Before the KY game, Mullen was interviewed on the radio and

[elmsurfer1]

asked about his team being 3 & 3. Mullens stated the SOS as a factor and then injuries. There was an awkward pause after the comment and then went on about the opposition teams win-loss record regarding SOS.
What was he talking about then? SOS is easiest among the SEC.

 

[engie]

asked about his team being 3 & 3. Mullens stated the SOS as a factor and then injuries. There was an awkward pause after the comment and then went on about the opposition teams win-loss record regarding SOS.
What was he talking about then? SOS is easiest among the SEC.

Current SOS per Sagarin (actual overall ranking per Sagarin)
Georgia - 1(20)
Ole Miss - 2(26)
Tennessee - 5(44)
Kentucky - 6(83)
South Carolina - 11(12)
Florida - 14(23)
Arkansas - 17(71)
Vanderbilt - 25(45)
Mizzou - 29(8
LSU - 30(6)
Texas A&M - 32(9)
Alabama - 41(1)
Auburn - 51(21)
MSU - 58(53)

As of right now, we're the 12th best team, with the easiest schedule... Good news is the SOS will improve. Bad news is the actual ranking is highly likely to go the other way.

The worst(Sagarin) team we've had under Mullen is #45 in 2009 against the #1 SOS.
2010 - #15
2011 - #31
2012 - #42

 

[57stratdawg]

Current SOS per Sagarin (actual overall ranking per Sagarin)
Georgia - 1(20)
Ole Miss - 2(26)
Tennessee - 5(44)
Kentucky - 6(83)
South Carolina - 11(12)
Florida - 14(23)
Arkansas - 17(71)
Vanderbilt - 25(45)
Mizzou - 29(8
LSU - 30(6)
Texas A&M - 32(9)
Alabama - 41(1)
Auburn - 51(21)
MSU - 58(53)

As of right now, we're the 12th best team, with the easiest schedule... Good news is the SOS will improve. Bad news is the actual ranking is highly likely to go the other way.

The worst(Sagarin) team we've had under Mullen is #45 in 2009 against the #1 SOS.
2010 - #15
2011 - #31
2012 - #42

I was about to post something about this. We had people push an agenda against the AD coming into the year that our strength of schedule was going to be the reason we didn't make a bowl, but our schedule isn't THAT tough. There's a real chance that at the end of the year we will have only played one top ten team - Bama.

That's pretty manageable, IMO. There is no where else to put the 'fallout' from the Ok State game except at Mullen's feet. It's not Scott Stricklin's fault we weren't ready to play that game.

 

[engie]

I was about to post something about this. We had people push an agenda against the AD coming into the year that our strength of schedule was going to be the reason we didn't make a bowl, but our schedule isn't THAT tough. There's a real chance that at the end of the year we will have only played one top ten team - Bama.

That's pretty manageable, IMO. There is no where else to put the 'fallout' from the Ok State game except at Mullen's feet. It's not Scott Stricklin's fault we weren't ready to play that game.

I agree.

The thing I don't understand is how our fans are complaining that "the schedule set Mullen up to fail". What's becoming obvious is that, in the past 2 years, our expectations have dropped off the map. And that's an indictment of the direction of the program.

USCe was 5-1 coming to Starkville in 2011(we were 3-3) coming off an SEC championship appearance. Relf was basically out. Tobias was out. Our OL had been exposed. We were starting Day and Clausell as RS FR. We'd just squeaked past UAB in Birmingham in a terrible(at the time) performance that Russell saved us from, and it was Russell's first career start. The line on that USC game? USC -3. It's -13 and growing on the road this year against a team that is honestly not quite as good as that 2011 USCe team.

We're at least a 7 point worse team than we were in 2011...

 

[johnson86-1]

Current SOS per Sagarin

SOS is a terrible metric. You get hammered for playing the 120th best team compared to the 100th best team.

What matters to me is winnable games. So far we played a pretty good teams in Ok St and Auburn and a good but very beatable team in LSU. Then we've played two patsies and two bad teams. 4-3 with that schedule is not far off of where we should be. Had we lost a nailbiter to Ok St, kept it close against LSU, and handily beaten UK and BG, I'd say we are generally playing up to expectations and that sometimes close games go against you.

