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Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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End of regular season update….

Stone-cold locks right now (7 teams):

Oregon
Georgia
Ohio State
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Indiana
Texas

Can punch their autobid next weekend (7 teams):

Boise State (maybe at-large if they lose)
UNLV
SMU (maybe at-large if they lose)
Clemson
Penn State (probable at-large anyway)
Arizona State
Iowa State

Done and praying for at-large (4 teams):

Alabama (9-3)
South Carolina (9-3)
Ole Miss (9-3)
Miami (10-2)

OUT (7 teams):

Kansas State
Missouri
BYU
Texas A&M
Colorado
Army
Tulane
 
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Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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pseudonym said:
Texas is a stone cold lock.
Click to expand...
Not yet they aren’t. And definitely not if A&M beats them and then beats UGA to steal a bid.

I don’t think that they want to be 10-2, with no big wins, and fighting it out with 11-2 Penn State, 11-2 SMU or Miami, 11-1 Indiana, possibly 10-3 UGA, 9-3 Bama, 9-3 USCe, and 9-3 Ole Miss (8 total teams) for one of only 3 or 4 spots.

Very likely result today is that ND locks it up with win over USC, and PSU finishes Maryland to allow IU to lock up their spot with a win over 1-10 Purdue. That’s 6 locks, with 2 spots also assured of going to some combination of Tulane, UNLV, Boise State, and the Big 12 champ. There’s likely only going to be 4 spots left for at-large teams by nightfall….and a lot more than 4 teams gunning for them. 10-2 Texas with no good wins doesn’t have much to distinguish itself.
 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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I wonder if the committee has the balls to replace Indiana with Bama

Locks in my opinion
Texas
GA
Tenn
Penn State
Ohio State
Oregon
BSU
Big 12 most likely ASU.
SMU
Miami

Most likely
Indiana

With win
ND

Monkey Wrench Texas A&M
 
Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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Big domino falls…..Miami goes down to unranked Syracuse. They may now be out. Clemson loses at the beginning of the day, still makes ACC title game and has a shot.
 
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patdog

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Perd Hapley said:
Big domino falls…..Miami goes down to unranked Syracuse. They may now be out. Clemson loses at the beginning of the day, still makes ACC title game and has a shot.
Click to expand...
What this means is ACC only gets 1 team in. So that’s one domino Mississippi needed to fall.
 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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Personally, the top five ranked conference champions should get in. After that the other seven should be the seven best teams in the country regardless of if it has none, one, two or three losses. Also, the four highest ranked conference teams should not automatically get a bye. The four best teams should get the bye. There are SEC schools who would run circles around ASU, BYU and SMU that will not get into the playoff. I wish they would just go back to the BCS and take the top 12 teams. Then go top to bottom by that rankings.
 
Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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8dog said:
But what if Clemson beats smu? Is smu out?
Click to expand...
#79 SOS. No wins over ranked teams. I think they likely would be out, but a lot would depend on the chaos around them.

Would you agree to a 2-loss Boise State making the field as an at-large? Because they have about the same SOS as SMU.
 
8

8dog

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Perd Hapley said:
#79 SOS. No wins over ranked teams. I think they likely would be out, but a lot would depend on the chaos around them.

Would you agree to a 2-loss Boise State making the field as an at-large? Because they have about the same SOS as SMU.
Click to expand...
The committee was clear last week they don’t care about SOS You are also punishing a team for an extra game they earned. Not an easy decision.
 
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8dog

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Perd Hapley said:
How exactly did they make that clear?
Click to expand...
Warde manuals statement this week. Let me clarify. Not that they don’t care but they know teams can only play who they can play and they will really focus on this games. I should have said they really downplay SOS. I find it hard to believe a team should be punished for losing an extra game they earned.
 
Ranchdawg

Ranchdawg

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Perd Hapley said:
Not yet they aren’t. And definitely not if A&M beats them and then beats UGA to steal a bid.

I don’t think that they want to be 10-2, with no big wins, and fighting it out with 11-2 Penn State, 11-2 SMU or Miami, 11-1 Indiana, possibly 10-3 UGA, 9-3 Bama, 9-3 USCe, and 9-3 Ole Miss (8 total teams) for one of only 3 or 4 spots.

