Bubble update and why a WVU win this Saturday is huge for us!

[msubullie4life]

WVU plays at fellow bubble team South Florida (RPI 35). WVU's current RPI is sitting at 52. Win that game, their RPI would definitely move into the Top 50 considering this is a true road game against a higher RPI team. If they can maintain their Top 50 RPI status by winning a game or two in the Big East Tourney, we would have 3 Top 50 Ws. We are currently 2-4 vs the Top 50. A 3-4 record will look a LOT better, especially with so many fellow bubble teams featuring a mediocre record vs the Top 50 (There's a reason these teams are on the bubble!)<div>
</div><div>Current status of bubble teams fighting for a bid and some nitty gritty:</div><div>
</div><div>Miami (51):Record 17-11; Road Record 4-8; vs Top 50 2-6; vs Top 51-100 1-4</div><div>St. Louis (30):Record 22-6; Road Record 5-5; vs Top 50 1-2; vs Top 51-100 6-2</div><div>St. Joseph's (55):Record 19-12; Road Record 5-8; vs Top 50 2-5; vs Top 51-100 4-4</div><div>Xavier (53):Record 18-11; Road Record 5-7; vs Top 50 2-7; vs Top 51-100 4-3</div><div>South Florida (35):Record 19-11; Road Record 5-8; vs Top 50 2-7; vs Top 51-100 4-1</div><div>West Virginia (52):Record 18-12; Road Record 3-6; vs Top 50 3-8; vs Top 51-100 5-3</div><div>UConn (36):Record 17-12; Road Record 3-7; vs Top 50 5-7; vs Top 51-100 2-3</div><div>Cincinnati(69):Record 21-9 ; Road Record 6-5; vs Top 50 6-3; vs Top 51-100 1-3</div><div>Northwestern (50):Record 17-12; Road Record 3-7; vs Top 50 2-10; vs Top 51-100 3-2</div><div>Texas (54):Record 19-11; Road Record 4-6; vs Top 50 3-8; vs Top 51-100 1-1</div><div>Colorado St (21):Record 17-10; Road Record 2-9; vs Top 50 3-5; vs Top 51-100 5-3</div><div><div>Arizona (67):Record 21-9; Road Record 7-4; vs Top 50 1-6; vs Top 51-100 3-2</div><div>Washington (49):Record 20-8; Road Record 5-4; vs Top 50 1-5; vs Top 51-100 2-3</div><div>Mississippi State (61): Record 20-10; Road Record 3-6; vs Top 50 2-4; vs Top 51-100 5-3</div></div><div>UCF (66):Record 18-9; Road Record 3-7; vs Top 50 2-5; vs Top 51-100 1-1</div><div>VCU (58): Record 25-6; Road Record 10-3; vs Top 50 1-2; vs Top 51-100 3-2</div><div>BYU (46):Record 22-7; Road Record 8-3; vs Top 50 2-5; vs Top 51-100 3-0</div><div>
</div><div>Number of bids already taken (LOCKS + AUTOMATICS): ACC (4), A-10 (1), Big East (6), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (3), Pac 12 (1), SEC (4), CUSA (2), MVC (2), WCC (2), OVC (1), Other 1-bid leagues (19).</div><div>
</div><div>56 spots have already been taken. 12 more spots remain. I read somewhere that in the last 10 years, there have been 21 bid-stealers (teams from outside the 'locks'). The above listed 17 teams (plus a couple more making late good runs in the conference tourneys) will fight it out for the last 10-12 spots in the next 10 days. I personally feel that State's resume is in a much better shape than half the teams on the bubble. We should make it in as long as we win vs Ark and the 1st round game at the SECT.</div><div>
</div><div>Last 4 teams in for now: Northwestern, USF, Texas, Xavier</div><div>The 5 teams out for now: Miami, VCU, Arizona, UCF, St. Joseph's</div><div>
</div><div>A lot could happen over the next few days. I hope I can update this bubble status daily. I friggin love March!</div>

 

[rugbdawg]

Good idea though.

 

[hullabaloodog]

The Pac12 is incredibly weak, but they keep winning and Lunardi already has them in the field.<div>
</div><div>If we can win on Saturday and one game in the SEC tourney, we'll be in the NCAAs as an 11 seed.</div>

 

[BulldogBasher]

I'd say that USF is becoming a more comfortable at-large bid though, as their win over Louisville last night was huge. Also, Colorado State had a quality win over UNLV, and I would put them in the "Last 4 In" category. I'm not as comfortable with our at-large hopes as some people on this board are. Our RPI is atrocious right now. We've just gotta beat Arky and win at least one game in the SEC tourney. Oh and pray that there are no unexpected tournament winners out of the MWC, C-USA, MVC, etc.

 

[hullabaloodog]

As for unexpected tournament winners, I'll be watching the Ohio Valley very closely. Murray St. in the NCAAs no matter what, and I could see them dropping a game to Tennessee St. or Tenn Tech in the tourney.

 

[msubullie4life]

I agree that it was a huge win for USF but they better not get too comfortable. A loss to WVU would hurt them bad. Regarding the unexpected tourney winners, I think we need to factor in at least 1 or 2 bid-stealers. Like I said previously, on an average 2 teams steal bids every year. We need to ensure we aren't in the last 4 category, so that we get bumped out when unexpected teams win conference tournaments.

 

[RonnyAtmosphere]

..I'm not paying close attention to all this, but if Bama has now moved into the lock for a bid category, then they have been kicking more *** than I realized.

 

[hullabaloodog]

They look to land between 8-10. Could move higher if they make it to the SEC Finals, but that would mean beating UK in the semis more than likely. <div>
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[msubullie4life]

Unless Bama loses to Ole Miss AND the 1st game of the SECT to a sub 100 RPI team, they are safely in. Lose the next two like I said, even then that will only get them on the bubble and still not outside looking in (IMHO).