Cause and effect ... protesting and increase in positive COVID tests?

[anthonys735]

If you think you're proving that the reopen is causing more issues than protests or testing strategies, you couldn't be more wrong. But feel free to keep postinging hollow local rag links. Whatever makes you feel better. For every city that isn't rising... yet, where protests are prevalent, there's one where restaurants are open and they're not having issues.

My point on the protests is if our leaders are going to support them, and they should, then you're going to have to accept what that means for everyone else.

 

[PhDcat2018]

Some of the people weren't wearing masks. Some were homemade. People are yelling and close together. You're right. They're not hazmat suits.

And yet still. New York. Minnesota. Chicago. Washington Dc. No growth. Like the thread said. Cause and effect. Protests don't spread Covid. That's how effective cheap masks and being outside are for most people.

So dont hang inside at places you don't have to like bars, restaurants, and/or churches. And if you are packed inside work or the grocery store, wear a mask. And maybe we can stop Covid almost as successful as BLM protesters did.

You're not serious are you?

 

[anthonys735]

Hospitals are becoming overwhelmed in some places. For example, Houston had to start admitting adults to the children’s hospital because the regular hospitals ran out of space.

Not true. Both these threads are great and direct from the source.

 

[PhDcat2018]

Not true. Both these threads are great and direct from the source.

He shredded Gottlieb.

Btw, what is it about guys with the last name Gottlieb? It's like "my name is Gottlieb, I'm an asshat." See: Gottlieb, Doug, Gottlieb, Scott

 

[anthonys735]

Not true. Both these threads are great and direct from the source.

Hate to pile on more, but...

 

[rqa]

I referenced these same points in the corona thread and it was removed. I'm just really confused as to why no one points to the protests as a possible reason for the spike. It's plausible and I'm not saying they are totally responsible but they could be.

Let me just throw this out there for reference.
George Floyd was killed on May 25. On May 23, we traveled to Hilton Head,SC for vacation. On that day the COVID count for Beaufort county was 302 cases. We left HHI on May 31 and the count had risen to 391 ...a near 30% increase in cases in 1 week. There were no protest in HHI while we were there. It takes about 2 weeks from the time of exposure for you to test positive so there is no chance the Floyd/BLM protest had any bearing on those numbers. We were heading for a spike regardless. Of course the protest have added to that spike.

I just checked, the count is now 1,152.

 

[ukwildcat2004]

Let me just throw this out there for reference.
George Floyd was killed on May 25. On May 23, we traveled to Hilton Head,SC for vacation. On that day the COVID count for Beaufort county was 302 cases. We left HHI on May 31 and the count had risen to 391 ...a near 30% increase in cases in 1 week. There were no protest in HHI while we were there. It takes about 2 weeks from the time of exposure for you to test positive so there is no chance the Floyd/BLM protest had any bearing on those numbers. We were heading for a spike regardless. Of course the protest have added to that spike.

I just checked, the count is now 1,152.

Hence why I said POSSIBLE reason for the spike in some areas. Did I ever say sole reason was protests? No. I want to know why everything else is pointed out as a reason but not that.

I can see reading comprehension is not a strong suit for you.

 

[P19978]

I don't know how anyone can believe ANYTHING the media reports anymore.

 

[blubo]

Hence why I said POSSIBLE reason for the spike in some areas. Did I ever say sole reason was protests? No. I want to know why everything else is pointed out as a reason but not that.

I can see reading comprehension is not a strong suit for you.

He doesn’t have any suits at all.

 

[Pickle_Rick]

Remember all those threads criticizing that one guys (Sorry bro. Can't remember your handle off jand) computer modeling on Rupp Rafters. Welcome to 2.0 of those threads.

Macro statistics work. The more micro you go in your sample sizr, the less relieble the modeling. Just remember that when arguing about models, and projections.

 

[csrupp]

I'll go with an even split on protests (although in the protest we participated in, I didn't see anyone without a mask) and dumbasses who thought that opening back up meant you didn't have to take precautions anymore.

The masks don't even work. The pores in the masks are between 20-100 times larger than the size of the virus.

 

[wildcatsboston1984_rivals]

The pores in the masks are between 20-100 times larger than the size of the virus.