Very likely result today is that ND locks it up with win over USC, and PSU finishes Maryland to allow IU to lock up their spot with a win over 1-10 Purdue. That’s 6 locks, with 2 spots also assured of going to some combination of Tulane, UNLV, Boise State, and the Big 12 champ. There’s likely only going to be 4 spots left for at-large teams by nightfall….and a lot more than 4 teams gunning for them. 10-2 Texas with no good wins doesn’t have much to distinguish itself.
Click to expand...
If Texas loses they are 10-2 and bypass the SEC Championship game. They will be in the CFP in my opinion. Georgia and A&M will play for the SEC bid. I don't see a 9-3 team getting picked over them.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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I think they put 2 loss Miami in over Bama. I think the committee really wants to avoid having to pick between 3 loss SEC teams if they can absolutely help it.
 
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Coast_Dawg

Coast_Dawg

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How is Penn State not a lock on your list now? How are they going to drop to 12th or worse next week if they lose to Oregon? As long as they don’t lose by 40, they’re in.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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Coast_Dawg said:
How is Penn State not a lock on your list now? How are they going to drop to 12th or worse next week if they lose to Oregon? As long as they don’t lose by 40, they’re in.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think there are four Big 10 locks after tonight. Indiana is currently crushing Purdue.
 
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patdog

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MSUDC11-2.0 said:
Yeah I think there are four Big 10 locks after tonight. Indiana is currently crushing Purdue.
Click to expand...
Yep. As is Notre Dame. So that’s 4 of the 7 at large bids. Then Tennessee & Georgia/Texas loser, so that’s 6. Then either Bama or Miami. Looks like Mississippis is dead.
 
RopeDawg

RopeDawg

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Perd Hapley said:
As of 6:10 PM today….

Stone-cold locks right now (5 teams):

Oregon
Georgia
Ohio State
Tennessee
Notre Dame

Win tonight and IN (2 teams):

Indiana
Texas

Can punch their autobid next weekend (4 teams):

Boise State
SMU
Clemson
Penn State

Must win tonight to stay alive (4 teams):

Iowa State
BYU
Texas A&M
UNLV

Must win next weekend to stay alive (1 team):

Army

Done and praying for help (6 teams):

Alabama (9-3)
South Carolina (9-3)
Ole Miss (9-3)
Miami (10-2)
Arizona State (10-2)
Colorado (9-3)

OUT (1 team):

Missouri
Click to expand...
Big 12 winner automatic. AZst #1.
 
RopeDawg

RopeDawg

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Perd Hapley said:
Not yet they aren’t. And definitely not if A&M beats them and then beats UGA to steal a bid.

I don’t think that they want to be 10-2, with no big wins, and fighting it out with 11-2 Penn State, 11-2 SMU or Miami, 11-1 Indiana, possibly 10-3 UGA, 9-3 Bama, 9-3 USCe, and 9-3 Ole Miss (8 total teams) for one of only 3 or 4 spots.

Very likely result today is that ND locks it up with win over USC, and PSU finishes Maryland to allow IU to lock up their spot with a win over 1-10 Purdue. That’s 6 locks, with 2 spots also assured of going to some combination of Tulane, UNLV, Boise State, and the Big 12 champ. There’s likely only going to be 4 spots left for at-large teams by nightfall….and a lot more than 4 teams gunning for them. 10-2 Texas with no good wins doesn’t have much to distinguish itself.
Click to expand...
Texas is 100% locked in even if A&M comes back
 
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RopeDawg

RopeDawg

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11 spots already set basically. Alabama likely gets last spot.

Oregon
OHst
Texas
UGA
PennSt
ND
Tennesee
Indiana
Boise St/Army (Group of 5)
SMU/Miami (ACC)
Arizona St. (Big 12)

basically just 1 spot left- Alabama, SMU, USCe, OM, Big12#2
 
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POTUS

POTUS

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RopeDawg said:
11 spots already set basically. Alabama likely gets last spot.

