CDC Numbers
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If a quarter the country got infected and that mortality rate held steady, which it probably would drop, you'd still have over a million deaths. So we'll see what transpires, but I would revisit all of these statistics the last day in April. There's going to be a huge surge in the number of tests per day between now and then.
I mean if we had 38,000,000 COVID-19 cases and a lower .35% mortality, that's still 1,330,000 deaths....and we wouldn't have peaked yet either most likely.
22021 current deaths world wide 4 months in. You expecting a 1.3 million deaths in the US alone?
That’s what people have been doing all along. It’s mind boggling why this is just going to ravage the US.
I find it hard to believe people still don't understand why this is different than the flu. We have no immunity, vaccine, or treatment. Over 160 million people per year get the flu vaccine to help slow the spread. If we could do that now, with this Coronavirus, then it would be more like the flu... But still 19 times as deadly.
If we let this thing run its course, it's going to infect 50-80% of us. It will kill .5-1% of people infected even if they get all available treatment. If the hospital gets overwhelmed, which would happen immediately. The mortality rate might reach 5%.
Quick math.... If we treated this like the flu 165-265 million will get infected. Millions will die. In the United States alone. There would be unimaginable civil unrest The rest of the world would ban all travel of people and goods to and from the United States.
This is not an election plot. This is basic human intelligence and decency. That is why every developed country in the Northern Hemisphere is taking similar and sometimes more dramatic steps as the United States.
ETA: This is Putin heading to a hospital in Russia. Does that look like a man who thinks this is no big deal? A good rule of thumb is to never let Putin show more compassion for people than you do.
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If we let this thing run its course, it's going to infect 50-80% of us. It will kill .5-1% of people infected even if they get all available treatment. If the hospital gets overwhelmed, which would happen immediately. The mortality rate might reach 5%.
Quick math.... If we treated this like the flu 165-265 million will get infected. Millions will die. In the United States alone. There would be unimaginable civil unrest The rest of the world would ban all travel of people and goods to and from the United States.
This is not an election plot. This is basic human intelligence and decency. That is why every developed country in the Northern Hemisphere is taking similar and sometimes more dramatic steps as the United States.
ETA: This is Putin heading to a hospital in Russia. Does that look like a man who thinks this is no big deal? A good rule of thumb is to never let Putin show more compassion for people than you do.
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People are terrible at math / statistics. The mortality rate in the US is totally unknown. You can’t just divide deaths by total cases, because that assumes everyone of the active cases will result in a recovery, which won’t happen. And 80-90% of US cases are currently active with no known outcome.
Reference China’s numbers for a better example. They have had around 82,000 cases total, but only 5,000 or so are active. The mortality rate of the resolved 77,000 cases was about 4%. People are throwing around this 1.3% number like its the gospel, and it’s not. And even if it is, its still 13 times as deadly as the seasonal flu, which makes it very necessary to limit the spread as much as possible.
Reference China’s numbers for a better example. They have had around 82,000 cases total, but only 5,000 or so are active. The mortality rate of the resolved 77,000 cases was about 4%. People are throwing around this 1.3% number like its the gospel, and it’s not. And even if it is, its still 13 times as deadly as the seasonal flu, which makes it very necessary to limit the spread as much as possible.
The way you see the numbers on this is quite dangerous. I also think it will be a lot lower, but you have to be very careful talking about exponential growth.
Unmitigated(back to “business as usual”) we are less than 40 days from herd immunity in America. So you see these relatively small numbers now — but we are already near the brink of disaster in many places across the country now. 15 days from herd immunity there are only 2.5 million people infected.
So the numbers will hopefully continue to stay manageable and we see the flattening of the curve across the country in the next week or so.
Unmitigated(back to “business as usual”) we are less than 40 days from herd immunity in America. So you see these relatively small numbers now — but we are already near the brink of disaster in many places across the country now. 15 days from herd immunity there are only 2.5 million people infected.
So the numbers will hopefully continue to stay manageable and we see the flattening of the curve across the country in the next week or so.
MS hospitalization rate is like 31% for all infected. THIS IS NOT THE 17n FLU. It’s going to overwhelm our already struggling system and more people are going to die. People still trying to compare this to the flu are naive at best. or pushing some sort of political agenda from a corporation that is scared of losing too much profit and is pushing the narrative to confuse the easily confused
Well the 1.3% and 4% numbers are both bs in actuality because they are dealing only in symptomatic and/or tested people. When the only control test case shows that half the people that get it are totally asymptomatic. And it also doesn’t count the people that show mild symptoms, assume they have it, and hole up in their little corner for two weeks until it’s over and don’t go all over the country chasing a test and risking infection to others to prove an already assumed truth.
