Can the SEC get 10 hosts?

[Perd Hapley]

Things are looking rather interesting here, as the SEC may shatter its previous record as far as number of host sites. Texas coming over obviously helped. But just a few weeks ago, it was still only looking like 7 or 8 host teams were likely….with an outside shot at 9. Now? It looks like 9 hosts are almost guaranteed, with a chance of there being 10 hosts.

Currently, 7 SEC teams are absolute locks to host (listed below by RPI rank):

UGA - 1
Auburn - 2
Texas - 3 (likely #1 overall seed)
Vandy - 4
Arkansas - 5
LSU - 8
Tennessee - 14

Alabama (#9) is currently as close as they could be to a lock without quite being there yet. I think they need one more win, either this weekend or in Hoover. May need 2 in Hoover if they get swept….who knows. Overall, Top 10 RPI teams from the SEC with winning conference regular season records are hosting every time.

It gets more interesting for two additional teams. Florida was absolutely left for dead a month ago. Now, they are the hottest team in the league. They just took 2 of 3 on the road against the soon to be #1 overall seed, are at 14-14 in league play, and are all the way up to #11 in the RPI. They are finishing up against Bama, and won last night. If they sweep Bama to finish 16-14, they are 100% hosting. If they split the last 2 games to go 15-15, they may need a win or 2 in Hoover or may not. If Bama takes the next 2, it’s a more difficult path.

Finally you have Ole Miss. They are just outside the RPI Top 16 (#17), but have the opportunity to play #2 RPI Auburn this weekend. They won last night. If they sweep Auburn, they are 100% hosting. Split the next 2 but win 1 or 2 in Hoover, and its also very likely that they host. Vanderbilt and Texas are the only teams in the country with more Quad 1 wins than OM….they have all the metrics that the committee likes to see.

TLDR: I think you have the 7 locks above, plus the Bama/UF series winner as likely hosts. Bama can lose the series and still have a path, but UF likely cannot unless they make it to Sunday in Hoover. OM has a path regardless of what happens around them. All 3 of those teams control their own destiny as far as hosting, and all 3 of them can conceivably host simultaneously without taking any other SEC teams’ bids, either.

 

[anon1758050382]

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams are in Omaha. Eight is possible but unlikely. Six wouldn't surprise me at all.

My guess is they help Florida State and North Carolina dodge an SEC team at the Super Regional round.

 

[8dog]

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams are in Omaha. Eight is possible but unlikely. Six wouldn't surprise me at all.

My guess is they help Florida State and North Carolina dodge an SEC team at the Super Regional round.

And honestly outside of LSU, Arkansas and Texas I’m not sure who is actually a really good team. Like I wish it were possible for us to get sent to Auburn or Georgia for regionals.

 

[Lawdawg.sixpack]

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams are in Omaha. Eight is possible but unlikely. Six wouldn't surprise me at all.

My guess is they help Florida State and North Carolina dodge an SEC team at the Super Regional round.

Nah - they'll stack us against each other in Supers so that we only get 4 max.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Nah - they'll stack us against each other in Supers so that we only get 4 max.

Every year people make comments like this and imply there is an anti-SEC bias within the committee, but it never actually seems that way when the brackets are released.

 

[patdog]

Nope. Should get 8 though.

 

[Perd Hapley]

And honestly outside of LSU, Arkansas and Texas I’m not sure who is actually a really good team. Like I wish it were possible for us to get sent to Auburn or Georgia for regionals.

Would you have said Ole Miss was a “really good team” heading into the 2022 regionals?

I think overall, there will be 13 SEC teams in the field, and outside of maybe Kentucky I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won the whole thing.

 

[8dog]

Would you have said Ole Miss was a “really good team” heading into the 2022 regionals?

I think overall, there will be 13 SEC teams in the field, and outside of maybe Kentucky I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won the whole thing.

Yeah anything can happen. Teams win as 2 or 3 seeds. Anyone can win it. I’d just think our chances of winning a Saturday game at Auburn is about the same as at coastal

 

[anon1758050382]

Nah - they'll stack us against each other in Supers so that we only get 4 max.

That’s what I’m saying: If they spread 13 SEC teams across 13 regionals, including SEC 1-seeds across from 1-seeds FSU and UNC, we really could have 8 teams in Omaha.

Instead, they will spread 13 SEC teams across 13 regionals but have us match up in the Supers. Making 6 SEC teams in Omaha likely, but 8 very unlikely, if not impossible.

 

[patdog]

That’s what I’m saying: If they spread 13 SEC teams across 13 regionals, including SEC 1-seeds across from 1-seeds FSU and UNC, we really could have 8 teams in Omaha.

Instead, they will spread 13 SEC teams across 13 regionals but have us match up in the Supers. Making 6 SEC teams in Omaha likely, but 8 very unlikely, if not impossible.

Plus there will be upsets. I’d put the over/under for SEC team in Omaha at 4.5

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Where's the Starkville Regional?**

 

[CaptainFalcon]

No I think it’ll be 7 or 8. But may have 6 of the Top 8 seeds.

Tennessee is absolutely not a lock to host. They have lost 5 of their last 6 series. I think they have to win another game in Fayetteville this weekend.