Oregon
OHst
Texas
UGA
PennSt
ND
Tennesee
Indiana
Boise St/Army (Group of 5)
SMU/Miami (ACC)
Arizona St. (Big 12)

basically just 1 spot left- Alabama, SMU, USCe, OM, Big12#2
Click to expand...
Clemson can still win ACC right? They only have one conference loss. They could take 12th spot.
 
Coast_Dawg

Coast_Dawg

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Oregon
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Georgia
Tennessee
ACC Champ (SMU or Clemson)
Ohio State
Indiana
MWC Champ (Boise State or UNLV)
Last At-Large (Alabama/SMU as ACC#2)
Big 12 Champ (Arizona State/Iowa State/Colorado)
 
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Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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8dog said:
Warde manuals statement this week. Let me clarify. Not that they don’t care but they know teams can only play who they can play and they will really focus on this games. I should have said they really downplay SOS. I find it hard to believe a team should be punished for losing an extra game they earned.
Click to expand...
I’ll believe it when I see it. If it comes down to 11-2 SMU against 9-3 Bama for the last at large, I know who I’d put my money on.
 
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famdawg

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<Updated following the Texas victory>
In no particular order:
(I hadn’t seen Coast_Dawgs post when I initially posted this, but we are in agreement.)
1. Oregon, Big 10, 0 Losses, In Big 10 Championship Game
2. Penn State, Big 10, 1 Loss, In Big 10 Championship Game
3. Indiana, Big 10, 1 Loss, Done
4. Ohio State, Big 10, 2 Losses, Done
5. Texas, SEC, 1 Loss, In SEC Championship Game
6. Georgia, SEC, 2 Losses, In SEC Championship Game
7. Tennessee, SEC, 2 Losses, Done
8. Notre Dame, Independent, 1 Loss, Done
9. ACC Championship Game Winner (SMU vs Clemson)
10. Big 12 Championship Game Winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State/Colorado)
11. Mountain West Championship Game Winner (Boise State vs UNLV)
12. The final spot will likely either go to SMU (if they lose the ACC Championship Game) or Alabama, although there are a few other slim possibilities.
Again, in no particular order.
 
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Perd Hapley

Perd Hapley

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Coast_Dawg said:
How is Penn State not a lock on your list now?
Click to expand...

Coast_Dawg said:
As long as they don’t lose by 40, they’re in.
Click to expand...

You answered your own question. A “lock” -by very definition - means there are absolutely zero “as long as _________ doesn’t happen” scenarios in play.

Penn State and Texas are similar. Both have good records but neither has any good wins (yet….Texas is working on at least getting a Top 20 win). Both lost at home to other CFP teams. I’m treating neither as a lock as of right now, but Texas gets there in about 20 minutes of football time, most likely.
 
Coast_Dawg

Coast_Dawg

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famdawg said:
Here is what I‘m seeing as the 12, in no particular order, and assuming Texas wins tonight:
Oregon, Big 10, 0 Losses, In Big 10 Championship Game
Penn State, Big 10, 1 Loss, In Big 10 Championship Game
Indiana, Big 10, 1 Loss, Done
Ohio State, Big 10, 2 Losses, Done
Texas, SEC, 1 Loss, In SEC Championship Game
Georgia, SEC, 2 Losses, In SEC Championship Game
Tennessee, SEC, 2 Losses, Done
Notre Dame, Independent, 1 Loss, Done
ACC Championship Game Winner (SMU or Clemson)
Two of the following:
- Big 12 Champion (Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado, or BYU)
- Mountain West Champion (Boise State or UNLV)
- American Athletic Champion (Tulane or Army)
Final Spot:
- SEC At Large (Alabama, South Carolina or Ole Miss)
- ACC At Large (Championship Game Loser or Miami)
Click to expand...
AAC not getting in. Army wasn’t even ranked. Tulane got handled by Memphis. Neither of them are jumping Boise St or UNLV.
 
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Coast_Dawg

Coast_Dawg

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Perd Hapley said:
You answered your own question. A “lock” -by very definition - means there are absolutely zero “as long as _________ doesn’t happen” scenarios in play.
Click to expand...
Maybe I should have said lose by 100. Nothing they do next week will keep them from getting in. They will not drop below Ohio State at this point.
 
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