Just four games into the 2016 campaign, Kentucky's season is on the line today in Lexington. If Mark Stoops and company manage six wins, this will be one of them. Last week's performance against New Mexico State left a poor taste for many, me included. The Cats defense has never looked worse than it did in the first half of that game. I would credit them for rebounding after halftime, but NMSU isn't an offensive powerhouse. Anyway, the defense is what it is at this point. South Carolina heads to the Commonwealth fresh off a 5-point win against East Carolina. The 2-1 Cocks could easily be 0-3 at this point. Without question (well, to me anyway), SC and UK make up two of the three worst teams in the league. As I already mentioned, this game couldn't be bigger for Kentucky and Mark Stoops. UK needs this game in the worst kind of way.
Line: Kentucky -2
Series: South Carolina leads 17-9-1
*Kentucky has won last two meetings
Television: SEC Network
Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage Kentucky
I'm genuinely excited about Stephen Johnson. His performance last week was unbelievable (even considering the opponent). Because UK's offensive tackles are going to struggle more often than not against legitimate opposition, Kentucky needs a guy that can move around and scare opposing DC's with his mobility potential. Maybe Johnson is the kind of QB that can do that. If so, that ability might open the field up a little for UK's playmakers. South Carolina's defense has been better than UK's so far, but IMO, opposition has had something to do with that. Against Mississippi State, the Gamecocks defense allowed almost 500 yards. MSU averaged a whopping 6.4 YPC in that game as well. With Boom Williams along with Johnson, UK's running game might be able to get going big time this weekend. That will probably be the key to this matchup. If UK's run game is able to get going, that will open things up for Conrad, Badet, and Johnson. UK's offensive line has been unimpressive so far. I think they matchup fairly well with the SC d-front. Overall, it's tough to get a great feel for how UK's offense will perform. Johnson looked absolutely outstanding against NMSU. South Carolina is much better. Best guess, Johnson will still have some success this weekend, but it will be more uneven than last week.
Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
This is actually a pretty interesting matchup. UK's defense has been putrid, allowing over 500 yards per game. That ranks 122nd in the nation. On the flip side, South Carolina's offense has been statistically worse. They rank 123rd nationally in total offense. Their rushing offense has been absolutely awful. My biggest concern is their passing game (which isn't good either, BTW) against UK's non-existent pass rush. South Carolina has a couple of good WR's, but UK's DB's will be fine against them as long as SC QB's don't have all day to throw the football. IMO, this is going to be one of those games (and we see it almost every week) where Stoops/Eliot play a "prevent" for four quarters. I'm guessing we see very little in the line of aggressive play calling. South Carolina has struggled mightily to move the football, and Stoops isn't going to give them anything easy. Of course, UK's defense hasn't slowed down anyone. The front seven is woeful. The d-line has been as bad as it gets. So who wins a matchup between two units that have been really bad? I think South Carolina will move the ball quit a bit. Hopefully, UK can force some turnovers or get some redzone stops. I'm guessing redzone defense will be key tonight. If they can force FG attempts, UK will be in good shape.
Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
I'm still not sure I saw what I saw last weekend (LOL). A punt return for a touchdown? What? UK's much maligned special teams unit came up with a big play against the Aggies. That return helped UK jump all the way to sixth nationally in punt returns. South Carolina is 2nd nationally returning kicks, but generally, neither team has enough returns to get a true feeling for what they're going to do long term. SC has a senior at kicker (Frye). He hasn't been incredibly accurate throughout his career, but he's 4-5 so far this year kicking FG's. He's 135-136 on PAT's in his career.
South Carolina will win if...they produce in the redzone. Their offense is going to move the football (because everyone does against UK). Can they turn long drives into seven?
Kentucky will win if...the defense forces turnovers/field goal attempts and Johnson is for real. Clearly, one nice game against New Mexico State is essentially meaningless. BUT, it does provide hope. This is a huge test for Johnson.
