I base this on CDC estimates on three to four actual cases per confirmed case and a CFR of about 1.7%, and also, on the CFR of Federal inmates, who are tested on a regular basis (thus, few, if any, cases that are not known), seriology testing, and CFRs from nations like Iceland which had near universal testing since March 2020. With vaccinations, it will further decrease. The CFR is the UK (which only includes known cases) has gone from 2% to about .3% in the last six months, courtesy of the vaccines. The Bubonic Plague, this is not.