That’s not even applicable. The virus isn’t airborne. It’s passed through respiratory droplets. The droplets are bigger than the virus.

 

[PhDcat2018]

I don't know how anyone can believe ANYTHING the media reports anymore.

It took over a month for cnn to admit border crossings are a significant source of the new cases... the media is worthless.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

The outbreaks are in Texas, Florida and Arizona. States where their governors would LOVE to blame the protests. Hell, I wish I could blame them. The hypocrisy of some leaders to bash protests encouraging re-opening only to then compliment the BLM cause was so stupid. however, the evidence to this point says that protests didn't cause the spike. Reopening of bars seems to be the main culprit in all three states.

This virus gets passed in indoor settings by people not wearing masks. It's pretty simple.

restaurants opened at a reduced capacity, keep bars closed, if you go to church wear a mask and don't sing or do responsive reading.

You aren't hearing about outbreaks at large indoor employers anymore because they are doing temperature checks and requiring masks.

That leads me to believe we can have school. In fact, it's probably going to slow the spread to have kids in a controlled environment where they are getting their temps checked multiple times a day and wearing a mask when they aren't in the classroom more than 6 feet apart.

 

[anthonys735]

however, the evidence to this point says that protests didn't cause the spike.

Please cite this evidence.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

Please cite this evidence.

The cities with the largest protests haven't seen a spike in cases... It's not rocket surgery...

KY didn't see a spike when people protested Beshear's shutdown. Minneapolis, DC, Chicago and NYC didn't see spikes after the protests there.

Also, to clarify my comments. The reopening of bars themselves didn't cause the spike. The cramming of people into them did...

Here is a good article that shows some statistical evidence from contact tracing in Seattle.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...ar-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/

 

[anthonys735]

You're looking at total cases.

1. NYC's seroprevalence is closer to updated estimated herd immunity. Also, cases can be falling while demographics rising which is likely happening in NYC.
2. Speaking of that, Minneapolis, is experiencing just that. Big spike in younger demographics while falling in all other age ranges.(see previous graph)
3. The states that are surging had REALLY REALLY low numbers compared to populations. So any increase is going to look massive. These surges are in the young demographic and overwhelmingly minority. Now, a lot are Hispanic which could point to a different issue. Which is the case, we have a lot of things happening.

Making any predictions or assumptions on what is causing it is silly.

 

[WayneDougan_rivals170043]

The protests are significantly dumber than going back to work / restaurants. Think of downtown Louisville, it's the same broke-dick hipsters screaming into the air, with no one listening anymore. One of them got shot in the head over the weekend, and those clowns are still out there.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

The cities with the largest protests haven't seen a spike in cases... It's not rocket surgery...

KY didn't see a spike when people protested Beshear's shutdown. Minneapolis, DC, Chicago and NYC didn't see spikes after the protests there.

Also, to clarify my comments. The reopening of bars themselves didn't cause the spike. The cramming of people into them did...

Here is a good article that shows some statistical evidence from contact tracing in Seattle.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...ar-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/

There's an equal and opposite reaction to protests/riots as well. In MN, the cases of age 20-29 spiked in a huge way - but the overall cases remained stable (people staying inside bc city on fire).

[/QUOTE]

Houston

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-pr...ronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

LA - https://www.latimes.com/california/...ing-to-debate-over-role-of-protests-in-spread

In the last week, positive cases within the LAPD workforce jumped from 170 to 206, Chief Michel Moore told the civilian Police Commission on Tuesday.

“This was a 21% increase and is about twice the rate of our historic rate of change over the history of the pandemic,” he said.

https://laist.com/latest/post/20200629/coronavirus-los-angeles-county-updates-june-29
Los Angeles County officials reported 2,903 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus today — the most in a single day so far in the region.

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

Yet, there was very little "outrage" with all the 2nd Amendment and "Open" rallies/protests from the same people on her condemning BLM protestors for causing spikes.

I can safely say many of the BLM protestors were wearing masks, yet when confronted with this, many on here then start complaining their masks were not up to snuff. Zero masks with the 2nd and Open rally attendees.

It's hard to take many of you serious in the slightest when some of you are referencing hospital administrators (they are not concerned with anything but the bottom line) and individuals named "Gummy Bear" on Twitter to further bolster your position.

