Breakdown of enrollment numbers

[615dawg]

This is my fair assessment of what I am seeing in the enrollment numbers that were released by IHL yesterday.

Both State and Ole Miss announced record enrollment. That is on the surface a good thing. Here's some insider information.

Ole Miss has retention problems. A school is going to see a drop from freshmen to sophomore. You just don't want it to be huge. You will also want to see a decent increase from sophomore to junior/senior (retention + transfer)

Ole Miss lost 34% of their freshmen last year. State lost 22%. These are students that either can't hack it in college (mostly) or they transfer. I'd like to see us under 20%, but 22% is good. Jackson State was 39%, Alcorn was 54% and Valley was 81%.

State was +27% sophomore to junior. This is a great thing. This tells me that JUCO students are attracted to State. Ole Miss was +3% sophomore to junior and the HBCUs were negative.

Another number I like to look at is the breakdown of ACT scores by freshmen. How many freshmen were under 24 ACT, which is universally considered college ready.

41% of our freshmen were below 24. 47% of Ole Miss' freshmen were below 24.

BTW, State's average was 25.1, Ole Miss was 24.3. (Alcorn was 16.9, JSU 17.8, Valley 16.0)

So State lost about half the students that were not college ready, and Ole Miss lost 2/3 or so.

Overall, I like what we are doing. If we could get that freshman-sophomore number under 20% it would be nice. But we are doing a good job of attracting strong students and working with the weaker students we have to take via Ayers. Ole Miss is getting a lot of freshmen interested in the Ole Miss experience but not keeping them.

Alcorn and Valley should be shut down immediately. Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

 

[soccerdad]

My son went to Mississippi and as a Freshman there was a class that was introduction to college that he had to take and it was just discussing what you are suppose to do each day. It was nothing more than keep a Freshman eligible as everyone that came to class got an A. He knew a Freshman girl that was a cheerleader who was only passing one class on the 12th of November that passes the Fall with a 2.0 to stay eligible for the Spring and cheer. They have tons of Freshman that don't go to class that were passed through high school who he said couldn't do basic school subjects. He often tells me that going to a private school prepared him for college compared to a majority of public school kids from other states.

 

[We Men]

Thanks for the info, 615.

 

[MStateDawg]

Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

Holy crap! How is that even allowed?
What are there no minimum admission standards in Mississippi?

 

[615dawg]

Holy crap! How is that even allowed?
What are there no minimum admission standards in Mississippi?

A 3.2 high school GPA and it doesn’t matter what you have on ACT.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

This is my fair assessment of what I am seeing in the enrollment numbers that were released by IHL yesterday.

Both State and Ole Miss announced record enrollment. That is on the surface a good thing. Here's some insider information.

Ole Miss has retention problems. A school is going to see a drop from freshmen to sophomore. You just don't want it to be huge. You will also want to see a decent increase from sophomore to junior/senior (retention + transfer)

Ole Miss lost 34% of their freshmen last year. State lost 22%. These are students that either can't hack it in college (mostly) or they transfer. I'd like to see us under 20%, but 22% is good. Jackson State was 39%, Alcorn was 54% and Valley was 81%.

State was +27% sophomore to junior. This is a great thing. This tells me that JUCO students are attracted to State. Ole Miss was +3% sophomore to junior and the HBCUs were negative.

Another number I like to look at is the breakdown of ACT scores by freshmen. How many freshmen were under 24 ACT, which is universally considered college ready.

41% of our freshmen were below 24. 47% of Ole Miss' freshmen were below 24.

BTW, State's average was 25.1, Ole Miss was 24.3. (Alcorn was 16.9, JSU 17.8, Valley 16.0)

So State lost about half the students that were not college ready, and Ole Miss lost 2/3 or so.

Overall, I like what we are doing. If we could get that freshman-sophomore number under 20% it would be nice. But we are doing a good job of attracting strong students and working with the weaker students we have to take via Ayers. Ole Miss is getting a lot of freshmen interested in the Ole Miss experience but not keeping them.

