BOLDEN, the time is nearing.

Showenuff

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Yea. Points are being missed here. I thinks as long as Giles Knee heals well, (which i feel it is) we are going to be incredible. Giles, Tatum, Jefferson, Jackson, Kennard, Thornton, DeLaurier, Jeter and so on. Got a gut feeling Grayson returns.
 

crazyduke3

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That team was a steady PG away from being a Final Four team. When Quinn was good, they rolled, when he wasn't, meh.

Eh. That team played the worst defense of any Duke team I've ever seen. They NEVER got stops. I can't remember what the points given up in paint ranking was but it was actually like in the 300's.
 

pisgah101

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Eh. That team played the worst defense of any Duke team I've ever seen. They NEVER got stops. I can't remember what the points given up in paint ranking was but it was actually like in the 300's.

That mercer game was so winnable but we couldn't get even 1 stop and that was about all we needed. I was embarrassed
 

twdukefan

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Yea. Points are being missed here. I thinks as long as Giles Knee heals well, (which i feel it is) we are going to be incredible. Giles, Tatum, Jefferson, Jackson, Kennard, Thornton, DeLaurier, Jeter and so on. Got a gut feeling Grayson returns.
I think he comes back for his junior year and leaves after
 
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Eh. That team played the worst defense of any Duke team I've ever seen. They NEVER got stops. I can't remember what the points given up in paint ranking was but it was actually like in the 300's.
That team drove me crazy. We were SO talented offensively, but had no chance defensively in the paint. I will never forget our loss at Syracuse that year, we were scoring at will from the outside, but they were getting easy dunks every possession.
 

dukehokie

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Worst case scenario: starting 5 of Thornton, Luke, Tatum, Giles and Amile.

Reserves: Matt, Frank, Chase

Deep help from bigs Javin and Vrank.

That's a very good defensive team. Probably the offense will take a half season to gel. Throw in Grayson and we've got plenty of punch and depth and will be top 5. Without him, we need to stay healthy, and we're a solid top 10 team. Either way we're in the hunt and sweeping Car-olina

Offense will be fine with Gray or not. Defense always takes longer to gel. Tatum is gifted enough to make life easy. Derryck will be much better with a summer under his belt, if not, we're looking at another Quinn scenario.

The big key early on will be if Harry can come into the summer healthy.
 
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duke0527

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I expect K to go with a deeper rotation than this year or years past and especially in the front court.

I got to think he'll see it wise to be cautious with Giles and preserve his health for the stretch run.
 
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While I am in the camp that believes DT will make huge strides and be a much better player next season. It sure will be nice to have Frank as another option, in case DT has a "sophomore slump."

Next year's team ceiling will be dependent on just how good Giles and Tatum really are. If they are as good as advertised, we will be top 3, without Grayson and Bolden.
 

aah555

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That mercer game was so winnable but we couldn't get even 1 stop and that was about all we needed. I was embarrassed

IMO, the more fundamental problem with that team was that it didn't play well under pressure. That entire season Duke tended to come up small in the last 5 minutes of close games; and the Mercer game was no different. We were in position to win that game and then stopped executing on both sides of the ball during the pivotal stretch that cost us the game.

Although the strengths / weaknesses of this year's squad mirrors 13/14, I'm far less concerned about our ability to compete if we find ourselves in a close ballgame down the stretch. Even against ND where we gave up a 16 pt. lead, we didn't fold and actually made some good plays in the last couple minutes of regulation. Also, UNC-Wilmington does not have the one attribute that has bothered Grayson all season -- length at the rim. Unless they can get Grayson in foul trouble by taking charges (which may in turn limit his aggressiveness driving), I think Grayson's going to be extremely difficult for UNC-Wilmington to handle near the rim -- and, to the extent he misses, Plumlee should have a field day on the glass. While I certainly think we'll struggle to defend (which will cause a lot of heartburn), I'm not sure UNC-Wilmington has what it takes to prevent us from scoring at will. From what I've read / seen since the game was announced, I think UNC-Wilmington bears a lot of resemblance to VCU and, to a lesser extent, NC State (at least offensively) -- two teams that generally gave us a hard time, but which we ultimately beat.
 
