Baseball RPI Number Crunching

[57stratdawg]

A couple of background concepts:

• The Baseball RPI Formula is basically [(25% where did you Win or Lose) + (75% who did you play)]
• Home Games = 0.7 (win) and 1.3 (loss)
• Neutral site games are 1 (win) and 1 (loss)
• Away Games = 1.3 (win) and 0.7 (loss)

Since the first part of the RPI formula is the only portion of concerned with Wins and Losses (25%) and I'm not changing any opponents (75%), I can switch around some W and L to see how it impacts our final RPI.

So, i took our schedule as it was and scheduled out every game according to it either being 0.7, 1, or 1.3 depending on if it was a home game or road game W/L. That left me with an adjusted winning percentage of 38% (18.6 - 30.3).

So, I then manipulated our season results to come up with this sensitivity analysis:

I honestly don't think we make the tournament under any of the scenarios I listed above. So, the next time someone starts talking about "All we have to do is win" with regards to our RPI formula - that's not the case. Even if we go undefeated outside of SEC play, we finish with an RPI of #56. Maybe we're on the bubble, maybe we are not.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Good stuff Strat. There is much misunderstanding out there about baseball RPI.

 

[engie]

I'm one of the ones that flipped out about the schedule from the day it was introduced. Of course you can tremendously manipulate RPI in scheduling. And we've done an absolutely nightmarish job of handling the part of that we can control(OOC).

But that said, you can't just change one factor and tell much from it. Of course, we were a LONG way away last year. But if you go undefeated in the non-con, you don't end up as bad as we were in the SEC, etc. It all runs together. So, in reality, you have to combine factors.

If we just win the games we scored 5+ in at the rate that Vandy, OM, and LSU won those games last year -- we add ~ 10 wins and remove ~ 10 losses and are comfortably in the tournament. Figuring 6 of those are at home, we go to 28-20.9. .1431 weighted adjustment. RPI #46 and in the tournament.

 

[maroonmania]

RPI is a joke, BUT as long as the committee uses it you have to try and manipulate it to your advantage. In RPI its much more important about who you play and where you play them than it is whether your team is worth a crap (see OM baseball this past season). Of course, you still have to have a winning record.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I'm one of the ones that flipped out about the schedule from the day it was introduced. Of course you can tremendously manipulate RPI in scheduling. And we've done an absolutely nightmarish job of handling the part of that we can control(OOC).

But that said, you can't just change one factor and tell much from it. Of course, we were a LONG way away last year. But if you go undefeated in the non-con, you don't end up as bad as we were in the SEC, etc. It all runs together. So, in reality, you have to combine factors.

If we just win the games we scored 5+ in at the rate that Vandy, OM, and LSU won those games last year -- we add ~ 10 wins and remove ~ 10 losses and are comfortably in the tournament. Figuring 6 of those are at home, we go to 28-20.9. .1431 weighted adjustment. RPI #46 and in the tournament.

We have been so unbelievably bad at this relative to some other teams- and it's something I think you and I (among others) have agreed on for years. Hopefully it changes soon and Cohen drops the BS "we need to give our fans as many opportunities to watch us as possible" crap.

This year's OOC schedule should give us a good idea of what to expect going forward.

 

[patdog]

We couldn't do a better job of scheduling ourselves down in seeding and out of regionals if we tried. It's like we intentionally try to schedule for the worst RPI possible. Sadly, I don't think it will change as long as Cohen is our coach.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

RPI is a joke, BUT as long as the committee uses it you have to try and manipulate it to your advantage. In RPI its much more important about who you play and where you play them than it is whether your team is worth a crap (see OM baseball this past season). Of course, you still have to have a winning record.

If you schedule intelligently and have a winning record, you're pretty much a tourney lock as an SEC team. That's the bottom line.

It's not a perfect system- but it's the one that's in place, so we're the stupid ones for not taking advantage of it.

 

[57stratdawg]

I would now like to do something similar with regards to changing our opponents, but I unfortunately do not have those capabilities. However, I have a feeling that if we took a 'rain out' against the 5 or 6 SWAC schools that we played, you'd see our RPI jump up to around #100.

To me, this whole discussions comes down to 'which is easier':

1) Being undefeated entering SEC play
2) Not scheduling any SWAC schools

 

[maroonmania]

so we're the stupid ones for not taking advantage of it.

Fully agree with that sentiment.