Alcorn and Valley should be shut down immediately. Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

Any sense if that retention number is an anomaly for this year or does it look like a trend? That kind of loss can be expected for external causes when you've got a high-financial need class, but I've always thought of ole miss as less likely to attract blue-collar folks- but from those ACT numbers maybe they opened the gates to make that freshman class. If that attrition is due to more internal causes, e.g. parents and students aren't seeing the value proposition for the school, that's got to be setting off a lot of alarm bells on the plantation.

 

[Puppers]

A 3.2 high school GPA and it doesn’t matter what you have on ACT.

And a 3.2 at some of our state's high schools doesn't mean much

 

[thatsbaseball]

Great info....Thanks

 

[615dawg]

Any sense if that retention number is an anomaly for this year or does it look like a trend? That kind of loss can be expected for external causes when you've got a high-financial need class, but I've always thought of ole miss as less likely to attract blue-collar folks- but from those ACT numbers maybe they opened the gates to make that freshman class. If that attrition is due to more internal causes, e.g. parents and students aren't seeing the value proposition for the school, that's got to be setting off a lot of alarm bells on the plantation.

You aren't going to retain everyone. Auburn has a 95% freshman retention rate and is amongst the nation's leaders and they have an extreme focus on turning freshmen into sophomores.

I think 80% is an admirable goal. Typically, academic performance is the #1 reason you lose students from freshman to sophomore. Then comes financial reasons, then come others. Many times, a college can do little to control "others." Some places will call loss of scholarship financial, but I call it academic. If you get a scholarship which requires you to maintain a certain GPA and you dont have it, then you lose that scholarship and can't afford school, I guess it can be both.

I have been criticized on this, but I like a leaner, stronger enrollment rather than a big number. MSU is tending to agree with me lately (it wasn't always the case), while Ole Miss has just opened the gates as you said. I think 18-20k undergraduates is good for us. That's where we stand. We have solid freshmen numbers but great transfer numbers.

Another poster mentioned the "Freshman Experience" class that Ole Miss requires. Sounds good on paper, but its really a way to keep freshmen grades up so they can retain them. Ole Miss has also switched to a +- grading system to help with that. An A still gets 4 points, but a B+ gets 3.3 instead of 3, a C+ gets 2.3 instead of 2, etc. They are taking a monster number of out of state students paying full OOS tuition, but they aren't retaining them.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

A 3.2 high school GPA and it doesn’t matter what you have on ACT.

I don’t think this is unreasonable. Plenty of capable people don’t test well on ACT type tests.

 

[615dawg]

Here's another number I found interesting

53% of Ole Miss students are from out of state. Only 10% of them are from adjacent counties (technically any OOS county that touches Mississippi, but mainly Memphis). Just over a third of Ole Miss students are from Mississippi.

34% of MSU students are from out of state with 9% from adjacent counties.

We have 1,626 students from Tennessee and 1,633 students from Alabama. Next is Georgia at 729.

We have 933 foreign students from 93 different countries

 

[Crazy Cotton]

You aren't going to retain everyone. Auburn has a 95% freshman retention rate and is amongst the nation's leaders and they have an extreme focus on turning freshmen into sophomores.

I think 80% is an admirable goal. Typically, academic performance is the #1 reason you lose students from freshman to sophomore. Then comes financial reasons, then come others. Many times, a college can do little to control "others." Some places will call loss of scholarship financial, but I call it academic. If you get a scholarship which requires you to maintain a certain GPA and you dont have it, then you lose that scholarship and can't afford school, I guess it can be both.

I have been criticized on this, but I like a leaner, stronger enrollment rather than a big number. MSU is tending to agree with me lately (it wasn't always the case), while Ole Miss has just opened the gates as you said. I think 18-20k undergraduates is good for us. That's where we stand. We have solid freshmen numbers but great transfer numbers.

Another poster mentioned the "Freshman Experience" class that Ole Miss requires. Sounds good on paper, but its really a way to keep freshmen grades up so they can retain them. Ole Miss has also switched to a +- grading system to help with that. An A still gets 4 points, but a B+ gets 3.3 instead of 3, a C+ gets 2.3 instead of 2, etc. They are taking a monster number of out of state students paying full OOS tuition, but they aren't retaining them.

