Right now, Lunardi has us as a 7 seed. We are the third 7 seed.
A 7 seed wins 61.3% of the time against a 10 seed. A 10 seed is typically a Power Conference team that was on the bubble, or slightly higher than the bubble. We have been pretty decent against this level of team this year, but that loss to Oklahoma is out there.
A 6 seed wins 60.9% of the time against an 11 seed. The 6 seed is possibly matched up with one of the first four winners. The 11 seeds that are the First Four winners are 9-9 (.500) against 6 seeds. Four of those nine winners have made it to the second weekend and two of them made it to the Final Four.
I'm not sure there is much advantage to being a 6 over a 7 in the first round, but there is a decent advantage in the second round. 29 percent of 6 seeds have advanced to the second weekend (usually having to beat s 3 seed) and 18 percent of 7 seeds have made the second weekend (usually having to beat a 2 seed)
Lunardi's 6-7 seeds in order:
UCLA (at Northwestern, vs. USC)
Louisville (vs. Cal, vs. Stanford)
Marquette (at UConn, St. John's)
St. Mary's (WCC Tournament 1 seed)
Kansas (at Houston, vs. Arizona)
Memphis (at UTSA, vs South Florida)
Mississippi State (vs Texas, at Arkansas)
Ole Miss (vs. Tennessee, at Florida)
We could jump Memphis without Memphis having to lose if it comes down to one of us being a 6 and the other being a 7. Kansas has a pair of tough ranked games that they could drop two.
St. Mary's is likely going to stay a 6 (WCC has that weird ladder format). Marquette has two tough games. If we win 2 and Kansas and Marquette lose two, I think we will be in position for the 6 seed.
A 7 seed wins 61.3% of the time against a 10 seed. A 10 seed is typically a Power Conference team that was on the bubble, or slightly higher than the bubble. We have been pretty decent against this level of team this year, but that loss to Oklahoma is out there.
A 6 seed wins 60.9% of the time against an 11 seed. The 6 seed is possibly matched up with one of the first four winners. The 11 seeds that are the First Four winners are 9-9 (.500) against 6 seeds. Four of those nine winners have made it to the second weekend and two of them made it to the Final Four.
I'm not sure there is much advantage to being a 6 over a 7 in the first round, but there is a decent advantage in the second round. 29 percent of 6 seeds have advanced to the second weekend (usually having to beat s 3 seed) and 18 percent of 7 seeds have made the second weekend (usually having to beat a 2 seed)
Lunardi's 6-7 seeds in order:
UCLA (at Northwestern, vs. USC)
Louisville (vs. Cal, vs. Stanford)
Marquette (at UConn, St. John's)
St. Mary's (WCC Tournament 1 seed)
Kansas (at Houston, vs. Arizona)
Memphis (at UTSA, vs South Florida)
Mississippi State (vs Texas, at Arkansas)
Ole Miss (vs. Tennessee, at Florida)
We could jump Memphis without Memphis having to lose if it comes down to one of us being a 6 and the other being a 7. Kansas has a pair of tough ranked games that they could drop two.
St. Mary's is likely going to stay a 6 (WCC has that weird ladder format). Marquette has two tough games. If we win 2 and Kansas and Marquette lose two, I think we will be in position for the 6 seed.
