Bracketology
- Thread starter UNC76
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What the players and coaches should focus on and what the fans choose to discuss are two different things.
Bracketology and NET rankings matter all season, not just at the end. Because past datapoints do not just disappear; November losses still factor in on Selection Sunday. So we as fans track it.
Bracketology and NET rankings matter all season, not just at the end. Because past datapoints do not just disappear; November losses still factor in on Selection Sunday. So we as fans track it.
Creme has us as a 5 seed this morning. Win the final 3 regular season games, and we are probably projected to host, but can't lay an egg in the ACC tourney and stay there.
Hopefully, they will win their remaining 3 games. The Virginia game after Pitt. will be a tough one, and Duke the final game of the regular season at home, is a game that need to win considering what happen at Durham. Truly believe this is the year which CB and the team will win the ACC tournament, like their chances better this year than previous years.
We just have to win the remaining three games and let our body of work speak for itself. Control what you can control as a team and the let the fans and analyst worry about the other stuff IMO.
I hope we get RK back ready to roll by the UVA game
I hope so, too, but I hope CB brings her off the bench instead of bringing her into the starting lineup after an extended absence.
I think this team had just as much chance to win the ACCT as any team. with that said the odds of UNC versus the field are low.
unc vs dook: pretty even odds
UNC vs ville: pretty even odds
unc vs ncsu: I’ll take unc
unc vs the odds for dook + ville + NCsU+ everyone else: maybe 25% at best.
Run the table regular season and win the ACC Tournament. Lets do it Ladies !
Yeah, Creme was on the ACC show Sunday and he said the same thing; however, he said it is possible that we can move to a four seed, but in order for that to happen, we will need to win the remaining games on our schedule and make a run in the ACCT. Go Heels!
He said that the teams that are ahead of us have more Quad 1 wins than we do. He said we do have a chance to improve the Quad 1 wins but we have to beat VA and Duke, which is something that we already know.
I think we all realize what we need to do. Time to run the table. Those two loses in OT vs LU and Stanford
just won't quit holding us back but win out this week and maybe we can get by them somewhat finally.
Go Tar Heel WBB !
just won't quit holding us back but win out this week and maybe we can get by them somewhat finally.
Go Tar Heel WBB !
NCAA selection committee Rankings came out again today:
Not sure if this includes the MD loss yesterday or not. Definitely does not include Michigan State getting routed by Ohio State right now.
creme usually recalibrates his rankings to more closely match this.
| 1 | UConn (No. 1 seed -- Fort Worth) |
| 2 | UCLA (No. 1 seed -- Sacramento) |
| 3 | South Carolina (No. 1 seed -- Fort Worth) |
| 4 | Texas (No. 1 seed -- Sacramento) |
| 5 | Vanderbilt |
| 6 | Iowa |
| 7 | LSU |
| 8 | Michigan |
| 9 | Louisville |
| 10 | Duke |
| 11 | TCU |
| 12 | Oklahoma |
| 13 | Maryland |
| 14 | Michigan State |
| 15 | Minnesota |
| 16 | Ohio State |
Not sure if this includes the MD loss yesterday or not. Definitely does not include Michigan State getting routed by Ohio State right now.
creme usually recalibrates his rankings to more closely match this.
Feels like if we beat VT and then win against Louisville in the semis, we will host. If we beat VT and then lose to Louisville, hosting is possible but definitely in question. Fair to say?
IMO we should host and it shouldn't be a question... but only one ranked win is tough from a "resume" standpoint. Of course all the ranked teams are in the B10 and SEC, so that hurts when those teams are playing ranked teams every single week (certainly discussions to be had of some of those ranked).
The fact that people even think two 11-7 Big 10 teams should host over Carolina (14-4 ACC) and West Virginia (14-4 Big 12) is insane.
I think we are 16th right now, but that is easy to lose. It only takes one team to string together a couple of wins.
I think beating Louisville is the threshold for hosting regardless of what other teams do/dont don’t do. But I think we can also lose to ville and host if other cards fall our way. getting upset by VT means a really small window where all the other contenders flop As well. unlikely.
