I really think there is more disarray at Bird than since about 1981. I don't mean that in a bad way, but having some real studs graduate and their coach resign late in the year put them in a position they haven't been in before. Tony Nicely is one of the best men I know, and I think he will do a good job at the helm, but it's just a big change for any program to lose a head coach, and when the program is as successful as Bird, there's not a lot of room to move up.
For the record, the last time Bird was worse than 8 wins was 1998. This is also the last time they failed to make the round of 16 in the playoffs.
I can't imagine Bird worse than 7-3, and I'm certain they're a playoff team. I also think you don't want them late in the season as the players get some experience under their belts. For the first time in quite some time however, I think that first round playoff game will be interesting for the Skyhawks.
For the record, I bet the Bird staff relishes not being picked as a state title contender right out of the gate for a change. I really wouldn't be surprised if they drew a straight flush this year and won double digit games, either.