Prediction...Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26...If Barker was playing, I'd pick SC. Honestly, I have little idea what to expect from Johnson, but I'm excited to find out. I have a feeling the defense will look a little better tonight. The odds of playing as poorly as they have EVERY week have to be long (LOL)!
Previous Picks (1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS)
UK 31 Southern Miss 27
Florida 23 UK 10
UK 48 New Mexico State 13
GBB!!!
Line: Kentucky -2
Series: South Carolina leads 17-9-1
*Kentucky has won last two meetings
Television: SEC Network
Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage Kentucky
I'm genuinely excited about Stephen Johnson. His performance last week was unbelievable (even considering the opponent). Because UK's offensive tackles are going to struggle more often than not against legitimate opposition, Kentucky needs a guy that can move around and scare opposing DC's with his mobility potential. Maybe Johnson is the kind of QB that can do that. If so, that ability might open the field up a little for UK's playmakers. South Carolina's defense has been better than UK's so far, but IMO, opposition has had something to do with that. Against Mississippi State, the Gamecocks defense allowed almost 500 yards. MSU averaged a whopping 6.4 YPC in that game as well. With Boom Williams along with Johnson, UK's running game might be able to get going big time this weekend. That will probably be the key to this matchup. If UK's run game is able to get going, that will open things up for Conrad, Badet, and Johnson. UK's offensive line has been unimpressive so far. I think they matchup fairly well with the SC d-front. Overall, it's tough to get a great feel for how UK's offense will perform. Johnson looked absolutely outstanding against NMSU. South Carolina is much better. Best guess, Johnson will still have some success this weekend, but it will be more uneven than last week.
Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
This is actually a pretty interesting matchup. UK's defense has been putrid, allowing over 500 yards per game. That ranks 122nd in the nation. On the flip side, South Carolina's offense has been statistically worse. They rank 123rd nationally in total offense. Their rushing offense has been absolutely awful. My biggest concern is their passing game (which isn't good either, BTW) against UK's non-existent pass rush. South Carolina has a couple of good WR's, but UK's DB's will be fine against them as long as SC QB's don't have all day to throw the football. IMO, this is going to be one of those games (and we see it almost every week) where Stoops/Eliot play a "prevent" for four quarters. I'm guessing we see very little in the line of aggressive play calling. South Carolina has struggled mightily to move the football, and Stoops isn't going to give them anything easy. Of course, UK's defense hasn't slowed down anyone. The front seven is woeful. The d-line has been as bad as it gets. So who wins a matchup between two units that have been really bad? I think South Carolina will move the ball quit a bit. Hopefully, UK can force some turnovers or get some redzone stops. I'm guessing redzone defense will be key tonight. If they can force FG attempts, UK will be in good shape.
Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
I'm still not sure I saw what I saw last weekend (LOL). A punt return for a touchdown? What? UK's much maligned special teams unit came up with a big play against the Aggies. That return helped UK jump all the way to sixth nationally in punt returns. South Carolina is 2nd nationally returning kicks, but generally, neither team has enough returns to get a true feeling for what they're going to do long term. SC has a senior at kicker (Frye). He hasn't been incredibly accurate throughout his career, but he's 4-5 so far this year kicking FG's. He's 135-136 on PAT's in his career.
South Carolina will win if...they produce in the redzone. Their offense is going to move the football (because everyone does against UK). Can they turn long drives into seven?
Kentucky will win if...the defense forces turnovers/field goal attempts and Johnson is for real. Clearly, one nice game against New Mexico State is essentially meaningless. BUT, it does provide hope. This is a huge test for Johnson.
Prediction...Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26...If Barker was playing, I'd pick SC. Honestly, I have little idea what to expect from Johnson, but I'm excited to find out. I have a feeling the defense will look a little better tonight. The odds of playing as poorly as they have EVERY week have to be long (LOL)!
Previous Picks (1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS)
UK 31 Southern Miss 27
Florida 23 UK 10
UK 48 New Mexico State 13
GBB!!!
