better team at home and the worse one on the road. There’s not a lot of separation, I don’t see why they wouldn’t just be expected to finish 3-3. And its not impossible for them to host at 15-15 either, they’d just likely need a decent run in Hoover to do so. Overall, it seems far more likely than not that they will host, based on what is known today. They have many different viable paths.

If I’m not mistaken, historically West Coast teams are given some leniency on RPI due to the lack of quality programs within a reasonable travel didtsnce. If you’re in the SEC or ACC foot print, you are usually a bus ride away from another decent program you can play in nonconference. Not the same in other parts of the country.

I’ve not ever heard this narrative. Maybe there is some small leeway, but at the end of the day you have to award the host sites based on merit. You can’t afford to play a tough nonconference schedule? Too bad. And all 3 of those teams don’t really have any excuses regardless. They are getting on airplanes for all their away games in conference play, too. They can do the same for their nonconference games (or pay someone else to come to their place) any time that they want to beef up their nonconference slate.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

This is somewhat plausible, but I don’t see any reason why they’d assume Bama would lose both series (or win one 2-1 and get swept in the other). They are 2 games ahead of UF, 2 games behind UGA. They play the better team at home and the worse one on the road. There’s not a lot of separation, I don’t see why they wouldn’t just be expected to finish 3-3. And its not impossible for them to host at 15-15 either, they’d just likely need a decent run in Hoover to do so. Overall, it seems far more likely than not that they will host, based on what is known today. They have many different viable paths.


I’ve not ever heard this narrative. Maybe there is some small leeway, but at the end of the day you have to award the host sites based on merit. You can’t afford to play a tough nonconference schedule? Too bad. And all 3 of those teams don’t really have any excuses regardless. They are getting on airplanes for all their away games in conference play, too. They can do the same for their nonconference games (or pay someone else to come to their place) any time that they want to beef up their nonconference slate.

Arizona hosted last year with a 31 RPI and 3-9 Q1 record so who knows what the criteria even is.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Arizona hosted last year with a 31 RPI and 3-9 Q1 record so who knows what the criteria even is.

Right. And there was a littany of complaints from about 5 different fanbases about that decision, especially after they totally crapped the bed in their own regional. Most undeserving host team of all time.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

Right. And there was a littany of complaints from about 5 different fanbases about that decision, especially after they totally crapped the bed in their own regional. Most undeserving host team of all time.

ECU was similar last year. Got an undeserving host thanks to their AD being on the selection committee and then Evansville won their regional.

 

[Perd Hapley]

ECU was similar last year. Got an undeserving host thanks to their AD being on the selection committee and then Evansville won their regional.

ECU was at least in or near the RPI Top 20, which has historically been the minimum threshold to host. They were one of the 4-5 teams (as was MSU) that you could have drawn names out of a hat for the final 1-2 host spots. Arizona was nowhere near the hat, the hat store, or even the strip mall where the hat store was located.

 

[Baddog11]

Scheduling north Alabama does you no favors here at the end of the year and it only helps a team in your market area improve their team, facilities, and fan experience.