We won’t know real numbers until there is widespread antibodies testing....
We won’t know real numbers until there is widespread antibodies testing....
China's numbers aren't reliable. I wouldn't reference anything that they've done or are doing. And we'll never see a mortality rate that high here in the US.
One BIG thing people are not thinking about when you throw out the numbers of 50% or more of Americans could become infected with COVID. That number is NOT in one seasonal or calendar year like you are comparing to the flu or car or overdose deaths.
In the worst case scenario that 50% would become infected that number is calculated out over 3 seasons, or through the 2021-2022 season AND assuming worse case scenarios, meaning NO vaccines, NO treatment options, etc. AND IF WE DID NOTHING AND LET THE VIRUS JUST RUN ITS COURSE!!!!
With that, we are seeing promise with treatment options and testing will be stocked within the month, and hospitals will he stockpiled with critical supplies and ventilators to save lives. So the mortality rate WILL go down in US each day and week as we have more testing and not options. And the heat of the summer months will slow it.
Bottom line is we WILL have people die from this and it will be thousands and thousands in the US. That’s where the comparison to flu is coming from. Not that it’s just like the flu clinically or statistically necessarily, but it’s another virus pandemic that is going to take a good number of lives.
we have to stay shut down another two weeks at most and let that surge come down and let the system catch up with supplies and medicines then we will get back to work and play, with a good bit of changes to our social interactions with others for awhile.
In the worst case scenario that 50% would become infected that number is calculated out over 3 seasons, or through the 2021-2022 season AND assuming worse case scenarios, meaning NO vaccines, NO treatment options, etc. AND IF WE DID NOTHING AND LET THE VIRUS JUST RUN ITS COURSE!!!!
With that, we are seeing promise with treatment options and testing will be stocked within the month, and hospitals will he stockpiled with critical supplies and ventilators to save lives. So the mortality rate WILL go down in US each day and week as we have more testing and not options. And the heat of the summer months will slow it.
Bottom line is we WILL have people die from this and it will be thousands and thousands in the US. That’s where the comparison to flu is coming from. Not that it’s just like the flu clinically or statistically necessarily, but it’s another virus pandemic that is going to take a good number of lives.
we have to stay shut down another two weeks at most and let that surge come down and let the system catch up with supplies and medicines then we will get back to work and play, with a good bit of changes to our social interactions with others for awhile.
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You actually believe that 80% of the U.S. citizens are going to get infected? That will mean 261.76 Million people will get infected with Corona Virus. If 1.35% of those die that would be 3.5 Million.
There is no wonder everyone has lost their damn mind over this. There may be 10k people die in the US, MAY!
There is no wonder everyone has lost their damn mind over this. There may be 10k people die in the US, MAY!
1000s of deaths, I don't doubt that all... this will happen. I just don't see any way this hits millions of deaths
No, I was just saying if we had same number of COVID-19 cases as seasonal flu, the deaths would be much much higher and overwhelm our health care system worse than flu. I put .35% mortality rate in there which is much lower than current rate and what I believe it'll ultimately be.
I have no idea how many total cases we'll have, we'll likely never know until this is all over and we can look at total confirmed tests and do some modeling to figure out how many covid-19 cases the US ultimately had. Might be a year from now.
I have no idea how many total cases we'll have, we'll likely never know until this is all over and we can look at total confirmed tests and do some modeling to figure out how many covid-19 cases the US ultimately had. Might be a year from now.
Think about the state of Mississippi. Think about how rural most of it is, how difficult it is for most of the state to get to hospitals. Think of how many folks who have probably been infected but never darkened the door of a clinic or hospital.
That 31% number is severely skewed. Severely.
If you believe Putin is showing compassion to his people by wearing that get up, your compassion meter is off. If that really is Putin, his compassion is for himself, so he doesn’t catch anything. He is more likely to gather up all the people with Covid-19, put them in a large vat and set fire to them to try and eliminate the disease from his country.
Yes. many less will die. If we control the spread. Which is what we are trying to do. If we do nothing 50-80% of people would get the virus in about 18 months. If we treated this like the flu and didn't shut down schools, restaurants, theaters and churches, over 100 million infected was a certainty. This is not the flu. We can control the spread of flu through vaccine of 160 million people or more per year. Yet 40+ million people still get it.
Is it not reasonable to think think this virus that spreads faster and without symptoms for some, without any antibodies for all, without any vaccine, would infect a whole lot more people? If that doesn't jive with your sensibilities... Good luck.
