This is the correct answer above all other skills. That's crappy to say considering the level of technical skill required to be successful, but it is the truth.
About 50% of my professional career is in data analysis. I play around with sports stats to try new stuff and keep my skills sharp when I have downtime. There's plenty of raw data to play around with and lots of opportunities to explore new ways of looking at it. I have primarily stuck to college football but have just started branching into college wrestling. One of the things that everyone intuitively knows is that recruiting is very important. What most people don't understand is exactly how important it is.
I've gone through data and results for the last 10 recruiting classes, and the numbers really are staggering when you look at them in aggregate. I personally expected there to be some difference, but not what I actually saw. Of the 100 top 10 nationally ranked kids coming out of high school over the last decade, 54 hit the podium. Of the 46 that didn't, 34 still have eligibility left and could still do so. 19 of those 34 were guys that signed in 2024 and redshirted or guys that are 2025 recruits...and 13 have qualified for the tournament and a bunch of them will have top 8 seeds.
Compare those numbers against guys that were ranked 11-20. Individually, there's not a ton of difference. You may be talking about a guy that's ranked 2nd or 3rd at his weight in his class. Miniscule differences individually but in aggregate it's a significant difference. Only 28 out of the 100 hit the podium. About half still have some eligibility remaining but only 19 of the guys that haven't already hit the podium have qualified.
That's only comparing the top 10 recruits to the guys ranked 11th-20th. When you get below 20th, the numbers get much worse. Yeah, you might find a Mikey Caliendo (2021 #52) or a Wyatt Hendrickson (2019 #40) but those kinds of guys are few and far between.
Looking only at the last 4 tournaments across all weight classes:
| Place | Median Natl Rank | Median Position Rank |
|---|
| 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | 2 |
| 3 | 15 | 2 |
| 4 | 25 | 3 |
| 5 | 40 | 5 |
| 6 | 33 | 4 |
| 7 | 47 | 6 |
| 8 | 53 | 8 |
The oddity is 6th place and the data basically says about 1/3 of guys that finish there were highly ranked recruits who are freshmen or sophomores who ended up in the consi's and a lot of middle-to-upper ranked recruits who are juniors and seniors.
If you want to be in the thick of it and actually compete for a national title, it starts with recruiting. Period. What the data is suggesting is that a coaching staff and development may be the difference between a placement or two but the ability to consistently get on the podium is more driven by the quality of the recruit. I may get trolled for saying that, but that's what the data is indicating. If you're going to compete, you need to be signing 1-2 top 10 kids every year and another 2 kids ranked in the top 20. That should be the base of the class and you can add more outside of that, but that should be the base. The numbers will work themselves out. If you're not doing that, you're competing for a team trophy and not really competing for a championship.
For what it is worth, as of right now Iowa's 2027 class is built like that and the 2028 class looks to be building like that, but the 2022, 2024, and 2026 classes aren't.
Oklahoma State is going to seriously challenge Penn State starting next year not because Taylor is a coaching genius but because they've been recruiting so well and are going to have one of the most talented rosters in the country.
