Coach34 - I understand where you are coming from - but I can't get past.....

[female dawg]

the statistical reality. Please take it easy on me - and don't misread my username to assume I'm the definition of a female dog - I'm just an actual female dawg that loves football.


I spent an hour this morning on the SEC website - and these are the facts about Mississippi and us when doing a year end SEC only statistical comparison:

Offense:

Rushing - Miss - 11 MSU 13
Passing - Miss 3 - MSU 5
Total O - Miss 6 - MSU 9
Scoring - Miss - 6 MSU 8

Defense:

Rushing - Miss 7 MSU 12
Passing - Miss 12 MSU 7
Total D - Miss 7 MSU 9
Scoring - Miss 9 MSU 8

To make this an apples to apples comparison - we each played the 6 other SEC W teams including each other. But - we played UK and UT and they played UGA and Vandy. This is how those teams ranked:

UK finished 10, 14, 14 and 14 in the offensive categories and 10,11,12 and 13 in the defensive categories while UT finished a respectable 6, 4,4,4 in offensive categories but a deplorable - 13,14,14 and 14 in defensive categories.

Vandy finished - 7,7,8 and 10 in offensive categories and 11,3,6 and 5 in defensive categories while UGA finished - 4,6,2 and 3 on offense and 5,5,4 and 3 on D.

Unfortunately for my analysis - it appears that they played statistically better teams (although UT's offense was similar to UGA's offense statistically). Defensively - they played much better (statistically) teams than we did. We played the 2 worst (statistically) defenses in the SEC - yet they finished higher than us in every offensive category.

Additionally - they finished higher than us in almost every meaningful statistical category while playing 2 teams clearly ranked higher statistically than we did (all other competition being equal).

The SEC teams we beat had a combined conference record of 3 and 29. The teams Miss beat had a combined record of 6-18.

So - here's my beef with Mullen. This is year 4. Bucky is in year 1. They were expected to be horrible and a month ago we were thinking a BCS bowl on the outside and 10 wins at worst. Why should I be optimistic going forward when we are keeping (according to your sources - I don't know) our DC and we are losing Banks, Broom, Slay, Boyd and Cam on D. I see the O being the same or better if Coach finally starts playing Dak - but we lose a lot of a Defense that was in the bottom half of the conference.

How will next year be any better? We not only lose some serious D talent but the schedule flips. We have to go to USC and play OSU. That's two games harder than this year.

8-4 is great until you start breaking it down. I will be in Jacksonville rooting for my dawgs and clanging my bell just like I was in Oxford (sans bell).

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

Well here's your problem: "month ago we were thinking a BCS bowl on the outside and 10 wins at worst"

What the hell were you smoking when making these predictions?

 

[Shmuley]

Has to be done. Pics or GTFO.

 

[maroonmania]

the statistical reality. Please take it easy on me - and don't misread my username to assume I'm the definition of a female dog - I'm just an actual female dawg that loves football.


I spent an hour this morning on the SEC website - and these are the facts about Mississippi and us when doing a year end SEC only statistical comparison:

Offense:

Rushing - Miss - 11 MSU 13
Passing - Miss 3 - MSU 5
Total O - Miss 6 - MSU 9
Scoring - Miss - 6 MSU 8

Defense:

Rushing - Miss 7 MSU 12
Passing - Miss 12 MSU 7
Total D - Miss 7 MSU 9
Scoring - Miss 9 MSU 8

To make this an apples to apples comparison - we each played the 6 other SEC W teams including each other. But - we played UK and UT and they played UGA and Vandy. This is how those teams ranked:

UK finished 10, 14, 14 and 14 in the offensive categories and 10,11,12 and 13 in the defensive categories while UT finished a respectable 6, 4,4,4 in offensive categories but a deplorable - 13,14,14 and 14 in defensive categories.

Vandy finished - 7,7,8 and 10 in offensive categories and 11,3,6 and 5 in defensive categories while UGA finished - 4,6,2 and 3 on offense and 5,5,4 and 3 on D.

Unfortunately for my analysis - it appears that they played statistically better teams (although UT's offense was similar to UGA's offense statistically). Defensively - they played much better (statistically) teams than we did. We played the 2 worst (statistically) defenses in the SEC - yet they finished higher than us in every offensive category.

Additionally - they finished higher than us in almost every meaningful statistical category while playing 2 teams clearly ranked higher statistically than we did (all other competition being equal).