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IMO, the more fundamental problem with that team was that it didn't play well under pressure. That entire season Duke tended to come up small in the last 5 minutes of close games; and the Mercer game was no different.

Although I clearly see the parallels between this year's squad and the 13-14 squad in terms of strengths / weaknesses, I'm far less concerned about our ability to compete if we find ourselves in a close ballgame down the stretch. The one thing that has bothered Grayson all season is length at the rim. UNC-Wilmington does not have that. Unless they can get Grayson in foul trouble by taking charges (which may in turn limit his aggressiveness driving), I think Grayson's going to be extremely difficult for UNC-Wilmington to handle near the rim -- and, to the extent he misses, Plumlee should have a field day on the glass. While I certainly think we'll struggle to defend (which will cause a lot of heartburn), I'm not sure UNC-Wilmington has much of a chance to defend us either.
If we struggle to defend UNC Wilmington, we are not gonna make it very far.
I really think we need to make a statement and it would be HUGE if Brandon & Grayson could get some rest the last 5 minutes of the game. Was the FSU game our only "easy win" this last month?????? We need an easy one badly.
Baylor is a whole different animal, while they can't shoot, we will be needing to defend 2nd 3rd and even 4th shots.......
 

duke0527

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If we struggle to defend UNC Wilmington, we are not gonna make it very far.
I really think we need to make a statement and it would be HUGE if Brandon & Grayson could get some rest the last 5 minutes of the game. Was the FSU game our only "easy win" this last month?????? We need an easy one badly.
Baylor is a whole different animal, while they can't shoot, we will be needing to defend 2nd 3rd and even 4th shots.......
I think Yale is going to clip Baylor
 

aah555

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If we struggle to defend UNC Wilmington, we are not gonna make it very far.
I really think we need to make a statement and it would be HUGE if Brandon & Grayson could get some rest the last 5 minutes of the game. Was the FSU game our only "easy win" this last month?????? We need an easy one badly.
Baylor is a whole different animal, while they can't shoot, we will be needing to defend 2nd 3rd and even 4th shots.......

We may win with a bit of cushion at the end -- but, frankly, nothing I've seen from Duke post-Jefferson injury would suggest we're going to blow out UNC-Wilmington. I think the best case would be that we have a big enough lead (e.g., 8-12 pt.) where we can go into our prevent offense and shorten the game. Grayson's almost certainly going to play 38+ minutes (assuming no foul issue), and Ingram's probably going to be the same -- though I could see them taking him out a few more minutes when UNC-Wilmington goes with 4 guards.
 

duke0527

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After 12 and 14 I never overlook a first round opponent. I do always follow the lines though when picking brackets. Duke line started at -9.5 and immediately jumped to -11.
 
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hpnole

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We may win with a bit of cushion at the end -- but, frankly, nothing I've seen from Duke post-Jefferson injury would suggest we're going to blow out UNC-Wilmington. I think the best case would be that we have a big enough lead (e.g., 8-12 pt.) where we can go into our prevent offense and shorten the game. Grayson's almost certainly going to play 38+ minutes (assuming no foul issue), and Ingram's probably going to be the same -- though I could see them taking him out a few more minutes when UNC-Wilmington goes with 4 guards.
I hate prevent offenses. The longer you hold onto he ball and throw it around, instead of attacking the basket, the more chance of turning over.
 

DukeRulesBasketball

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If we win Thursday, I will be tuning in very closely to the Baylor Yale match up right after!
I imagine it is going to be a MAJOR contrast in styles.
Please don't use IF. Lol! It gives me horrible flashbacks to 2012 and 2014. We will win Thursday and move on to play Saturday. I think the Yale/Baylor game will be closer than expected though.
 

jnastasi

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Do most believe Grayson is gone after this year regardless of how we do in the tourney?

