CFP projection question

[11thEagleFan]

So the new CFP rankings just dropped, and the projected teams, if the season ended today, looks like this:

1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) aTm
4) Georgia
5) Texas Tech
6) Ole Miss
7) Oregon
8) Oklahoma
9) Notre Dame
10) Alabama
13) Miami
24) Tulane

My question is this. Since the 5 highest rated conference champions get bids, why is Miami projected into the field? There are 4 ACC teams ahead of them with only 1 conference loss, respectively. Isn’t it going to be almost impossible for Miami to get in?

 

[Maroon13]

Because they want Miami in over any other acc schools. But really it's because Miami is ranked higher at the moment. Miamis win over ND and FSU are good. GT has played a weak schedule.

For Miami to win the acc. Pitt needs to beat GT. Miami has to beat Pitt.
SMU has to lose a game.
Miami has to beat UVA in the championship.

I'm sure there are many other scenarios. But that's a path for Miami.

 

[patdog]

I guess as an at large. They’re 13 now with 5 SEC schools ahead of them. So that’s essentially 12 (they’ll make sure SEC doesn’t get 5 teams in). Couple of wins could move them up. Either that or the projection is garbage. Probably some of both.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I kinda think Miami could get in without winning the ACC by virtue of their Notre Dame win.

Also, Bama is in a real precarious spot. They are basically the last at large team in at the moment. If they lose the iron bowl they’re out, if they win the iron bowl they have to play in Atlanta…. Where they could possibly pick up a third loss and get bumped out there.

 

[L4Dawg]

So the new CFP rankings just dropped, and the projected teams, if the season ended today, looks like this:

1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) aTm
4) Georgia
5) Texas Tech
6) Ole Miss
7) Oregon
8) Oklahoma
9) Notre Dame
10) Alabama
13) Miami
24) Tulane

My question is this. Since the 5 highest rated conference champions get bids, why is Miami projected into the field? There are 4 ACC teams ahead of them with only 1 conference loss, respectively. Isn’t it going to be almost impossible for Miami to get in?

That isn’t a projection. It’s the committee’s ranking.

 

[Maroon13]

Yep Alabama is screwed. The committee says they will not drop a team for playing in their conference championship but I guarantee they'll drop bama this year if they pick up a 3rd loss.

Especially if Miami wins out but doesn't win the acc. Or BYU wins the B12 over TT. The B12 will get two in.

Bamas only path is to beat Auburn and win the SECCG.

 

[11thEagleFan]

That isn’t a projection. It’s the committee’s ranking.

That makes sense, still a little confusing. They’re the highest ranked team from a conference that they probably won’t win, and that conference is looking like a 1-bid league.

 

[11thEagleFan]

Yep Alabama is screwed. The committee says they will not drop a team for playing in their conference championship but I guarantee they'll drop bama this year if they pick up a 3rd loss.

Especially if Miami wins out but doesn't win the acc. Or BYU wins the B12 over TT. The B12 will get two in.

Bamas only path is to beat Auburn and win the SECCG.

You hate to see it.

 

[BulldawgFan]

IF we beat Ole Miss then Ole Miss will be on the outside looking in since they’ll have an interim coach.

From CFP website:

• Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

 

[85Bears]

Yep Alabama is screwed. The committee says they will not drop a team for playing in their conference championship but I guarantee they'll drop bama this year if they pick up a 3rd loss.

Especially if Miami wins out but doesn't win the acc. Or BYU wins the B12 over TT. The B12 will get two in.

Bamas only path is to beat Auburn and win the SECCG.

There are a lot of Miami supporters in the media pushing for them to make it. they are a weird team, looked top 5 to start the year, loads of nfl talent, they stalled out and looked bad for a few games. Cristobal isnt getting the most out of that team, could be some dissension, locker room issues. I think they are by far the best team in the ACC and could beat quite a few of the teams in the playoffs if they get it together.

 

[Boosh]

Crazy to me that Miami is behind Notre Dame with same record and a head-to-head win. And Notre Dame is ahead of Bama with one ranked team win to Bama's four.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Crazy to me that Miami is behind Notre Dame with same record and a head-to-head win. And Notre Dame is ahead of Bama with one ranked team win to Bama's four.

Notre Dame has better losses than Miami. It’s a precedent that has been set in college football 40 years at least, and probably before that.

Not sure why we still argue about it, as head to head means less over the course of a season when you’re trying to compare a bunch of teams with unequal scheduling.

 

[Pookieray]

Crazy to me that Miami is behind Notre Dame with same record and a head-to-head win. And Notre Dame is ahead of Bama with one ranked team win to Bama's four.

ND brings and $, they'll do whatever it takes to get them in.

 

[Boosh]

Notre Dame has better losses than Miami. It’s a precedent that has been set in college football 40 years at least, and probably before that.

Not sure why we still argue about it, as head to head means less over the course of a season when you’re trying to compare a bunch of teams with unequal scheduling.

So they are saying that Notre Dame's loss to Miami is better, so that means ND is better than Miami? Isn't that circle logic? ... IDK, just seems to me that head-to-head should always trump other factors.

