Can anyone give me a good reason to give that much to a .300 OBP hitter? Especially when you already have Uggla.
Braves to sign BJ Upton. 5 yrs/$75M
- Thread starter BoomBoom.sixpack
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His career OBP is .336 so they expect him to bounce back from last season when many feel he put to much pressure on himself after Longoria was injured. He is 28, plays a decent CF, is right handed and has both power and speed. He isn't a bargain, but that isn't a horrible contract either. Pretty much exactly what he is worth.
They needed another power hitter in that line up.
Upton hit 28 HR last year. He has a better arm than Bourn and stole 31 bases last year. Great pickup to me.
Upton hit 28 HR last year. He has a better arm than Bourn and stole 31 bases last year. Great pickup to me.
We needed this signing badly.
Outfield was/is a huge hole going into the winter meetings. We got the 2nd best OF on the market and we still have to fill left field with Prado moving to 3rd base. Upton is a 5 tool guy that is in the prime of his career so I think he's definitely worth the money, especially since we have no pitching needs.
Our 2 through 7 will be very potent. Prado, Heyward, Upton, Freeman, McCann when he comes back, and Uggla. I think Uggla will bounch back and have a better year and I'm praying McCann can come back healthy and actually stay healthy through the end of the season. If so, that's a solid middle of the lineup.
The big question now is who takes over in LF. I think we are going to go after Denard Span. He's the leadoff guy we need and I think would be a pretty decent fit. Doesn't have a huge arm, but with the acquisition of Upton we are looking more for someone to fill Bourn's leadoff spot in the lineup.
Outfield was/is a huge hole going into the winter meetings. We got the 2nd best OF on the market and we still have to fill left field with Prado moving to 3rd base. Upton is a 5 tool guy that is in the prime of his career so I think he's definitely worth the money, especially since we have no pitching needs.
Our 2 through 7 will be very potent. Prado, Heyward, Upton, Freeman, McCann when he comes back, and Uggla. I think Uggla will bounch back and have a better year and I'm praying McCann can come back healthy and actually stay healthy through the end of the season. If so, that's a solid middle of the lineup.
The big question now is who takes over in LF. I think we are going to go after Denard Span. He's the leadoff guy we need and I think would be a pretty decent fit. Doesn't have a huge arm, but with the acquisition of Upton we are looking more for someone to fill Bourn's leadoff spot in the lineup.
Because he's been a 3 win player 5 out of the last 6 years, and he's just now entering the prime of his career. The conventional wisdom is that teams pay about $5 million per win. $15 million per year seems about right. If they were going to go with a free agent, they got the right guy, and they aren't grossly overpaying.
He's been a 3 win player twice, 5 and 6 years ago. Bill James would say a guy who's been in the Majors for 8 years, with the last 4 years extremely consistant, then you should expect the same, not improvement.
Anyway, the price is about right, it's just that the Braves seemed to care more about their LH-heavy problem than their OBP and K problems. Moneyballers would say that's the exact opposite of the approach they should have taken. I just don't think he's a fit given our low-OBP core. We'll see how it plays out.
Anyway, the price is about right, it's just that the Braves seemed to care more about their LH-heavy problem than their OBP and K problems. Moneyballers would say that's the exact opposite of the approach they should have taken. I just don't think he's a fit given our low-OBP core. We'll see how it plays out.
Not according to Fangraphs. You're probably looking at Baseball Reference. According to BR, he's been >3 oWAR 5 out of the last 6 years with dWAR pulling his overall WAR down. If using BR instead of Fangraphs, I think it's reasonable to lean more heavily on oWAR than offense and defense combined because defensive metrics are well known to be unreliable and UZR likes him a lot more (he's had a positive UZR 5 out of 6 years on Fangraphs and a negative dWAR on BR 4 out of the last 6 years. That's not to say you shouldn't consider defense, but you can't completely trust dWAR when UZR is saying something else.
Anyway, the bottom line is that I think he's a good addition and they didn't break the bank. There is still enough money to go get someone like Victorino to play left if they aren't able to make a trade.
Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Braves called about Span but it didn't get very far. I'm wondering if Wren has called KC about Wil Myers. That would leave us without a prototypical leadoff hitter, but I'm not too terribly concerned about that. The Nationals were arguably the best team in baseball during the regular season last year, and they had Jayson Werth leading off.
Don't forget about Simmons
Maybe not quite the OBP that you would want, but he will suffice leading off.
Maybe not quite the OBP that you would want, but he will suffice leading off.
No thanks. He's the most inexperienced guy in the lineup, so I don't want him getting the most plate appearances on the team. If they don't get a prototypical leadoff guy to play LF, Prado will be serviceable.
yeah, i was using BR. D metrics are very variable, but when it's consistent over 5 years you can rely on it.
The problem is he's very uncomplemetary to our team. He's going to be hitting homers when other players on the team have already hit homers that game, and going to be making outs when our very similar hitters are making outs. LH vs RH is just, IMO, less important than OBP. Bunch a couple lefties together in the 7 and 8 holes, who cares?