I really believe, more than filling the 5 spot, the development of DT will dictate whether we win a national championship next year. Every championship team had an elite point guard.
 
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Do most believe Grayson is gone after this year regardless of how we do in the tourney?

I really believe, more than filling the 5 spot, the development of DT will dictate whether we win a national championship next year. Every championship team had an elite point guard.
Agreed. However, with the way the game is called now (more fouls, higher scoring, which I enjoy) depth in the frontcourt is crucial. See Duke 2016. We don't have a 2015 title without Amile backing up Jah.
 

DukeDenver

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Do most believe Grayson is gone after this year regardless of how we do in the tourney?

I really believe, more than filling the 5 spot, the development of DT will dictate whether we win a national championship next year. Every championship team had an elite point guard.

DT just isn't a natural passer. He is a scorer who can pass off of a drive if doubled, a little like Marquis Teague. Has he thrown one lob pass over the top all year? How about a back door?

The kid's value is in those handles, his shot and his on ball D. He becomes elite once he can hit clutch shots in tight games and can get up to these numbers:
5 assists with only 2.5 turnovers
40% from deep
45% overall fg
better than 78% FT

He is well on his way IMO. He'll have those stats within 2 years.
 
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DT just isn't a natural passer. He is a scorer who can pass off of a drive if doubled, a little like Marquis Teague. Has he thrown one lob pass over the top all year? How about a back door?

The kid's value is in those handles, his shot and his on ball D. He becomes elite once he can hit clutch shots in tight games and can get up to these numbers:
5 assists with only 2.5 turnovers
40% from deep
45% overall fg
better than 78% FT

He is well on his way IMO. He'll have those stats within 2 years.
Jon Scheyer was not a natual passer, by any stretch...........
 

HuffyJB

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Do most believe Grayson is gone after this year regardless of how we do in the tourney?

I really believe, more than filling the 5 spot, the development of DT will dictate whether we win a national championship next year. Every championship team had an elite point guard.

I tend to think he is gone, but that isn't based on anything specific to Grayson, just what people in his shoes tend to do. Tyus Jones, for example, left to go #24, and I think Grayson is projected to potentially go a bit higher.

DT's development is the key, followed closely by Chase's. With Amile's return, their are post options, but DT is really the only true point. Guys like Jackson can certainly do it, but he seems to be more of a combo (and he'll be a freshman). If DT is a reliable every-game PG, that is a very big deal for Duke. With the guys we know Duke will have (Giles, Tatum, Kennard, Jones, etc.) we know there is scoring punch. Someone needs to steer the ship.
 

Showenuff

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I pray for better defense next season. I don't see how it could not improve with the speed and athleticism we gain.
 
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Scheyer's assist #'s each year
Freshman-1.8
Sophomore- 2.4
Junior- 2.8
Senior 4.9
I do not consider those to be "natural passer" assist numbers.

However, I agree that he did have solid anticipation and vision.
But I hope we can all agree that he was never a Natural Point Guard.
The 2010 duo of Scheyer and Smith worked so well because they could split the ball handling duties, and both guys were more than capable being spot up 3 pt shooters.

All that I am trying to say is that DT "has the ingredients" to be a natural point guard, mainly due to the fact of his size and he will never be a stud spot up shooter. I believe next year he will take a huge leap, anticipate passes much better, and throw lots of lobs to Tatum/Giles.
 
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If we're going to have a 'non-natural' point guard next year, Frank Jackson may be that guy. By all accounts he can shoot better than DT and can play at least passable D.
 
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If we're going to have a 'non-natural' point guard next year, Frank Jackson may be that guy. By all accounts he can shoot better than DT and can play at least passable D.
The thought is that DT is the natural PG and Frank is the combo guard who can fill in at point if DT really struggles. But I believe, DT is option 1. And I believe they both will be playing at least passable D next year, DT should be better than "passable" on D.
 
