Can the SEC get 14 teams in?
- Thread starter Ranchdawg
- Start date
Will be interesting if 14+ teams have 14 wins. I’d probably put UK at 60% to get 14 and State, UF, and A&M at 40% based on remaining schedule, but all certainly have a chance. State and A&M both get Missouri which helps
It would be virtually impossible to wind up with 14 of 16 teams win 14 games. There’s only 240 games in the season. 14*14 is 196 of them. That’s only 44 games left. It helps that Missouri may go 0-30. But Texas may win 10 of those themselves. And South Carolina had already won 5.
I don’t think State has a chance in hell of making it with 14 wins. I’m really not sure we’re even at the 50% chance of getting in with 15 wins. We’ve got a tough row to hoe.
14 wins will get MSU in the tournament & 13 might especially with a win or two in Hoover. I am not convinced that we can even get to 13 although a win today would make the path easier.
Six - Texas, UPIG, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia & Bama are in and have strong resumes for hosting
Eight thru Ten - Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, & Auburn have 10-11 wins with 9-10 games left to play. It would take a complete collapse for any of them not to get in.
Ten thru Fourteen are:
Kentucky 9-11 with one more vs USCE, 3 @ MSU, 3 vs. Oklahoma, & 3 @ Vandy
A & M 8-12 with one more @ Texas, 3 vs. LSU, Missouri, & 3 @ UGA
Flarda 8-12 with one more vs UPIG, 3 @ USCE, 3 @ Texas, & 3 vs. Bama
MSU 7-13 with one @ Auburn, 3 vs. Kentucky, 3 vs. Ole Miss, & 3 @ Missouri
The MSU/Kentucky series is huge. A & M and MSU getting Missouri favors both making especially if either can win today.
Flarda will struggle to get in. They really need to seep USCE on the road, but games left against UPIG & Texas is tough.
A & M also has a very tough remaining schedule with today at Texas, LSU, & @ Georgia.
It will be tough for the SEC to get more than 11 maybe 12 unless the top of the league struggles the last few weekends.
Six - Texas, UPIG, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia & Bama are in and have strong resumes for hosting
Eight thru Ten - Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, & Auburn have 10-11 wins with 9-10 games left to play. It would take a complete collapse for any of them not to get in.
Ten thru Fourteen are:
Kentucky 9-11 with one more vs USCE, 3 @ MSU, 3 vs. Oklahoma, & 3 @ Vandy
A & M 8-12 with one more @ Texas, 3 vs. LSU, Missouri, & 3 @ UGA
Flarda 8-12 with one more vs UPIG, 3 @ USCE, 3 @ Texas, & 3 vs. Bama
MSU 7-13 with one @ Auburn, 3 vs. Kentucky, 3 vs. Ole Miss, & 3 @ Missouri
The MSU/Kentucky series is huge. A & M and MSU getting Missouri favors both making especially if either can win today.
Flarda will struggle to get in. They really need to seep USCE on the road, but games left against UPIG & Texas is tough.
A & M also has a very tough remaining schedule with today at Texas, LSU, & @ Georgia.
It will be tough for the SEC to get more than 11 maybe 12 unless the top of the league struggles the last few weekends.
I’m in this camp. other fringe teams losing will help but we’re doing some good things lately but we’re not putting it together consistently. I we sweep Missouri, we have a shot to win 3-4 more. UK series probably defines it
The problem is the RPI. We’re at 46 right now, which ain’t good for an SEC team. And today is our last chance at a serious RPI boosting win. We’re not going to get a ton of movement from home wins over OM or UK, and the Mizzou series is going to be an RPI destroyer no matter what happens….they’re at freaking 152. I think we have to go 4-2 or better against OM / UK, sweep Mizzou, and win today in order to feel good about a Top 40 finish. I don’t see any way we get in with 14 wins when 30% of our schedule was Mizzou, Florida, and South Carolina, no signature non-conference wins, and an awful nonconference schedule, and an RPI outside the Top 40. There’s just not enough meat on the bone in that scenario.
Yeah the 235 OOC and bad OOC losses are proving the “it will be fine with a sec schedule” wrong. Yeah it’s fine if you win. It’s not fine when you are on the bubble. But the best thing for this program sadly is to not make the tourney and do a total reboot.
If we win games, the RPI will take care of itself. A road win today @ 11 Auburn would be be huge, Some G5 teams' RPI will drop because of conference opponents & some SEC teams with good RPIs may not make the tourney.
But that’s the very question we have forced on ourselves- how many do we have to win?
The thing is we don’t have bad losses, we just have a crap record against good teams. We are 17-0 against Q3 & Q4, but 8-18 against Q1 & Q2.
If we win today and win our three remaining series, we will be in. I can’t see them keeping out an SEC team with 14 wins and 6 out of 10 series wins.
But if we lose today then it’s gonna be really tough. A road series win at Auburn would carry some serious weight for us, similar to the Bama series
But if we lose today then it’s gonna be really tough. A road series win at Auburn would carry some serious weight for us, similar to the Bama series
14 SEC wins would require us to win at least 3 more SEC games against @ Auburn (#11), Kentucky (#30), & Ole Miss (#15) which would help the record vs Quad 1 & 2.
Bam
Bama is pretty good secondary evidence of how bad a job this staff has done in just the last two years even though things seem better. Bama is not very good and they are going to host.
The Quad 1 record is 5-15. Win 3 more against those 3 teams….you’re still looking at 8-19 Quad 1 (not good).
And again, this is the first year of truly unbalanced scheduling in SEC baseball. In a year where we only play 10 of the other 15 teams, we still drew the 3 worst teams (besides ourselves), and 6 of the bottom 7 in that 15 team grouping. That’s an inside straight draw to a great SEC record if there ever was one. We also only played 4 of the Top 8…..avoiding Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Vandy….so we aren’t offsetting those games against bad teams. There are a lot of years and situations where 14 SEC wins gets you in. This isn’t one of them.
If ever there was a schedule to win 20+ games this was it. Really 18 should have been the minimum. And we’re far short.