The SEC teams we beat had a combined conference record of 3 and 29. The teams Miss beat had a combined record of 6-18.

So - here's my beef with Mullen. This is year 4. Bucky is in year 1. They were expected to be horrible and a month ago we were thinking a BCS bowl on the outside and 10 wins at worst. Why should I be optimistic going forward when we are keeping (according to your sources - I don't know) our DC and we are losing Banks, Broom, Slay, Boyd and Cam on D. I see the O being the same or better if Coach finally starts playing Dak - but we lose a lot of a Defense that was in the bottom half of the conference.

How will next year be any better? We not only lose some serious D talent but the schedule flips. We have to go to USC and play OSU. That's two games harder than this year.

8-4 is great until you start breaking it down. I will be in Jacksonville rooting for my dawgs and clanging my bell just like I was in Oxford (sans bell).

I'm actually extremely impressed with any woman that would take the time to pull out these kinds of detailed statistics on a football team she follows. Kudos to you.

 

[FreeDawg]

I agree with a lot of your points. Good post. I just can't figure out how you get such a good Internet signal in the kitchen**

 

[FISHDAWG]

something rotten in the state of Denmark ?

 

[onewoof]

a month ago we were thinking a BCS bowl on the outside and 10 wins at worst.

We were thinking BCS bowl and 10 wins at worst?

 

[RiverBullyBullDawg]

Barefoot, pregnant and watching a lot of football. (smiley face). Stats don't necessarily mean **** in football. A pick 6, wide-right, penalties just to name a few hose it all up.

 

[slickdawg]

I agree with a lot of your points. Good post. I just can't figure out how you get such a good Internet signal in the kitchen**

ok, I laughed.

 

[Dawg1976]

I'm afraid you might be in for a surprise when you bring her home.

 

[female dawg]

maybe not collectively - but I was..

I knew Bama and LSU would be tough - especially on the road - but thought we could take lsu. I figured we would handle the bears and aggies. 10 wins at worst. bcs a little much probably.

 

[ClintonInHelen]

I'd hit it.

hitku

 

[Shmuley]

[/trumpet fanfare].

 

[Coach34]

I knew Bama and LSU would be tough - especially on the road - but thought we could take lsu. I figured we would handle the bears and aggies. 10 wins at worst. bcs a little much probably.

First off- very good post. Was very well thought out and not full of emotion.

Secondly- you bring up some valid points. I'm not saying that all is rosy. I'm in no way saying we need to be satisfied. But it is still 8 wins and a NYD bowl game. It's like you meeting a rich guy but then complaining that he has an average size penis. Could it be better? Sure. But at the end of the day, a big wallet is better than nothing.

Going forward, we have to make some changes, both on offense and defense. We need to do some things different to make Tyler more successful or we need to play Dak alot more. Not sure which will happen right now. Defensively, we will get alot better when our DL gets better. Quay, James, Virges, Eulls...will all be older and should be better inside...and Autry, Smith, and some of those guys that played DE should be improved also. They hold the key to our defense next year.

 

[RiverBullyBullDawg]

When you need to know about football just ask the great Swami (Coach34) for all the answers

 

[Shmuley]

That's a man, baby.

 

[tenureplan]

Swami sez

He would take (receive) an average cock for a fat wallet any day.


No, he really did....

"It's like you meeting a rich guy but then complaining that he has an average size penis. Could it be better? Sure. But at the end of the day, a big wallet is better than nothing. "

 

[Phil Wenneck.sixpack]

Excuse me, is this seat taken? I think I'm in love. Great post.

 

[TSUNBearHunter]

It's like you meeting a rich guy but then complaining that he has an average size penis. Could it be better? Sure. But at the end of the day, a big wallet is better than nothing.
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]

[/FONT]

Or like meeting a pretty fitness girl with an average sized dick. Am I right, Coach?

 

[ket7450]

First off- very good post. Was very well thought out and not full of emotion.

Secondly- you bring up some valid points. I'm not saying that all is rosy. I'm in no way saying we need to be satisfied. But it is still 8 wins and a NYD bowl game. It's like you meeting a rich guy but then complaining that he has an average size penis. Could it be better? Sure. But at the end of the day, a big wallet is better than nothing.