That's kind of what I thought - Georgia daddy get's the out of state bill for that freshman year and doesn't like what he's paying for, and that kid gets yanked back home. No wonder they're all in on Football, that's the retention plan apparently.

 

[PhiDawg]

Ole Miss has a community college admissions selectivity reputation so freshman washout is expected.

 

[615dawg]

Ole Miss has a community college admissions selectivity reputation so freshman washout is expected.

They do. But the main issue is they attract so many OOS kids with lower test scores. I wish I could get a breakdown of their ACT scores from OOS. My guess is the distribution moves left quite a bit.

Georgia State, MTSU and North Texas have an abnormal transfer from Ole Miss number.

 

[PhiDawg]

They do. But the main issue is they attract so many OOS kids with lower test scores. I wish I could get a breakdown of their ACT scores from OOS. My guess is the distribution moves left quite a bit.

Georgia State, MTSU and North Texas have an abnormal transfer from Ole Miss number.

As in two semesters in Oxford and then transfer to school closer to home after washout?

 

[615dawg]

As in two semesters in Oxford and then transfer to school closer to home after washout?

Exactly.

 

[PhiDawg]

Full disclosure: I have a child at Ole Miss (boo but I still love her). Her assessment of her classmates is as follows: The Honors College kids are college ready and great students. The other 90%+ are not. Writing a paper is a challenge. Putting together complete sentences is hard.

It's really an indictment on current schools and what they're doing with bottom range students these days.

Most of these kids are there to get through Bid Day/Initiation Night because this their finish line in life rather than a starting point.

 

[TaleofTwoDogs]

HBCUs are included in the analysis, but no USM. Does USM not have any students, just 10 fans? Asking for a friend.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

HBCUs are included in the analysis, but no USM. Does USM not have any students, just 10 fans? Asking for a friend.

Southern Miss has had a stagnant student population for decades which is a shame since they have good majors and programs…

They’re essentially a Healthier MUW that has the advantage of MSU not being located in Ellisville…

 

[615dawg]

HBCUs are included in the analysis, but no USM. Does USM not have any students, just 10 fans? Asking for a friend.

USM is doing solid. They are doing a good job getting JUCO transfers.

18% drop between freshmen and sophomores (best in MS)
+57% sophomore to junior
24.1 median ACT
49% below 24 ACT
20% out of state
24% from adjacent counties (Louisiana and Alabama are 61% of their OOS)
0 students from Issaquena County (MSU has 2, UM has 1)

 

[johnson86-1]

This is my fair assessment of what I am seeing in the enrollment numbers that were released by IHL yesterday.

Both State and Ole Miss announced record enrollment. That is on the surface a good thing. Here's some insider information.

Ole Miss has retention problems. A school is going to see a drop from freshmen to sophomore. You just don't want it to be huge. You will also want to see a decent increase from sophomore to junior/senior (retention + transfer)

Ole Miss lost 34% of their freshmen last year. State lost 22%. These are students that either can't hack it in college (mostly) or they transfer. I'd like to see us under 20%, but 22% is good. Jackson State was 39%, Alcorn was 54% and Valley was 81%.

State was +27% sophomore to junior. This is a great thing. This tells me that JUCO students are attracted to State. Ole Miss was +3% sophomore to junior and the HBCUs were negative.

Another number I like to look at is the breakdown of ACT scores by freshmen. How many freshmen were under 24 ACT, which is universally considered college ready.

41% of our freshmen were below 24. 47% of Ole Miss' freshmen were below 24.

BTW, State's average was 25.1, Ole Miss was 24.3. (Alcorn was 16.9, JSU 17.8, Valley 16.0)

So State lost about half the students that were not college ready, and Ole Miss lost 2/3 or so.

I would love to know what proportion of washouts came from that under 24 ACT metric though. Been a while, but my recollection was that really once you got roughly a 21 on the ACT, what dictated whether someone washed out from grades was basically whether they were willing to do the basics or not. Granted self selecting into easier majors (or moving there after struggling with a weedout class) did a lot of the work, but I don't recall many people willing to go to class and do assignments having trouble sticking. Maybe not in Engineering or Accounting or any hard science, but just caring would pretty much get you around a B in most classes outside of those type majors.