Also, many states have young people (easy target of the right for today's problems) and BLM protests/rallies, yet their numbers are still in check.

 

[anthonys735]

I don't care about the protests. Not 1 bit. Good for them, I hope they achieve real change with the way our system is setup.

What I care about is people acting like because SOME of them are wearing masks they're somehow immune. They're not. Half assed homemade masks are only somewhat effective. Also, don't make me post 20 pictures or videos of protests showing that only some of them are wearing masks. Mask only protect outward, they are not able to prevent inward. So one group of non-masks is all it takes.

Second, I'm REALLY tired of people supporting them and shaming business owners, people wanting to go back to work, other citizens wanting to get some normalcy back, and calling for lock downs/ no school/ etc.

When the protests started it showed that our rights supersede the virus' harm. At that point, while politicians rushed to get their photo op, you can't just pick and chose which rights are allowed specifically when it comes to educating our kids and our livelihoods.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

I don't care about the protests. Not 1 bit. Good for them, I hope they achieve real change with the way our system is setup.

What I care about is people acting like because SOME of them are wearing masks they're somehow immune. They're not. Half assed homemade masks are only somewhat effective. Also, don't make me post 20 pictures or videos of protests showing that only some of them are wearing masks. Mask only protect outward, they are not able to prevent inward. So one group of non-masks is all it takes.

Second, I'm REALLY tired of people supporting them and shaming business owners, people wanting to go back to work, other citizens wanting to get some normalcy back, and calling for lock downs/ no school/ etc.

When the protests started it showed that our rights supersede the virus' harm. At that point, while politicians rushed to get their photo op, you can't just pick and chose which rights are allowed specifically when it comes to educating our kids and our livelihoods.

Well said.

There's an equal and opposite reaction to protests/riots as well. In MN, the cases of age 20-29 spiked in a huge way - but the overall cases remained stable (people staying inside bc city on fire).

Houston

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-pr...ronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

LA - https://www.latimes.com/california/...ing-to-debate-over-role-of-protests-in-spread

In the last week, positive cases within the LAPD workforce jumped from 170 to 206, Chief Michel Moore told the civilian Police Commission on Tuesday.

“This was a 21% increase and is about twice the rate of our historic rate of change over the history of the pandemic,” he said.

https://laist.com/latest/post/20200629/coronavirus-los-angeles-county-updates-june-29
Los Angeles County officials reported 2,903 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus today — the most in a single day so far in the region.

[/QUOTE]

Those graphs also correlate with when bars opened in those areas and people started going out. Most believe that is what is driving the increase among young people, not the protests. The contact tracing in Seattle bears that out. Houston may be an outlier and perhaps there is something else that is contributing to the anecdotal evidence cited in the Newsweek article.

I think it's good news. I think we are learning that it's really hard to get this unless you're in very closed indoor settings. Or indoor settings where lots of people are singing/yelling. I also think it's common sense to not have gatherings, indoor or outdoor with 60,000 people.

I'm not defending the protests. I'm simply saying that without the massive spikes it means that we are probably ok to do things outside but need to be more careful inside. Specifically in places that are very tightly packed. IE - Bars.

 

[WildcatofNati]

Yet, there was very little "outrage" with all the 2nd Amendment and "Open" rallies/protests from the same people on her condemning BLM protestors for causing spikes.

I can safely say many of the BLM protestors were wearing masks, yet when confronted with this, many on here then start complaining their masks were not up to snuff. Zero masks with the 2nd and Open rally attendees.

It's hard to take many of you serious in the slightest when some of you are referencing hospital administrators (they are not concerned with anything but the bottom line) and individuals named "Gummy Bear" on Twitter to further bolster your position.

Also, many states have young people (easy target of the right for today's problems) and BLM protests/rallies, yet their numbers are still in check.

First, there was an incredible amount of "outrage" from the MSM regarding the anti-lockdown protests, as well as from the same politicians who themselves participated in the other protests. The alleged hypocrisy of a few people posting on a bloody message board is insignificant by comparison. Moreover, I'll guarantee that the some of the Floyd protesters were among the loudest critics of the lockdown protesters. The woke crowd tends to be pro-lockdown. And obviously hypocritical. And selfish. Don't they care about Grandma?