They also say conf championship games won't hurt you, but if Bama loses to A&M, or vice versa, do we really think it won't affect it?

 

[GloryDawg]

Scheduling has nothing to do with the decisions. It's what they want. I think they want four SEC, four Big 10, one G5, one Big 12 and two ACC. They probably don't want the G5 but has to get one in.

 

[Maroon13]

If aTm or UGA lose to Bama in the SECCG, aTm will still be a top 4. I bet UGA will fall out of the top 4 and Texas tech moves up to 4. Which is ridiculous.

Bama should not lost to Florida State. That's a bad loss.

 

[onewoof]

Yep Alabama is screwed. The committee says they will not drop a team for playing in their conference championship but I guarantee they'll drop bama this year if they pick up a 3rd loss.

Especially if Miami wins out but doesn't win the acc. Or BYU wins the B12 over TT. The B12 will get two in.

Bamas only path is to beat Auburn and win the SECCG.

The SEC will let that happen since aTm doesn't have a loss

 

[bulldognation]

FWIW, I’m pulling for North Texas to get in over Tulane. It’s time for Mean Green Mayhem.

 

[columbiadawg2]

I wonder what would happen if ND and Miami played against each other. I bet it'd be a good game, especially if it's in Miami.

 

[615dawg]

The projection is simply taking the highest ACC team (Miami) and projecting them as champion. Its easier that working out the 4-way tie that does not involve Miami.

But I will tell you this - if Miami ends up 10-2, I think they should get the at-large over Notre Dame. They played and Miami won. You have to reward head to head if teams have the same record.

 

[Perd Hapley]

The projection is simply taking the highest ACC team (Miami) and projecting them as champion. Its easier that working out the 4-way tie that does not involve Miami.

But I will tell you this - if Miami ends up 10-2, I think they should get the at-large over Notre Dame. They played and Miami won. You have to reward head to head if teams have the same record.

This above is correct. The projections are always going to include Miami until they are either mathematically out of contention for the ACC title game, or they lose another game, or both. The ACC is such a mess that there’s really no way to predict who will even play in the title game, let alone who would win it. So Miami is just a placeholder as the highest ranked ACC team until more information is available.

I will say this….they are definitely posturing to include Miami as an at-large over a 5th and/or 6th SEC team, and possibly over a 2nd Big 12 team, if circumstances allow. This is the type of corrupt crap that the committee does in the midseason rankings that never gets called out or discussed because it happens so early, but when its actually time for the final field to be released it makes it much easier for them to put the bluebloods in the field. And they should be called out for it.

What they did this week was mysteriously leapfrog Miami over Vanderbilt in the latest rankings. Week 11 - Vandy is #14 and Miami is #15. Week 12 - Miami is #13 and Vandy is #14. So what did Miami do to push them ahead of Vandy? Nothing. They beat the 12th place team in the ACC at home. Vandy didn’t play. There’s no argument at all that a win over a 5-5 NC State team at home is worth jumping an ACC team over an SEC team with the same record. But they did it anyway. Why? Because they know that a 10-2 Vandy with a potential win over a ranked Tennessee to finish the year that also has a quality win over Mizzou and no bad losses would definitely trump a 10-2 Miami with a loss to Louisville and only one decent win. So, they go ahead and make the flip now as a hedge. Both Vandy and Miami win out? Weeeelll…..Vandy’s win over UT was solid but not QUITE enough to move them past Miami for the final at-large bid. Totally ignores what happened just now with the swap. If I was a Vandy fan, I’d be pissed.

 

[Perd Hapley]

So that’s essentially 12 (they’ll make sure SEC doesn’t get 5 teams in).

I still don’t get this theory. The SEC will get 5 teams if the SEC deserves 5 teams. Or 6. Or 3. All of those options are currently still on the table.

It’s really quite simple. If Bama and OU win out, the SEC is getting 5 teams. Bama gets the autobid, and OU cannot drop any lower than where they already are (8th). A&M, OM, and UGA are already in, unless somehow UGA loses to Charlotte which is not 17ing happening. Now, be mindful that this takes 4 games all going a certain way. I can tell you without even looking at the matchup projections in those 4 games (or even knowing them, in the case of the SECCG) that the chances of both winning out are a lot lower than either of them losing one or more of their last two. It’s highly likely that at least one of them loses again. But if neither does, the SEC is definitely getting at least 5 teams. Very low probability of even 6 teams, depending on what shakes out with Vandy, Miami, Utah, BYU, and ND. But not a zero % chance of even that.

There are also multiple other paths to 5 SEC teams that include a Bama / OU loss, specifically with Bama-OU finishing 3-1 combined with the only loss being Bama in the SECCG, or Bama / Vandy winning out with OU dropping a game and some other chaos happening with Miami / ND / BYU / Utah. But those scenarios are more complicated and not really worth playing out until more results play out.

The overall point is that there is certainly a viable path to at least 5 SEC teams making the field that cannot be disputed by anyone.