Creme mentioned either in the pregame or at halftime that we were part of the discussions for being #16, and that a win today + getting to the ACCT Finals would possibly even get us up to a 3 seed, also depending on other outcomes. He said that before some of the other teams ahead of us lost, so we're in good position & just have to keep winning.
With the regular season over, Creme released his new bracket overnight, and he still has us as a 5 seed playing in Columbus, with dook remaining a 3 seed.
In addition, somehow we dropped to 19 in the NET.
In addition, somehow we dropped to 19 in the NET.
He had us as a 5 seed last year, too...
Here is a comparison of our resume vs the teams we are fighting to get a 4 seed, I used the OOC SOS because your overall SOS is skewed by your conference, Creme currently has these 8 teams seeded either 4 or 5.
UNC 25-6, 4-5 in Q1 games, 12-6 combined in Q! / Q2 games, OOC SOS 89
Kentucky 21-9, 4-8, 6-9, 189
Michigan State 22-7, 6-6, 10-6, 270
Maryland 23-7, 6-5, 8-7, 265
Minnesota 22-7, 6-6, 7-7, 178
Ohio State 24-6, 9-6, 11-6, 158
West Virginia 24-6, 2-3, 10-6, 56
Texas Tech 25-6, 3-1, 8-5, 200
UNC 25-6, 4-5 in Q1 games, 12-6 combined in Q! / Q2 games, OOC SOS 89
Kentucky 21-9, 4-8, 6-9, 189
Michigan State 22-7, 6-6, 10-6, 270
Maryland 23-7, 6-5, 8-7, 265
Minnesota 22-7, 6-6, 7-7, 178
Ohio State 24-6, 9-6, 11-6, 158
West Virginia 24-6, 2-3, 10-6, 56
Texas Tech 25-6, 3-1, 8-5, 200
But worth noting that we're up to 14 in WAB & Massey
It remains to be seen if the women's committee will care about WAB as much as the men
Creme did say last night that UNC's win against Duke does help trying to get 2 homes games in the ACCT. It said, what we already know, if we win or make it to the championship game in the ACCT then we will be able to host during the ACCT. I would say, we just need to continue to stack wins and let the chips fall where they may. Control what we can control.
I see some parity in these except Kentucky: abysmal record in Q1 and Q1/Q2 combined. #20 in WAB. they have only won 4 of their last 11 games, and three of those wins are against teams with losing records. They are in freefall right now.
Supposedly the committee tends to take some stock in recent success. we are one of the hottest teams in the country.
I know it's because of the rule of teams in same conference can't play each other until the E8 but that didn't stop the committee in the past of having S16 ACC matchups of NC State-Notre Dame and Carolina-Dook.
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Great point. and when 3 conference dominate the 16 home seeds it can become hard to avoid pairings.
I think the committee is being bias towards the ACC this year. I think they value the SEC teams more and I do believe the ACC/SEC challenge has a lot to do with this since this year they beat us 12 to 3 during the challenge. That was what happened to our men's teams the year before last. When I saw the teams that were ahead of us for hosting. I was like Minnesota. I think our body of work is at least better than theirs. There were two other teams that I also questioned. I do believe if UNC can at least make it to the ACCT championship game then we can or should be able to by pass at least two of those teams. This is just my opinion. Go Heels!
List of teams in the top 50 who have won 12 of their last 13:
#1 UConn
#2 UofSC
#3 UCLA
#16 UNC
that is the whole list.
every other team contending for 4th seeds hast least 3 losses in their last 13.
KY and Mich St have 6 losses in their last 10: losing records.
#1 UConn
#2 UofSC
#3 UCLA
#16 UNC
that is the whole list.
every other team contending for 4th seeds hast least 3 losses in their last 13.
KY and Mich St have 6 losses in their last 10: losing records.
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Thanks for posting. This is why a lot of us cannot believe that the NCAA committee is having a hard time deciding whether or not we can host when a lot of teams ahead of us are losing. This just not make any sense.
Texas Tech upset by K State. That’s one team no longer contending for a 4 seed.