My guess is that Ole Miss's washouts are driven by being the backup option for OOS students that value partying, plus just it being generally harder to adjust going to school say 6-10 hours away rather than 2-4. Also, they have all the normal challenges of being a freshmen but have to handle them while drowning in a sea of douche bags. Seems like an obvious recipe for washout.

Overall, I like what we are doing. If we could get that freshman-sophomore number under 20% it would be nice. But we are doing a good job of attracting strong students and working with the weaker students we have to take via Ayers. Ole Miss is getting a lot of freshmen interested in the Ole Miss experience but not keeping them.

Alcorn and Valley should be shut down immediately. Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

I believe someone said that if you get an ACT below a certain level (don't think it was as high as 24; maybe 21?), MSU would send you a letter basically saying we will accept you because we have to but you would probably benefit from doing community college first. Not sure if that's a thing we still do but I think that's a great route.

 

[FlotownDawg]

With numbers like that, there is no reason for MVSU to remain open. 81% drop from freshmen to sophomore? That's incredible. Some people are just not cut out for college. Those people should be encouraged to attend trade school and learn a trade. You can make good money being an electrician or a plumber or a welder.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don’t think this is unreasonable. Plenty of capable people don’t test well on ACT type tests.

Very true but
- (1) they don't do well relative to their intelligence. They usually aren't busting out a 16. Maybe back in the day before we recognized learning disabilities you had that, but most people that "don't test well" still do ok. They might make a 21 when compared to class mates they do similar to in school, you'd expect higher.
- (2) A 3.2 at many (most?) high schools doesn't indicate much. Probably should be at least a 3.5 if we're just going to ignore ACT and SAT all together. Really it should be based on the school. If you're busting out a 3.2 at a school where more than have the students don't read at grade level, that's probably not indicative of being ready for college.

 

[Shmuley]

Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

Pig Prather say, "Hold my beer."

 

[615dawg]

With numbers like that, there is no reason for MVSU to remain open. 81% drop from freshmen to sophomore? That's incredible. Some people are just not cut out for college. Those people should be encouraged to attend trade school and learn a trade. You can make good money being an electrician or a plumber or a welder.

Yeah, I had to double check Excel on that one.

Valley has 2,013 undergraduate students

1,270 freshmen
242 sophomores
217 juniors
284 seniors

1,948 of those students are African American, which makes it the whitest HBCU in the state.

94% of Valley's freshmen had below a 24. Of the 13 entering freshmen that had >24, 7 were exactly 24. The mode ACT at Valley was 14. Valley did have a 34 ACT attend, which is the highest non-MSU/UM/USM student in the state. Everyone else's high was 33.

Of note, 39 students with a 36 ACT are attending IHL institutions. 27 attend State.

But wait, 615, that doesnt add up to 1270. You would be correct. They only had 220 entering freshmen. They have over 1000 second year students still classified as freshmen (under 30 earned hours)

Here's the kicker. 70% of Valley students are out of state. We are keeping that campus open with Division I athletics for under 800 Mississippians. Total waste of taxpayer money. You can sell me on Alcorn, MUW or Delta State, but not Valley. Colossal failure.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

USM is doing solid. They are doing a good job getting JUCO transfers.

18% drop between freshmen and sophomores (best in MS)
+57% sophomore to junior
24.1 median ACT
49% below 24 ACT
20% out of state
24% from adjacent counties (Louisiana and Alabama are 61% of their OOS)
0 students from Issaquena County (MSU has 2, UM has 1)

Hardy Street High!

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Yeah, I had to double check Excel on that one.

Valley has 2,013 undergraduate students

1,270 freshmen
242 sophomores
217 juniors
284 seniors

1,948 of those students are African American, which makes it the whitest HBCU in the state.

94% of Valley's freshmen had below a 24. Of the 13 entering freshmen that had >24, 7 were exactly 24. The mode ACT at Valley was 14. Valley did have a 34 ACT attend, which is the highest non-MSU/UM/USM student in the state. Everyone else's high was 33.

Of note, 39 students with a 36 ACT are attending IHL institutions. 27 attend State.