Going forward, we have to make some changes, both on offense and defense. We need to do some things different to make Tyler more successful or we need to play Dak alot more. Not sure which will happen right now. Defensively, we will get alot better when our DL gets better. Quay, James, Virges, Eulls...will all be older and should be better inside...and Autry, Smith, and some of those guys that played DE should be improved also. They hold the key to our defense next year.

Is this the kind of girl that has to have her "eye dotted', Coach?

 

[TUSK.sixpack]

would you come over to my place? we can crunch XLS to the wee hours....

 

[thunderclap]

The reason for these statistics is simple: they played harder than we did.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Post makes it clear OM was the better team this year

Freeze's younger, less-talented team outperformed the Dawgs experienced, future NFL player laden team which isn't a good sign for the future.

How the hell did this happen when State was supposed to compete for 2nd the west and everyone thought OM was an 0-8 lock?

 

[Todd4State]

So, you're name is female dog?

You could have saved yourself some time by going with the user name b----. Same difference as a female dog.

Anyways, miraculously you make some good points- other than maybe the beating LSU part, but I'll let that slide.

We will be fine IF Dan makes the proper changes at OC and DC and he gets back to going to true relentless effort. If he doesn't- I expect more of the same next year. The ball is pretty much in his court right now. I personally think he has gotten too comfortable with what he has done in Starkville and that is a reflection of what we saw on the field this year.

Ole Miss is a good example of what can happen if you play with all out effort and if you put your players in a position to win with scheme. Last year, Ole Miss didn't play with good effort because they quit because of Nutt getting fired and they had nothing to play for and you also see their performance there and what happened with many of the same players.

If Dan doesn't make the appropriate changes I will be highly upset with him. Needless to say.

 

[HammerOfTheDogs]

Girls post on sports message boards?

 

[Shmuley]

"Get your *** in there and make my ham sammich."

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Freeze's younger, less-talented team outperformed the Dawgs experienced, future NFL player laden team which isn't a good sign for the future.

How the hell did this happen when State was supposed to compete for 2nd the west and everyone thought OM was an 0-8 lock?

They were overlooking us for the bowl game. Just as Bama overlooked us right after Florida Atlantic and with an open date and road trip to Missouri the next week, TAMU overlooked us with La. Tech the next week, Auburn overlooked us with Vandy the next week, coming off a bye-week, Arkansas overlooked us with Tulsa on the horizon, Vandy held on despite looking ahead to SEC winless Tennessee. LSU, of course, was softened up for us by MSU and looking ahead to Arkansas. Then the Egg Bowl? Like every other team we beat, every more talented team we beat or played to the wire, the Bulldogs just overlooked us to get ready for the Capital One or Cotton bowl.

That's not the one? The Sugar then, right? Still no? The Outback or Peach, surely? Still no. Wow. Maybe teams should've quit overlooking us at some point. Maybe a bit more dangerous to do that next year.

 

[Felonious Junk]

how can you make me a sammich and type at the same time?

less typing, more sammiches

 

[TUSK.sixpack]

no, no, no, Shmu.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd30JESdb9o

nt

 

[BiscuitEater]

Rational ...

How the hell did this happen when State was supposed to compete for 2nd the west and everyone thought OM was an 0-8 lock?

fans on both sides 'understand' that post JV, no team has been able to 'dominate' for any period of time.

After three years of getting the **** kicked out of them, OM did what State did four years earlier - They hired an young, unproven coach that came in and energized the team and the base.

State fans looking at both teams now, have to admit that OM was better than we thought (and better coached) and State was not.

One glaring weakness with the stats listed above was the absence of 'other factors.' Bucky red shirted "All SEC" punter and PK. That may have cost a game ... maybe two. Another item is TO margin. MSU led the SEC with +17 while OM was #8 with a -1. An 18 TO margin is a major huge difference.

 

[Dawgg]

Sorry, I'm a little late to the party on this one... but there are some things that should be pointed out...

First off... Total O for SEC only is Mississippi #6 and the Good Guys #7 (not #9). Also, to just throw out rushing yards/passing yards/scoring doesn't paint a complete picture. You have to look at things like yards you have the opportunity to gain. When you do things like force turnovers as well as we did this year, you'll have better field position generally. Better field position means there are fewer yards to be gained.

We had 1 more kickoff return than they did, but had almost 200 more return yards, which averages out to 6 more yards per return. Even if you take away Laveon's return, that's still 3.3 more yards per return, which makes up about 92.5 total yards. When you add up that deficiency, the total comes out to be more like 3170-3111, less than 60 yards or 8 yards/game.

