For those who like it simple: 99% positive Bama is in.
For those who care for the reasoning, read on.
Knowns:
Bama #2 in final Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin computer rankings
Final AP and Coaches Polls
Unknowns:
Harris Poll and other 4 computer rankings.
Coaches Poll:
Last Week Bama .9566, this week .9485
Last Week OK St .8440, this week .9268
Ok St made .0908
Ap Poll(just for reference):
Last Week Bama .9600, this week .9453
Last Week OK St .8573, this week .9333
Ok St made up .0906
Computers:
Last Week, Bama 3,2,3,2,2,2. This week, x,x,x,x,2,2
Last Week, OK St 2,3,2,3,3,3. This week, x,x,x,x,3,3
For sake of argument, we are assuming Bama drops to 3rd in all 4 other computer rankings.
Drop Best and Worse computer rankings.
Bama = 3,3,3,2 = 104-sum = .930
Ok St = 2,2,2,3 =104-sum = .950
Harris Projection:
In order to tie:
Bama (.9485+.930+harris%)/3
Ok St (.9268+.950=harris%)/3
Total Difference, Bama leads by .0017
Thus, Ok St has to beat bama by 4.37 total votes. This means 55 of Harris Poll's 103 voters must vote OK St #2 to unseat Bama.
Reasons this is unlikely:
In the other 2 polls released, Ok St made up .0906 and .0908 respectively. It's safe to assume the Harris falls very near this same number(actually a percentage), which would mean(including all previous math) that Bama wins .9415 to .9353. For OK st to get in, the would need to make up .1206 in the Harris, meaning they would need to make up 3% more ground in this poll than the other two(other two separated by 0.2%). Thus, they would need to outpace their "rate-of-gain" in the other two polls by an extra 85 votes.
My guess: .9415 Bama, .9353 Ok St... or Bama by about 0.6%...
For those who care for the reasoning, read on.
Knowns:
Bama #2 in final Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin computer rankings
Final AP and Coaches Polls
Unknowns:
Harris Poll and other 4 computer rankings.
Coaches Poll:
Last Week Bama .9566, this week .9485
Last Week OK St .8440, this week .9268
Ok St made .0908
Ap Poll(just for reference):
Last Week Bama .9600, this week .9453
Last Week OK St .8573, this week .9333
Ok St made up .0906
Computers:
Last Week, Bama 3,2,3,2,2,2. This week, x,x,x,x,2,2
Last Week, OK St 2,3,2,3,3,3. This week, x,x,x,x,3,3
For sake of argument, we are assuming Bama drops to 3rd in all 4 other computer rankings.
Drop Best and Worse computer rankings.
Bama = 3,3,3,2 = 104-sum = .930
Ok St = 2,2,2,3 =104-sum = .950
Harris Projection:
In order to tie:
Bama (.9485+.930+harris%)/3
Ok St (.9268+.950=harris%)/3
Total Difference, Bama leads by .0017
Thus, Ok St has to beat bama by 4.37 total votes. This means 55 of Harris Poll's 103 voters must vote OK St #2 to unseat Bama.
Reasons this is unlikely:
In the other 2 polls released, Ok St made up .0906 and .0908 respectively. It's safe to assume the Harris falls very near this same number(actually a percentage), which would mean(including all previous math) that Bama wins .9415 to .9353. For OK st to get in, the would need to make up .1206 in the Harris, meaning they would need to make up 3% more ground in this poll than the other two(other two separated by 0.2%). Thus, they would need to outpace their "rate-of-gain" in the other two polls by an extra 85 votes.
My guess: .9415 Bama, .9353 Ok St... or Bama by about 0.6%...