Bama is in a similar boat at Florida, and they already dropped the first game. Florida could host if they sweep, but I think they’d need to sweep to have a chance.

Ole Miss has an outside chance but it’s gonna require winning 3-4 more games between Auburn and the SECT.

 

[Perd Hapley]

No I think it’ll be 7 or 8. But may have 6 of the Top 8 seeds.

8 are absolutely guaranteed. The 7 locks plus the Bama / UF series winner. Bama / UF series loser and OM still have a shot….depending on various factors.

Tennessee is absolutely not a lock to host. They have lost 5 of their last 6 series. I think they have to win another game in Fayetteville this weekend.

Tennessee already has 16 SEC wins - and didn’t play Mizzou this year. 41-13 overall. 11-8 Quad 1 record. No bad losses. Top 15 RPI. Top 25 SOS. They check every single box. And, this shouldn’t matter…..but it does….they are defending national champs. They are definitely hosting since they got the win they needed to hold serve this weekend already.

Bama is in a similar boat at Florida, and they already dropped the first game. Florida could host if they sweep, but I think they’d need to sweep to have a chance.

Bama is hosting with 1 more regular season win, and still has a path in Hoover even if they don’t get it. They are very close to locking it up. UF has to at least get to .500 in SEC play in the regular season to get there. But they have the #4 SOS and are virtually assured of finishing in the top 15 of RPI no matter what. They have a path.

Ole Miss has an outside chance but it’s gonna require winning 3-4 more games between Auburn and the SECT.

That’s pretty much what I said, but if they sweep Auburn then that is enough. Hoover won’t matter. Split last 2 against Auburn, and they will need 1-2 in Hoover (how many exactly depends on their draw).

 

[anon1758050382]

Plus there will be upsets. I’d put the over/under for SEC team in Omaha at 4.5

I’d take the over. I’d likely get 6 top 8 seeds with 7 more teams as backup trying to get 5 teams in Omaha. Even if 2 SEC top 8 seeds lose, there seems to always be a non 1-seed SEC team in Omaha.

 

[HotMop]

Where's the Starkville Regional?**

We'll host in Omaha.

 

[anon1758050382]

Tennessee already has 16 SEC wins - and didn’t play Mizzou this year. 41-13 overall. 11-8 Quad 1 record. No bad losses. Top 15 RPI. Top 25 SOS. They check every single box. And, this shouldn’t matter…..but it does….they are defending national champs. They are definitely hosting since they got the win they needed to hold serve this weekend already.

D1 had them as a 2-seed in their latest bracket fwiw.

Taking 2 of 3 in Fayetteville could certainly change that.

 

[WrightGuy821]

Florida has no business hosting at 15-15 in the SEC right? Even with their RPI I can't wrap my head around a team going .500 in conference play getting to host a regional

 

[8dog]

No I think it’ll be 7 or 8. But may have 6 of the Top 8 seeds.

Tennessee is absolutely not a lock to host. They have lost 5 of their last 6 series. I think they have to win another game in Fayetteville this weekend.

Bama is in a similar boat at Florida, and they already dropped the first game. Florida could host if they sweep, but I think they’d need to sweep to have a chance.

Ole Miss has an outside chance but it’s gonna require winning 3-4 more games between Auburn and the SECT.

OM has the second most quad 1 wins in the country. Gonna be tough to keep them out if they win 16 reg season games

Edited- I’m talking about keeping them out of hosting

 

[Baddog11]

I think he was referring to OM hosting.

 

[patdog]

I’d take the over. I’d likely get 6 top 8 seeds with 7 more teams as backup trying to get 5 teams in Omaha. Even if 2 SEC top 8 seeds lose, there seems to always be a non 1-seed SEC team in Omaha.

Maybe. But the record is 4 teams from 1 conference (6 x SEC & 2 x ACC). I know SEC has added Texas. But they ts gonna be real hard to get 6. There will be upsets.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

I think agree with the sentiment that Bama probably hosts as long as they don’t get swept this weekend. I do think Florida needs to sweep to host though, 15-15 is typically very iffy for an SEC host, which is where they’d be if they only win two.

Ole Miss’s has to win the series against Auburn to even have a chance, and then it’s just going to depend. They feel kinda similar to us last year.

I think Tennessee is one win in Fayetteville away from hosting, but if they lose that series, I don’t know how you reward a team with a host spot when they have one series win since the beginning of April.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Florida has no business hosting at 15-15 in the SEC right? Even with their RPI I can't wrap my head around a team going .500 in conference play getting to host a regional

Depends. If they make it to Sunday in Hoover, they’ve got 40+ wins, Top 10 RPI, 18-19 SEC wins, 14-15 Quad 1 wins, and #4 SOS. Kinda hard to turn down at that point.

 

[Perd Hapley]

D1 had them as a 2-seed in their latest bracket fwiw.

Taking 2 of 3 in Fayetteville could certainly change that.

D1 doesn’t know anything.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I’d take the over. I’d likely get 6 top 8 seeds with 7 more teams as backup trying to get 5 teams in Omaha. Even if 2 SEC top 8 seeds lose, there seems to always be a non 1-seed SEC team in Omaha.

No idea how many SEC teams make Omaha. But, I’ll put the chances of an SEC national champion at 95%, and the chances of an all-SEC final at about 70%.