Second, a handful of protests about the lockdowns generally involving a few dozen people pales in comparison to days and days of protests and riots in every urban area (and in some non-urban areas) in the country, often involving thousands jam-packed together like sardines. It's a completely different thing, not based on the nature of the protest, but based on the magnitude and numbers.

Finally, if the "numbers are still in check" after these mass protests and riots, then it's safe to say it's time to take the "stay home" crap and flush it directly down the toilet.

 

[d2atTech]

We are apparently seeing an increase in positive COVID test results in various places across the country.

Is this a surprise after nearly a month of 10’s of thousands of people protesting and rioting in the streets all over the country ... and yet the media isn’t even speaking to this potential cause and effect and is instead focusing only on opening up too soon?

I confirm this. We are seeing 2x over predicted rates of positives.

 

[anthonys735]

That’s not even applicable. The virus isn’t airborne. It’s passed through respiratory droplets. The droplets are bigger than the virus.

You're not right very often.

The viral particles that spread Covid-19 are tiny bundles of proteins and nucleic acids, about 0.1 micron in size—or one hundred-thousandth of a centimeter. The CDC generously describes the evidence in favor of cloth face masks’ efficacy as “emerging,” but by the standards we use to assess clinical interventions, the efficacy of masks, especially nonsurgical masks, is undetermined. Clearly, reducing the speed and pressure of droplets from sneezing or coughing that spread infections, as those of the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19 do, is likely to have some effect, but how much remains to be seen.

https://www.city-journal.org/reality-of-wearing-masks

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

You're not right very often.

The viral particles that spread Covid-19 are tiny bundles of proteins and nucleic acids, about 0.1 micron in size—or one hundred-thousandth of a centimeter. The CDC generously describes the evidence in favor of cloth face masks’ efficacy as “emerging,” but by the standards we use to assess clinical interventions, the efficacy of masks, especially nonsurgical masks, is undetermined. Clearly, reducing the speed and pressure of droplets from sneezing or coughing that spread infections, as those of the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19 do, is likely to have some effect, but how much remains to be seen.

https://www.city-journal.org/reality-of-wearing-masks

"City Journal is, quite simply, one of the best things in the entire intellectual conservative movement."

Should anyone be surprised they came to this conclusion?

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

You're not right very often.

The viral particles that spread Covid-19 are tiny bundles of proteins and nucleic acids, about 0.1 micron in size—or one hundred-thousandth of a centimeter. The CDC generously describes the evidence in favor of cloth face masks’ efficacy as “emerging,” but by the standards we use to assess clinical interventions, the efficacy of masks, especially nonsurgical masks, is undetermined. Clearly, reducing the speed and pressure of droplets from sneezing or coughing that spread infections, as those of the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19 do, is likely to have some effect, but how much remains to be seen.

https://www.city-journal.org/reality-of-wearing-masks

THe reason you'll struggle to find any credible study on the issue is because it's generally considered unethical to conduct a survey on the spread of a virus and intentionally expose somebody to it.

Meaning, to find out if masks really to slow the spread you'd have to intentionally have somebody go out and try to infect people without a mask. You'd have to do the same with somebody wearing a mask. And you'd have to do it on large scale.

That's why you see surveys and efforts to create similar situations. But no actual double blind studies. it's just too tough to study.

Same reason why we aren't seeing results on vaccines as fast as we'd like. You don't do a double blind study and intentionally expose everybody to the virus. Instead, they give pepole the vacine or the placebo and then tell them to go live as they normally do and then study the efficacy of the virus over a long period of time (months). I suspect there is somebody doing the same thing with masks... But again, the goal of a mask is not to keep yourself from getting the virus. It's to stop yourself from giving it to somebody else. Again, almost impossible to study.

IN terms of the vaccine. I personally think that if you have an army of young and healthy people willing to intentionally expose themselves to the virus we should have tried it. But the medical and pharmaceutical community rejected this idea. As did the administration in DC.

 

[WildcatofNati]

"City Journal is, quite simply, one of the best things in the entire intellectual conservative movement."

Should anyone be surprised they came to this conclusion?

No doubt that "AlbanyWildCat" is more of an expert on the subject than the author, who is a virologist who specializes in bat-bourne viruses. Only City Journal would publish such a hack.