But we no showed against one pretty good team and competed but came up short against the other. We competed for 3 quarters against a good LSU team. We eked by against the two bad teams. I'd say we've underperformed badly. The good news is we still have a relatively easy schedule from here on out and Mullen doesn't have to do anything crazy to have a good season. We get a good but beatable USCe, a good but very flawed A&M, a pretty good UM team, and a bad arkansas team. Win two of those and he has done enough, even though it's still troubling how the team has looked over the past 12 months. Win 3 and the magic is back.

 

[Hanmudog]

But we no showed against one pretty good team and competed but came up short against the other. We competed for 3 quarters against a good LSU team. We eked by against the two bad teams. I'd say we've underperformed badly. The good news is we still have a relatively easy schedule from here on out and Mullen doesn't have to do anything crazy to have a good season. We get a good but beatable USCe, a good but very flawed A&M, a pretty good UM team, and a bad arkansas team. Win two of those and he has done enough, even though it's still troubling how the team has looked over the past 12 months. Win 3 and the magic is back.

Easy remaining schedule? We play the BCS #1, #12 (away), #14 (away), and an Ole Miss that will likely be ranked when we play them. So basically we will play four ranked teams in our last five.

 

[maroonmania]

SOS is a terrible metric. You get hammered for playing the 120th best team compared to the 100th best team.

What matters to me is winnable games. So far we played a pretty good teams in Ok St and Auburn and a good but very beatable team in LSU. Then we've played two patsies and two bad teams. 4-3 with that schedule is not far off of where we should be. Had we lost a nailbiter to Ok St, kept it close against LSU, and handily beaten UK and BG, I'd say we are generally playing up to expectations and that sometimes close games go against you.

But we no showed against one pretty good team and competed but came up short against the other. We competed for 3 quarters against a good LSU team. We eked by against the two bad teams. I'd say we've underperformed badly. The good news is we still have a relatively easy schedule from here on out and Mullen doesn't have to do anything crazy to have a good season. We get a good but beatable USCe, a good but very flawed A&M, a pretty good UM team, and a bad arkansas team. Win two of those and he has done enough, even though it's still troubling how the team has looked over the past 12 months. Win 3 and the magic is back.

You are correct, SOS is not a very good indicator because it would rank playing the #1, #2, #99, #100 teams the same strength of schedule as playing the #49, #50, #51 and #52. But Team A has 2 winnable games while Team B would have 4 winnable games.

Very high likelihood that 3 weeks from now we will be 4-6 with 6 losses against the current #1, #11, #12, #13, #14 and #18 teams in the BCS standings. But yet our SOS still won't be great because Alcorn and Troy are thrown in there as 2 of our wins.

 

[gtowndawg]

Can I add one more thing he said in that same interview?

Jim asked him something like "is there anything in the kicking game that needs improvement?"

Mullen talked about punt coverage needs to be better, need more punts inside the 20, kickoff team doing decent...NOTHING, not one word about Bell or field goals. Is he that stupid or that hard headed? It pissed me off.

 

[UIUCDog]

I’m just guessing he doesn’t want to throw Bell under the bus or get even further into his head by calling him out by name in an interview.

That said, c’mon Dan, that ship has sailed. You have GOT to give the backup a shot at this point.

 

[SkullCandy.sixpack]

SOS may have Bama fans sending out SOSs of their own if Bama wins out but gets left out of the NC because they played awful OOC and the worst teams in the SEC East. There is a real possibility that at the end of the year they will have play no teams currently ranked in the top 10, and depending on how things play out, only 2-3 in the top 20 (contenders being ATM, Auburn, LSU and East champion). It's quite possible LSU and the East champion won't be in the top 20. Auburn could easily lose 2 of its next 4 games.

Hate to say it, but I'd love to see Bama locked out by their SOS. Serve them right for scheduling cupcakes for OOC (only Va Tech--beat by Duke last week-- is even worth padding up for) and the 2 weakest SEC E teams. And the icing on the cupcake schedule is having open dates before LSU and ATM.

 

[maroonmania]

Jim asked him something like "is there anything in the kicking game that needs improvement?"

Mullen talked about punt coverage needs to be better, need more punts inside the 20, kickoff team doing decent...NOTHING, not one word about Bell or field goals. Is he that stupid or that hard headed? It pissed me off.

Seriously, there are times I hear Mullen talk where it truly seems he is detached from reality.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Honestly

I couldn't care less if he says one thing or another about it. I just want him to DO something about it.

 

[engie]

Jim asked him something like "is there anything in the kicking game that needs improvement?"

