After we skulldrag Ole Miss, many will assume we are heading to Memphis, but things are a bit more interesting after 615dawg was corrected on Facebook by a former SEC staffer. There is a rule that allows for three teams from one conference to make the BCS, provided that the #1 and #2 teams are not conference champions. Why does this matter? If somehow Arkansas beats LSU and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, a very possible scenario is an LSU-Arkansas rematch in the BCS national championship game, and Georgia goes to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC Champion.
What does that do for MSU? Well, it moves them up in the pecking order of course.
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Here are the likely bowl scenarios. </span>We are assuming MSU over Ole Miss, UT over Kentucky and Vandy over Wake Forest
BCS National Championship: LSU vs. Alabama
Capital One: Arkansas
Cotton: Georgia
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-fil-A: Auburn
Gator: Florida
Music City: Tennessee
Liberty: Mississippi State
BBVA/Compass: Vanderbilt
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">But what if Kentucky beats Tennessee? </span>The Music City is rumored to be favoring Mississippi State over Vanderbilt, which would push Vandy to the Liberty Bowl and the BBVA/Compass would be without an SEC selection.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What if Kentucky beats Tennessee and Wake Forest beats Vanderbilt?</span> This would virtually guarantee at least the Music City Bowl for Mississippi State. And the Liberty and BBVA/Compass Bowls would be without an SEC selection.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">I want to nuke this process. What if - Kentucky beats Tennessee, Arkansas beats LSU, then Georgia goes and beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game? </span>You would have chaos. But the SEC Bowl Selections could look like this.
BCS National Championship: No. 1 Arkansas vs. No. 2 LSU
Sugar: SEC Champion Georgia
Capital One: Alabama
Cotton: Auburn
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-fil-A: Florida
Gator: Mississippi State
Music City: Vanderbilt or even no SEC team if Wake beat Vandy
Liberty: No SEC team
BBVA/Compass: No SEC team
So there you go. There are basically three games to watch, assuming we beat Ole Miss:
Arkansas beats LSU (30%)
Kentucky beats Tennessee (40%)
Georgia beats Alabama (30%)
If all three happen, we could very well end up in Jacksonville. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, we probably end up in Nashville. If none or just Arkansas-LSU happens, we probably end up in Memphis.
Statistical Probability for you Geeks:
Gator Bowl: 3.6%
Music City Bowl: 40%
Liberty Bowl: 56.4%
What does that do for MSU? Well, it moves them up in the pecking order of course.
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Here are the likely bowl scenarios. </span>We are assuming MSU over Ole Miss, UT over Kentucky and Vandy over Wake Forest
BCS National Championship: LSU vs. Alabama
Capital One: Arkansas
Cotton: Georgia
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-fil-A: Auburn
Gator: Florida
Music City: Tennessee
Liberty: Mississippi State
BBVA/Compass: Vanderbilt
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">But what if Kentucky beats Tennessee? </span>The Music City is rumored to be favoring Mississippi State over Vanderbilt, which would push Vandy to the Liberty Bowl and the BBVA/Compass would be without an SEC selection.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What if Kentucky beats Tennessee and Wake Forest beats Vanderbilt?</span> This would virtually guarantee at least the Music City Bowl for Mississippi State. And the Liberty and BBVA/Compass Bowls would be without an SEC selection.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">I want to nuke this process. What if - Kentucky beats Tennessee, Arkansas beats LSU, then Georgia goes and beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game? </span>You would have chaos. But the SEC Bowl Selections could look like this.
BCS National Championship: No. 1 Arkansas vs. No. 2 LSU
Sugar: SEC Champion Georgia
Capital One: Alabama
Cotton: Auburn
Outback: South Carolina
Chick-fil-A: Florida
Gator: Mississippi State
Music City: Vanderbilt or even no SEC team if Wake beat Vandy
Liberty: No SEC team
BBVA/Compass: No SEC team
So there you go. There are basically three games to watch, assuming we beat Ole Miss:
Arkansas beats LSU (30%)
Kentucky beats Tennessee (40%)
Georgia beats Alabama (30%)
If all three happen, we could very well end up in Jacksonville. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, we probably end up in Nashville. If none or just Arkansas-LSU happens, we probably end up in Memphis.
Statistical Probability for you Geeks:
Gator Bowl: 3.6%
Music City Bowl: 40%
Liberty Bowl: 56.4%