Apparently I’m really good at picking horses that run 1-2 99% of the way only to finish 1-3 at the finish. Are there any good APIs that will help me identify these late hard chargers that upend my exacta assessments?
Boxing Exactas
- Thread starter Charlie Marlow
- Start date
Typically API's and so called experts are gonna pick chalk to chalk. If that's the case you can get the same info just looking at the tote board.
I'll ask you a few questions and maybe I can help.
Are you looking to just cash tickets or actually make money? There's a difference.
Do you actually handicap the race(s) you're betting on? If so, are you relying on fractions in the DRF or whatever publication you're using?
Do you look at the probable payoffs before you wager your exactas? Some races are just not worth playing due to short fields, scratches, a prohibitive favorites and CAW's.
CAW's (Computer Assisted Wagering) is in the process of killing the sport for good. These are large teams or syndicates using algorithms with likely outcomes, they are privy to private information, they get huge rebates, they enjoy better betting rates, data feeds, and technology tools not available to the average person.
CAW's will be the death of the sport. If you're an experienced horse player, like I am, it is not unusual to see significant odds change during the frigging race. If they are saying the odds can change 45 seconds into a race, I'm calling bul*sh*t with the speed of computers. The pools need to be locked once the gate springs and that's it.
I played a first time starter at Ellis Park last week that I knew would run well. They are loaded in the gate and my horse was 92/1. He had the lead early stretch and then tired and finished a good third at odds of 47/1. Before CAW's came into existence I would have had a show payoff of much higher than the 14.96 that it paid. As far as I'm concerned, it's a license to steal.
I feel sorry for the weekend players who come unprepared. It's always been tough for them to eke out a little profit and now the system has chased many of them away. You get to the smaller tracks, i.e. Indiana, Prairie Meadows, Delaware, etc., and they can move odds from 5/2 to 4/5 during the race. Then you get totally deflated payoffs and after the fact you wonder if the race was even worth wagering on.
Charlie, if you are getting nipped late by the late closers, you can "kinda" rely on the fractions from the midpoint to the wire, however, the fractions are not reliable, okay? The pace of the race is actually different from track to track due to the run-ups before the timer actually starts.
I think for those that do enjoy horseracing, you can make the decision to either be a recreational gambler and do it or enjoyment while losing a small amount, or you can get immersed in the details of figuring out how races will be run, and then wager accordingly.
I play enough angles that there's always gonna be room for a dinosaur like me to make money. Nowadays I don't play anywhere near the number of races I used to play, but I do focus on making a real hit when I do play. As far as the day to date, short fields, small exotics, I'm just not gonna go that route.
As I mentioned earlier, make sure you are checking the probable exacta payoffs for the combination you're playing, okay? If you're gonna wager $2.00 on a three horse exacta that costs $ 12.00, make sure your smallest potential payoff is worthy of playing. If it's gonna pay $ 20.00, over the course of the year, you will lose your asss. If you ever do the math on say 50 exactas and they are paying 20.00 the math tells you what percentage you have to WIN just to break even.
Sorry for the long explanation but it's about 1% of what I actually have to say about horses nowadays.
Last edited:
Horses' Only Randomly Sh*t Experiment? (HORSE)
Just pick the horse that takes a big dump before the race!
When I saw the thread title, I thought maybe this was a new way of betting on boxing.
And I'm thinking, "But once you pick the winner, isn't 2nd place kind of a given?"
And I'm thinking, "But once you pick the winner, isn't 2nd place kind of a given?"
I’m just a casual fan who makes a few small wagers without any real expectation of making money because I don’t invest enough time into it. I went to Horsemens a few weeks back and tried to relive the glory days of AkSarBen. I spend maybe 5-10 minutes looking through the form for each race to try and pick a few horses I like based on how they seem to be trending. But I also know that there’s so much more to it than that so I just try to enjoy the day and the experience.
Alas, it is not the same as the glory days and like you say it’s hard to make any decent bets since the field is so limited anyway. I’m not surprised about the CAWs at all and it is unfair. They should operate in a separate pool since it’s not a level playing field. And it seems downright illegal to change odds after the race has begun.
I've never placed a horse racing bet because I get info overload looking at the form - my dad loved the ponies but this confirmed a lot of things that I had suspected.
I was on a bike ride about that time frame and went by Horsemans and it appeared they were doing live racing. It was hot AF, but thats not the point...point is I didn't know they still did that there. Looked very well attended to me.
The sport that your dad and I played or are playing are totally different nowadays. It was easier.
Back in the day, say the 80's, Ak-Sar-Ben was one of the premier tracks in the country, probably a top 5 industry operation.
Then that screwball Hal Daub got involved and ended it.
You are correct, Horseman's Park now runs about 4-5 racing days a year as they are allowed/required since they have a simulcast program year around. And it is well attended.
I've been there several times and it is a nice facility as simulcast facilities go.
It was well attended but I wish they had more races and more horses per race. But probably hard to draw more with only four days of live racing.
btw, my wife and I saw you as you went by. We waved but you ignored us you pr!€k
You misspelled hawt
thats how hot i was!!! hahaha
Interesting as to the pool not being closed during the race. Is the bet made before the ringing bell or just not processed for the odds board? Always great to hear your thought. By the way, I took your advice among others & started buying physical gold & silver.
Hey dp, great to hear from you again. Tbh I try never to advise anyone to do anything I do financially, I only post what I do. LOL Physical gold and silver are like all investment vehicles they will go up and down, but at the end of the day, people will be glad when they own them.
There can be no doubt, some of the CAW have discovered backdoors to wager as the race is being run. I do not believe computers on-track are so slow they can't keep up with data input. It's a license to steal and drives many players from the game. The mutuels have become so watered down that it makes fewer and fewer plays possible for a smart player.
If a guy is a recreational player, that's fine because they aren't really there to make money, and if they do, it's usually just blind luck. Hope all is well with you dp!!
**Edited** Maybe later I'll explain dime breakage and why tracks, certainly tracks like Fonner Park were made to go away from it.