Mullen talked about punt coverage needs to be better, need more punts inside the 20, kickoff team doing decent...NOTHING, not one word about Bell or field goals. Is he that stupid or that hard headed? It pissed me off.

Detail-oriented with the media at first. Notice the depth and honesty with which he answers these questions. There is another 9 minute part of this interview -- going a total of 18 minutes or so.


Compared to nonstop coach speak that basically does nothing but pump sunshine now. For 6 minutes. It's the same, exact press conference 4 years later.


He could buy himself ALOT of good faith if he could take an honest look at himself and other shortcomings we're experiencing and start relaying that to everyone. The "everything is great" sunshine pumping is really, really worn thin -- and does it's own fair share to feed the perception that he's in cruise control.

 

[engie]

Seriously, there are times I hear Mullen talk where it truly seems he is detached from reality.

Nailed it. That's what I am attempting to show examples of in my post...

 

[dawgstudent]

Yep - fans want to endear themselves to their coach. I didn't give a **** what or how he said it when he exceeded our expectations. Now that we aren't moving forward (and I'm still not in the "fire him" camp) - you get tired of the robotic answers.

 

[gtowndawg]

I'm cool with not saying Bell's name. I really am BUT

just admit we have field goal issues that need improvement. That's all he'd have to say. But it's like he knew what Jim was driving at and he wasn't going to give him or the fans any satisfaction.

 

[engie]

Yep - fans want to endear themselves to their coach. I didn't give a **** what or how he said it when he exceeded our expectations. Now that we aren't moving forward (and I'm still not in the "fire him" camp) - you get tired of the robotic answers.

Good point. If he would just be honest about the issues he's facing and steps he is taking to fix them, he could buy alot of good faith from the fanbase. Even on the totally outlandish things like Bell, everyone would feel better if he said "well, we've had a bunch of unexpected trouble with field goal kicking. We've been working hard on it in practice. Devon has responded by hitting x of z under the maximum amount of pressure we can put on him in a practice situation(give a description how). We've considered going with Sobeisk, but here's the reasons why we haven't given him a shot yet."

 

[johnson86-1]

Easy remaining schedule? We play the BCS #1, #12 (away), #14 (away), and an Ole Miss that will likely be ranked when we play them. So basically we will play four ranked teams in our last five.

I'm comparing it to previous schedules we've played under Mullen. 80% of our games are winnable. In any other year, if Mullen pissed away two games like the Ok St. and Auburn game, that was pretty much all of the teams that weren't either cupcakes or unbeatable. Easy is still the wrong word; I guess I should have said the schedule allows our season to be salvageable.

Winning two of those games looks hard now, but if you had told me at the beginning of the season Ok St., Auburn, USCe, A&M, LSU, and UM would all be pretty good but very beatable, I would have said no way we don't win one of them as long as we compete in every game and we don't throw any away being stupid. We threw away the Ok St game; now Mullen has to do a good enough job to make up for it.

 

[RocketDawg]

I that SOS up to this point in the season, or SOS overall? If overall, I'd not say ours is much easier than anybody else in the West. We all play the same teams; if anything, theirs should be easier since we play them, and they play us.

Look at Ole Miss: They play the West teams. So do we. They played Texas, who isn't ranked. We played OK State, who IS ranked. They played Vandy ... unranked. We played UK ... unranked. We play SC ... ranked. They play MIssouri ... ranked (and got beat by SC).

Their cupcake games: SE Missouri, Idaho, and Troy. Ours: Troy, Alcorn, and BG. I'd say there's not much difference there, but if there is, we have the edge with BG.

So that ranking has to be the first 7 games, not all 12. I might believe it then because we have the meat of our schedule left (a horrifying thought ....).

 

[RocketDawg]

If Bama wins out and gets left out of the National Championship, it'll be because Oregon (assuming they win out) whined so much last year (or was it the year before?). The selection committee will figure that Bama and the SEC has already had the NC enough. At this point, FSU probably deserves to be in, but their schedule has been anything but tough.

 

[FormerlyHighLifeRebel]

It's not just an average.


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.</pre>

 

[FormerlyHighLifeRebel]

It's just the games played so far. It's not supposed to be 100% accurate, it's just an indicator or a rating. With that being said, the West teams only make up half of the schedule. Say what you want about Vandy, they are substantially better than Kentucky. Before the Idaho game, OM had played the toughest seven games. One cupcake, one top 30 team (according to Sagarin who actually has Texas ranked 22 right now which pisses me off, but the ratings are the ratings) a top 50 team, and four top 15 teams with the majority of those games being on the road.