The problem is he's very uncomplemetary to our team. He's going to be hitting homers when other players on the team have already hit homers that game, and going to be making outs when our very similar hitters are making outs. LH vs RH is just, IMO, less important than OBP. Bunch a couple lefties together in the 7 and 8 holes, who cares?
The problem with the consistency of dWAR, though, is that a different metric is saying something different, consistently.
I agree that handedness is overrated, and he's not a perfect fit. But there's not a perfect fit out there that's available. Someone like Span would be a great fit, but signing Upton doesn't do anything to the chances of a deal like that happening.
I agree that handedness is overrated, and he's not a perfect fit. But there's not a perfect fit out there that's available. Someone like Span would be a great fit, but signing Upton doesn't do anything to the chances of a deal like that happening.
I'll put it this way: BJ is in general a 3-win player, but in this lineup he's a 2-win player, because they don't fit together well. And if he's a 2 win player, then they overpaid a bit.
I'm hoping they fill LF/3B by platooning Fransico and Gattis (with Prado moving between positions). I think they will wait till late in spring training to decide that, unless a great deal turns up.
I'm hoping they fill LF/3B by platooning Fransico and Gattis (with Prado moving between positions). I think they will wait till late in spring training to decide that, unless a great deal turns up.
I think they'll keep trying to get someone like Span or Fowler (I hope not on Fowler). I could see them going with a platoon, too, but that would be a whole lot of strikeouts in this lineup. I just hope they don't spend all their money on a left fielder so they can use some of it to start extending the young guys who are starting to get arb-eligible.
You guys should really keep up with the AJC Braves beat writer. He's much more in touch than the so-called experts like Rosenthal. He said last night that we're looking for a leadoff bat in LF (obviously). But he went on to say the top 2 targets are Span & Victorino. I'd be elated to get either of those guys.
And I'd be fine with Andrelton batting leadoff, if all else fails. I really liked what I saw from him in the second half. I think he's got the mental toughness to make the transition to the 1-hole, even if he isn't the prototypical leadoff guy. And it's easier to hit 1 than 8. Plus, we really need to keep Prado in the 2-hole. That's the perfect spot for him.
And I'd be fine with Andrelton batting leadoff, if all else fails. I really liked what I saw from him in the second half. I think he's got the mental toughness to make the transition to the 1-hole, even if he isn't the prototypical leadoff guy. And it's easier to hit 1 than 8. Plus, we really need to keep Prado in the 2-hole. That's the perfect spot for him.
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Disagree on Simmons. He's still basically a rookie (even if technically he's a few at bats over the threshold), and his bat last year was a complete surprise: as a prospect he was always known as having a light bat. I'd both rather not rely on him to produce in the leadoff spot, nor would I want to put that pressure on him this soon.
But then i don't like Prado there either, and he's the only other option.
But then i don't like Prado there either, and he's the only other option.
The Nats just traded for Span, so it's not going to be him. The more I think about it, I hope we get Victorino as long as we can get a good deal and it's only a 2-year contract. That would solve LF, leadoff, OBP, and would help mitigate the amount of strikeouts already expected from the lineup.
Horrible signing. The Braves suffer from the same disease that most of MLB teams do. They all pay way too much for bats. The Giants just won their 2nd WS in 3 years and had 1 position player that started on the 2010 team, Buster Posey. The pitchers however are almost all still the same. Edgar Renteria was the WSMVP in 2010. He was let go a day after they won. Marco Scutaro is this years WSMVP. He is now a free agent and is doubtful to resign with the Giants. The Giants currently have no CF and no 2nd base on their roster and it won't matter because they have all their pitchers returning. They will under pay for two veterans to plug those spots and have a payroll 60-80 million dollars less than the Dodgers and still win the West again. The Braves have arguably the nastiest closer in MLB and quite possibly next years best SP in the NL with Kris Medlan. If they would focus their money on pitching and compliment these 2 guys with RP and SP the Braves can win right now. With $75 million the Braves could sign the entire bullpen the Giants have plus 2-3 quality starting pitchers. Is Upton worth an entire team of arms? Not even close.
What? Do you know anything about the Braves organization? They have one of, if not the best bullpen in baseball the last 2 years, and everyone who matters is returning. They have more starting pitching depth than almost everyone in baseball. They don't have a Matt Cain at the top of the rotation, but their #5 (and the #6 and 7) starter would be a mid-rotation starter for all but a small handful of teams.
Pablo Sandoval won WSMVP and the Giants have him until like 2015.
And the Giants got rid of Renteria because he was old and very average.
And the Giants got rid of Renteria because he was old and very average.
Actually, they have the same approach as the Giants. It's just that Matt Cain is now awesome, and Tommy Hanson's fastball lost a couple gears after a couple injuries. Reverse those and the results would be reversed too. They both work on developing aces from within, because they're too expensive to buy.