 

[Bill Cosby]

No doubt that "AlbanyWildCat" is more of an expert on the subject than the author, who is a virologist who specializes in bat-bourne viruses. Only City Journal would publish such a hack.

But did the virologist take into account how wearing a mask makes some people feel better about themselves regardless of its actual impact on spread? If not, he can’t be trusted.

 

[Baller Cal]

You're not right very often.

The viral particles that spread Covid-19 are tiny bundles of proteins and nucleic acids, about 0.1 micron in size—or one hundred-thousandth of a centimeter. The CDC generously describes the evidence in favor of cloth face masks’ efficacy as “emerging,” but by the standards we use to assess clinical interventions, the efficacy of masks, especially nonsurgical masks, is undetermined. Clearly, reducing the speed and pressure of droplets from sneezing or coughing that spread infections, as those of the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19 do, is likely to have some effect, but how much remains to be seen.

https://www.city-journal.org/reality-of-wearing-masks

He and the other guy with Boston in his name are the two worst excuses for posters this board has.

 

[JumperJack]

Yet, there was very little "outrage" with all the 2nd Amendment and "Open" rallies/protests from the same people on her condemning BLM protestors for causing spikes.

I can safely say many of the BLM protestors were wearing masks, yet when confronted with this, many on here then start complaining their masks were not up to snuff. Zero masks with the 2nd and Open rally attendees.

It's hard to take many of you serious in the slightest when some of you are referencing hospital administrators (they are not concerned with anything but the bottom line) and individuals named "Gummy Bear" on Twitter to further bolster your position.

Also, many states have young people (easy target of the right for today's problems) and BLM protests/rallies, yet their numbers are still in check.

You’re dense. Nobody’s condemning protests, and in fact we know that more young people getting it is a great thing. You might tell that to your pearl clutching comrades on CNN.

What we are condemning (which is obvious and yet you pretend to miss it) is the double standard for two types of protests.

The hypocrisy (again, from your ilk that run major cities) that coronavirus outcomes were racist because people of color were disproportionately affected,

but it’s ok for those same people to be even MORE subjected to the same virus that disproportionately kills them because SOCIAL JUSTICE. Because now they have masks? Holy ****.

It must be exhausting to brainwash yourself to the degree necessary to spout the ******** you do.

 

[JumperJack]

Across this country Democrats are shutting down Independence Day celebrations for covid but won’t shut down BLM protests. If masks work for BLM protests then why wouldn’t they work at Independence Day celebrations?

Talk about privilege!

 

[PhDcat2018]

Across this country Democrats are shutting down Independence Day celebrations for covid but won’t shut down BLM protests. If masks work for BLM protests then why wouldn’t they work at Independence Day celebrations?

Talk about privilege!

#BLMprivilege

 

[Double Tay]

I just am in astonishment the media really is trying to praise NY's response and blame everything on Florida

maybe the most outrageous thing I’ve ever seen. Truly astounding.

 

[Double Tay]

Not true. Both these threads are great and direct from the source.

exactly. The capacity of beds being occupied this year is almost identical to the same time last year. Hospitals aren’t stupid – they don’t sit on hundreds of empty beds in anticipation of something bad happening. They try to run close to Max at all times. But of course the media would report that has at near capacity all the time and all the dumb *** sheep follow right along.

 

[wildcatsboston1984_rivals]

Across this country Democrats are shutting down Independence Day celebrations for covid but won’t shut down BLM protests. If masks work for BLM protests then why wouldn’t they work at Independence Day celebrations?

Talk about privilege!

Well we have a constitutional right to protest. We don’t have a constitutional right to attend a party.

 

[anthonys735]

We don't?

 

[Double Tay]

Well we have a constitutional right to protest. We don’t have a constitutional right to attend a party.

sure we do

 

[sefus12]

I confirm this. We are seeing 2x over predicted rates of positives.

Is that factoring in the massive increases in testing, the states including antibody positives into positive tests, and the potential of multiple positives tests of a single person being thrown into the totals?

 

[anthonys735]

"City Journal is, quite simply, one of the best things in the entire intellectual conservative movement."

Should anyone be surprised they came to this conclusion?

More info for you and Boston, sure y'all will try to discount his credentials.