SEC teams will begin to regress to the mean, but the average SOS in the SEC will continue to get better. MSU will most likely remain below that average, and OM will most likely remain above it. After all, Mizzou and Vandy > Kentucky and South Carolina right now.

I became sort of obsessed with these rankings last year, and I've been watching them this year. Every week I post the current rankings of each SEC team and a few others on Nafoom if you're interested.

 

[FormerlyHighLifeRebel]

Even a traditionally easier SEC schedule is tougher than a PAC 12 or Big 12 schedule. Bama's SOS right now is 41, Oregon 54, Florida State 68. The only teams in the Sagarin top 10 with a tougher schedule than Bama are LSU, TAMU, and Mizzou.

 

[thatsbaseball]

The 9 game conference schedule will cure this big time...it`ll 17 up some other things but it will cure this.

 

[SkullCandy.sixpack]

True, but Florida state still has Miami (possibly twice) and Florida, and Oregon has Stanford and the PAC championship. Bama has LSU (who could easily lose 4 this year) and auburn (lowest SOS in the sec) and whatever is left of the sec east. If the east opponent is weak, they were saying on Game Day that Bama could be left out.

how sad...

 

[FormerlyHighLifeRebel]

Two things: 1. If Bama is left out, it won't be because SOS. They'll have to play the East Champion as well as Auburn who may end up being a top 10 team before it's all over. 2. What SOS ratings are you looking at? Auburn does not have the easiest SOS in the SEC so far this year.

 

[BiscuitEater]

USCe was in almost the same ...

The thing I don't understand is how our fans are complaining that "the schedule set Mullen up to fail". What's becoming obvious is that, in the past 2 years, our expectations have dropped off the map. And that's an indictment of the direction of the program.

exact situation in 2007 that State finds itself right now. In Spurrier's first two years, he had 7-5 and 8-5 records and went bowling. More was expected in '07 but the team floundered to a 6-6 record with no bowl.

Many USCe fans thought that he had lost interest and were ready to bring in 'new blood.' Cooler heads prevailed, they stuck with Spurrier and he has taken them to bowls in every year since '07. He has never won the east, never taken them to Atlanta but he has made them a consistent winner.

 

[Henry322]

"He has never won the east, never taken them to Atlanta" Won the east and went to Atlanta in 2010.

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

SOS may have Bama fans sending out SOSs of their own if Bama wins out but gets left out of the NC because they played awful OOC and the worst teams in the SEC East. There is a real possibility that at the end of the year they will have play no teams currently ranked in the top 10, and depending on how things play out, only 2-3 in the top 20 (contenders being ATM, Auburn, LSU and East champion). It's quite possible LSU and the East champion won't be in the top 20. Auburn could easily lose 2 of its next 4 games.

Hate to say it, but I'd love to see Bama locked out by their SOS. Serve them right for scheduling cupcakes for OOC (only Va Tech--beat by Duke last week-- is even worth padding up for) and the 2 weakest SEC E teams. And the icing on the cupcake schedule is having open dates before LSU and ATM.

Playing 2-3 ranked teams + VT is just as tough or more tough of a schedule as Florida State has to play. Not sure about Oregon.

 

[engie]

exact situation in 2007 that State finds itself right now. In Spurrier's first two years, he had 7-5 and 8-5 records and went bowling. More was expected in '07 but the team floundered to a 6-6 record with no bowl.

6-6 is "floundering" at USCe -- but good for a lifetime contract at MSU(when you don't even meet that threshold in likely 2 of 5)? Spurrier also only went 6-6 once. Won 7 regular season games every other year at USCe. And they play Clemson every single year OOC.

Many USCe fans thought that he had lost interest and were ready to bring in 'new blood.' Cooler heads prevailed, they stuck with Spurrier and he has taken them to bowls in every year since '07. He has never won the east, never taken them to Atlanta but he has made them a consistent winner.

Ignoring the obvious oversight -- if MSU hired Pete Carroll -- and he won 7, 7, 7, 7, 6 -- his seat wouldn't be warm at all. That to say -- hiring a proven winner earns more good faith than an assistant to a proven winner who has now won 20 in a row at his new job.

I'm on the record multiple times -- if Mullen wins 6 this year, I'm not in favor of getting rid of him.