Breaking down the bubble

[615dawg]

Right now, I believe that there are 7 teams competing for the final three spots. I believe that we are one of those teams, but we have no room for error. These are not in any order. In this group, we have the best record but worst SOS and the fourth best RPI.

Mississippi State
17-7 (6-6 in 3rd best conference)
RPI: 57
SOS: 90
Good: No bad losses (13-0 against Q3/Q4)
Bad: No great wins (just 1-6 against Q1, a home win over Mizzou), low non-conference SOS

North Carolina State
16-9 (6-6 in best conference)
RPI: 72
SOS: 58
Good: Four Q1 wins
Bad: Would be lowest RPI team ever to get at large bid

Kansas State
17-8 (6-6 in 2nd best conference)
RPI: 66
SOS: 80
Good: Four Q1 wins, 5-3 on road, 4th in Big 12
Bad: 330th non-conference SOS

Washington
17-8 (7-5 in 5th best conference)
RPI: 46
SOS: 48
Good: Five Q1 wins
Bad: 4-5 against Q2/Q3

USC
17-9 (8-5 in 5th best conference)
RPI: 50
SOS: 42
Good: 2nd in the Pac 12
Bad: No great wins, a really bad loss to Princeton

Marquette
14-11 (5-8 in 6th best conference)
RPI: 65
SOS: 16
Good: Top notch SOS
Bad: Lots of losses

UCLA
17-8 (8-5 in 5th best conference
RPI: 53
SOS: 62
Good: Brand name, win over Arizona
Bad: loss to Oregon State, crowded Pac 12.

 

[DAWG61]

I think we are only ahead of Marquette and equal to NCSU, Wash. Trailing USC, UCLA, KSU. I do think we can beat aTm now with the two players getting suspended/kicked off and their PG being hurt so there's potential for us to finish 5-1 down the stretch which should place us in one of the last spots assuming we don't lose our first game in SECT.

 

[Ranchdawg]

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't RPI take into account the individual teams RPIs when you play them? If you win then your RPI goes up or may go down if their RPI sucks. Since that is the case why do they even talk about SOS???? After all, it is like saying you have to pay a tax on your taxes.

 

[VegasDawg13]

You don't have the first part exactly right, but your larger point is correct. SOS is such a large part of your RPI in the first place, it is extremely redundant to then also consider it separately.

 

[MSUDC11]

Lunardi has us as the 7th team out, Jerry Palm has us as the 4th team out. I’m curious how much two wins this week would move us up. You would think probably not much, but we’ll see what happens around us. Have to take care of our business first though.

 

[Drebin]

Still a tough road for us. Gotta keep winning and get some help.

Tennessee getting rolled by Bama Saturday wasn't good for us. Really need UT to be at their best RPI-wise when we play them. We also need to hope that A&M's player suspensions don't hurt them too bad either. Good RPI wins are critical right now.

 

[fishwater99]

We need to win 2 of 3 on road and all our home games and I think we are in..

 

[patdog]

Yeah. A win Saturday would have been huge. A couple of calls in that game may be the difference between the NCAA and NIT for us.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Nice breakdown. Unfortunately this is a behind the scenes look at the selection process by the time it gets to the bubble.

View attachment 9600

 

[VegasDawg13]

You say seven teams for three spots, yet four of the teams you listed are Lunardi's last four in. So, who does he have out that you consider safely in?

 

[MSUDC11]

Tennessee getting rolled by Bama Saturday wasn't good for us. Really need UT to be at their best RPI-wise when we play them. We also need to hope that A&M's player suspensions don't hurt them too bad either. Good RPI wins are critical right now.

I disagree with this notion. Tennessee didn’t drop at all in the RPI, and Bama jumped nine spots to 33. So that win last Tuesday is now very close to being a Q1 win for us, and Tennessee still has a great RPI and would be a signature win for us.

Keep an eye on Arkansas too, they’re also inching toward the Top 30 at 36 currently. We can also get a boost from teams we’ve already beaten having strong finishes.

 

[SixtInning]

Does anyone know for sure if playing teams twice affects your RPI differently than playing them once? I'm assuming yes, and therefore we want the teams we play twice to do as well as possible to improve our RPI. Of course if a "play once" team moves up to Q1 with a win over a "play twice" team, that might help our perception more than the fraction a point in RPI help.

 

[615dawg]

I'm basically taking first eight out and last eight in teams, looking at remaining schedules. I feel like 5 of those last eight are going to be taken. I also feel like six of his teams will have zero chance.