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The thought is that DT is the natural PG and Frank is the combo guard who can fill in at point if DT really struggles. But I believe, DT is option 1. And I believe they both will be playing at least passable D next year, DT should be better than "passable" on D.
Yeah, my point was K seems to prefer shooters over D. I really hope DT works on his shooting and decision making because we haven't had a shut-down PG in a long time, and I really like the kid.
 

aah555

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I think our poor D is a function of our lack of depth and inexperience; as our guys need to conserve their energy, have to be very cautious to avoid fouls, and don't have many practice opportunities -- as K needs to save their legs for the games. And DT will be out starting PG for reasons we've previously discussed in the past -- and, frankly, I don't think there will be much question about that entering next season. Frankly, the only way I could see him not being the starter is if K just decides to not start a PG and go with a lineup that includes Grayson/Kennard + Jones.
 

dukehokie

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Derryck will more than likely start and his role will be vastly different. He will play set up man and will be an option later in the shot clock. He's going to have fun throwing the ball around.

When you have perimeter drivers and scorers, your assist totals go down. Having some inside scorers and freedom to kick out after really changes your numbers. He's an adept passer and has the vision to create and he will IMO.
 
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Showenuff

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Adrian, I almost never disagree with you, you know hoops and Duke, but I need a lot more from DT in the passing dept. His passing is weak. He rarely makes anything but a straight to the player nearest him type pass, rarely leads a player to a scoring situation and scares the hell out of me with his interior passing. Seriously, I could have passed as well as he did this season.
 

dukiejay

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Part of it is just how the offense is structured this season, Show.

Scheyer wasn't a great PG. He was a great player. Great players have the acumen to be great in their role(s). Nolan was a better PG, per se, but Jon was better for that 2010 team being the primary guy, assists or not.

Comparing Jon to DT now is apples and oranges, or trying to influx Jon's assist numbers his first three years to Derryek's now. It's just not comparable.
 
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dukehokie

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Adrian, I almost never disagree with you, you know hoops and Duke, but I need a lot more from DT in the passing dept. His passing is weak. He rarely makes anything but a straight to the player nearest him type pass, rarely leads a player to a scoring situation and scares the hell out of me with his interior passing. Seriously, I could have passed as well as he did this season.

Of any Duke team I've seen, this one did the most passing around the perimeter I've ever seen. There were rarely any entry passes and all year. And if there were entries, they turned immediately into kickouts.

Maybe this was by design. Maybe K saw that he either didn't have the targets underneath or the guys throwing the passes couldn't do it off the drive, but we just didn't do it. DT began to drive and kick which is more typical of past Duke squads, but the fact remains that there wasn't much team passing.

So you may be right about Derryck, but he was touted throughout high school as one of the passers in any class and you can see that if he has lanes and targets, why that might be. But he had some struggles and maybe K simplified it all for him.
 
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Showenuff

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Yea, Tyus ruined me. He made so many perfect passes that set players up to score. He threw passes that kept the players momentum heading right in stride to the basket. I miss that.
 
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WI#1Dukie22

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DT wasn't at any point this season "handed the keys".... DT was always borrowing the car per say. Point to that is, when your known the be the man (Tyus, Kyrie) it comes natural to make the fancy and difficult passes and plays. You play much more freely and natural knowing "the car is yours." DT didn't have that benefit, and I obviously trust K knows who should or shouldn't be handed the car. No doubt in my mind from what I've seen, Derryck will be s total different player next fall. What he gets no credit for is his EXCEPTIONAL on ball defense. Absolutely ahead of the curve in that aspect. DT will be a STUD at Duke
 
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DukeDenver

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Some guys see the floor. Derryck sees the pass. These are different ways to play the game. Each can be effective. Amile and Jayson can both pass pretty well out the post. We'll just run a quick hit break using our athletes or go into some sort of set. We'll be great.