But wait, 615, that doesnt add up to 1270. You would be correct. They only had 220 entering freshmen. They have over 1000 second year students still classified as freshmen (under 30 earned hours)

Here's the kicker. 70% of Valley students are out of state. We are keeping that campus open with Division I athletics for under 800 Mississippians. Total waste of taxpayer money. You can sell me on Alcorn, MUW or Delta State, but not Valley. Colossal failure.

Shut em down except for JSU

 

[PhiDawg]

Yeah, I had to double check Excel on that one.

Valley has 2,013 undergraduate students

1,270 freshmen
242 sophomores
217 juniors
284 seniors

1,948 of those students are African American, which makes it the whitest HBCU in the state.

94% of Valley's freshmen had below a 24. Of the 13 entering freshmen that had >24, 7 were exactly 24. The mode ACT at Valley was 14. Valley did have a 34 ACT attend, which is the highest non-MSU/UM/USM student in the state. Everyone else's high was 33.

Of note, 39 students with a 36 ACT are attending IHL institutions. 27 attend State.

But wait, 615, that doesnt add up to 1270. You would be correct. They only had 220 entering freshmen. They have over 1000 second year students still classified as freshmen (under 30 earned hours)

Here's the kicker. 70% of Valley students are out of state. We are keeping that campus open with Division I athletics for under 800 Mississippians. Total waste of taxpayer money. You can sell me on Alcorn, MUW or Delta State, but not Valley. Colossal failure.

Is this data publicly available?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Very true but
- (1) they don't do well relative to their intelligence. They usually aren't busting out a 16. Maybe back in the day before we recognized learning disabilities you had that, but most people that "don't test well" still do ok. They might make a 21 when compared to class mates they do similar to in school, you'd expect higher.
- (2) A 3.2 at many (most?) high schools doesn't indicate much. Probably should be at least a 3.5 if we're just going to ignore ACT and SAT all together. Really it should be based on the school. If you're busting out a 3.2 at a school where more than have the students don't read at grade level, that's probably not indicative of being ready for college.

Valid. Not sure if it’s better to attempt to establish some Kind of weighted scale based on high school performance and student GPA or just assume that if they can learn at a B level in high school they can probably learn in college too and let freshman year shake out the ones that can’t.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

USM is doing solid. They are doing a good job getting JUCO transfers.

Is there a breakdown of individual JUCOs and where they transfer?

I’d figure that USM would get transfers from Jones, Pearl River, Gulf Coast, Copiah-Lincoln, and perhaps Southwest…

 

[Delta41]

This is my fair assessment of what I am seeing in the enrollment numbers that were released by IHL yesterday.

Both State and Ole Miss announced record enrollment. That is on the surface a good thing. Here's some insider information.

Ole Miss has retention problems. A school is going to see a drop from freshmen to sophomore. You just don't want it to be huge. You will also want to see a decent increase from sophomore to junior/senior (retention + transfer)

Ole Miss lost 34% of their freshmen last year. State lost 22%. These are students that either can't hack it in college (mostly) or they transfer. I'd like to see us under 20%, but 22% is good. Jackson State was 39%, Alcorn was 54% and Valley was 81%.

State was +27% sophomore to junior. This is a great thing. This tells me that JUCO students are attracted to State. Ole Miss was +3% sophomore to junior and the HBCUs were negative.

Another number I like to look at is the breakdown of ACT scores by freshmen. How many freshmen were under 24 ACT, which is universally considered college ready.

41% of our freshmen were below 24. 47% of Ole Miss' freshmen were below 24.

BTW, State's average was 25.1, Ole Miss was 24.3. (Alcorn was 16.9, JSU 17.8, Valley 16.0)

So State lost about half the students that were not college ready, and Ole Miss lost 2/3 or so.

Overall, I like what we are doing. If we could get that freshman-sophomore number under 20% it would be nice. But we are doing a good job of attracting strong students and working with the weaker students we have to take via Ayers. Ole Miss is getting a lot of freshmen interested in the Ole Miss experience but not keeping them.

Alcorn and Valley should be shut down immediately. Alcorn took a student with an 8 ACT.

UM’s published freshmen retention rate was 87%.