Scoring Offense - For all the "Freeze's offensive juggernaut" talk, we scored the exact same number of touchdowns in conference play (we scored more actually in non-conference). they kicked 14 out of 18 field goals compared to our 5 of 12. We knew FG kicking was weak for us this year. If that was news to you, you haven't been watching very closely.

Passing Offense - Again, we actually have more completions and more passing touchdowns. Plus we had a grand total of 5 interceptions this year vs 12 for the other guys. We're actually listed with a higher efficiency rating. They have slightly more yards, but only about 5.5/game. We also only allowed 14 sacks this year against their 22 (though anyone with a brain will tell you that sacks, as a statistical rule have no real significance)

Rushing Offense - 11 to 13 is like seeing who can whisper the loudest. We actually have more yards per carry, but let's face it, something happened to Ladarius during the Alabama game. he was never the same after that. He was leading the SEC in rushing until that point and lost his confidence somewhere between that and the injury. it always seemed to be some weak stutterstep move to the outside or some aborted fetus of an option play...

Now, to defense...
As far as the scoring offenses we both faced from the east, Georgia and UT are 3 and 4, somewhat comparable. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are the real disparity, but c'mon, it's still Vanderbilt. It's one thing to lose to us three years in a row. To get beaten by freaking Vanderbilt three years in a row (or 6 out of the last 8) is a GD embarassment no matter who's coaching. Also, Kentucky had more rushing yards than either of us and only 100 fewer than Vanderbilt.

Total/Rush/Scoring Defense - We allowed a grand total of 63 more yards than they did, the big difference being rushing yards against a very young D Line. We knew Fletcher Cox would be hard to replace. This showed it. Plus again, the disparity in Rushing stats between our East foes is not as great as you make it out to be.

Pass Defense - Out of our east foes, we actually played the best team statistically in Tennesse, yet we smoked Mississippi University in this category.

Also... there's no such thing as "apple to apples". It's college football. Any given team can beat any given team at any time under the right circumstances. We beat the team that beat the team that beat Florida State, but to compared each game to the other is ridiculous because each game stands on its own. This is why you have days where a piece of **** like Mississippi University beats us.

Finally... what's the point of your post? To make us feel bad about our (and supposedly your) prospects for next year? We just got beat by the biggest piece of **** in the Southeastern Conference. For my money, I'd rather get beat by Maine than those fumarase deficiency victims and bowtied invertebrates in Oxford.

Is it to call out Coach? Which, believe me, I'm all for, but there are better ways of doing it than coming in here and crapping on the **** sandwich we just ate. Unless, of course, my suspicion is true and you're a troll (albeit a good one) which if you are, given the effeminate nature of Mississippi University fans, means, you're probably not a female either.

Also, 10-2... really?

 

[GhostOfJackie]

pics?

 

[thf24]

Freeze's younger, less-talented team outperformed the Dawgs experienced, future NFL player laden team which isn't a good sign for the future.

How the hell did this happen when State was supposed to compete for 2nd the west and everyone thought OM was an 0-8 lock?

Younger? Yes. Less depth? Yes. But you guys need to stop making it seem like you overcame a lack of talent through playing hard and Freeze's genius alone, and we need to stop buying into it. We have no one like Moncrief (not to mention a lot of the SEC), Gross outperformed everyone on our D-line as a true freshman, and Wallace exceeded expections and was a huge asset despite being a turnover machine, just to name a few. Freeze made out like the cupboard was completely bare in the preseason and you guys maintained that throughout, but it's simply not true.

 

[fishwater99]

First off- very good post. Was very well thought out and not full of emotion.


Going forward, we have to make some changes, both on offense and defense. We need to do some things different to make Tyler more successful or we need to play Dak alot more. Not sure which will happen right now. Defensively, we will get alot better when our DL gets better. Quay, James, Virges, Eulls...will all be older and should be better inside...and Autry, Smith, and some of those guys that played DE should be improved also. They hold the key to our defense next year.

What makes you think Dan will make any changes for next year. He knew what he had in TR and did very little to change our offense to better suit his skill set. I just don't see Dan making any changes...

 

[Dawg Jurist]

A Rebel found out someone over here was into big wallets and little dicks. He couldn't resist stopping by. Are you disappointed it's Coach34?