All you have to do is watch video from NYC. That’s should tell you all you need to know. You’ll probably have a similar scene in NOLA soon.
quick, someone post the dead horse gif. Or jif as Bo B says,
quick, someone post the dead horse gif. Or jif as Bo B says,
Exactly! We are going to lose tens of thousands but not hundreds and millions of people in the US.
Claiming that 261.76 Million people in the US will get infected with Corona Virus does not jive with my sensibilities. In fact, I would be hard pressed to find a dumber statement.
I think what people like you are maybe not getting is that it's possible that COVID 19 is actually catastrophic and that the cure is still worse than the disease. I think what we are doing right now is reasonable in light of the unknowns and the potential for a few extra weeks of information to maybe let us refine our treatment options in a way that makes a meaningful difference in mortality rates, but using 325M as population of the US let's say 80% get infected (162.5M), half of those are symptomatic (81,250,000), and 2% of those will die if our hospitals aren't overrun (1,625,000 deaths), and 4% will die if they are overrun, so we can save 1,625,000 deaths by flattening the curve. Using a VSL of $1.5M (which is on the low end), that's roughly $2.44T, or about 12.5% of our GDP. If we knock off 15% of our GDP, that's going to look like a bad deal with those numbers, as that 15% won't be a one time blip, but will have knock on effects for the next few years at least probably. If you use a VSL of >$9M (which is what EPA uses), then you're talking about the lost lives being worth around 75% of GDP, in which case almost anything we do is not going to be worse than the disease. The $1.5M VSL seems low to me just gut checking it while the $9M VSL seems obviously wrong. But even if you double the VSL from $1.5 to $3M, we are still in the range of what we are going to do in damage to our GDP, and that's with a fairly pessimistic outlook as far as extra mortality if we don't flatten the curve.
I don't think Putin suiting up to avoid contacting the peons shows any compassion.
You are not getting what I am saying. Up to 261mn IF WE TREAT IT LIKE THE FLU. Which thank God we are not, yet. But some of you seem to want to.
This is not my math. This is from the experts. The doctors and scientists. If we were arguing about my property line, you would be the expert.
ETA. I found one science group in your boat.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/scientology-chief-david-miscavige-is-a-coronavirus-denier-says-top-critic
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Missing in these arguments. The flu is understood. Global healthcare systems are built to handle the flu. Even if this is "only" as bad as the regular flu, it will be a big problem. Trying to mitigate the exponential nature of the impact is smart. Go look at this graph to see how cyclical and predictable (an thus able to be planned for) the flu is: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2
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One death is too many. But I don't think we're even going to lose "tens of thousands" in the US from this. The mortality rate is going to continue to drop as testing improves and therapeutics are more available. By next year there will be a vaccine. And despite hysteria over the mutation of this, it was announced yesterday that this virus appears to be "stable," meaning it's not showing signs of mutation.
I don't deny it's a crisis and I don't deny that we need to be responsible to do our part in helping to flatten the curve. But it's nauseating to continue seeing the hysteria that's being driven by extrapolation of worst case scenario data.
A couple of deep breaths and a little bit of common sense would serve folks well right about now.
We can't treat it like the flu currently. But soon, we can, when testing is more widely available, therapeutics are more widely available, and eventually when a vaccine is available.
Wouldn't that be for a 3.5% mortality rate? I think you forgot to divide the 0.35 by 100. A 0.35% (0.0035) would give 133,000 deaths; still not good. BTW, New York is seeing a reduction in the number of hospitalizations. Hopefully that holds up.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ses-today-map-decrease-covid-19-a9425111.html
I 100% agree with this. We are not talking about a long period of time either... I hope.
MY BADDD!! I was using the calc on my computer. 133,000 would be the correct number!
ETA: Yes I multiplied 38mm by .035 not .0035.
ETA: Yes I multiplied 38mm by .035 not .0035.
This is misinformation. Yes, of those that are known positive through testing in MS, then 31% are reportedly hospitalized. But, we have no idea what the true denominator is. It would not surprise me if we discover Covid19 is ubiquitous...and has been since the fall. The only way to know who is or has been infected is to test everyone for current infection or antibodies. What if 23,000,000 people in the U.S. have already had it?
And there is another big difference from the regular flu. I don't know of anyone who gets the flu and are asymptomatic.
Signed,
the NYC, Atlanta, and New Orleans Hospitals...
Except they are to busy to respond...
Georgia has 1400 cases. Atlanta ICU's are at capacity....
Same in New Orleans.
Same In NYC.
Florida is next based on a temperature tracking app...
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