Collins: Stay or Go Criteria
- Thread starter AdamOnFirst
- Start date
At this point I'd probably want to preface the question with what our schedule looks like coming up. At this point, NU is only favored in probably 4 of their remaining 12 games. February is brutal. This could easily be the high point before reality crashes in... or we could keep playing well, grab a couple extra wins in there, and have a legit coach of the year candidate in our building.
I'm nervous about saying it out loud as we enter this February schedule, but that's very obviously a true statement.
In this year's B1G, I am not sure that who is favored really has any bearing on whom you should expect to win.
That and all but like 3 of their remaining games are 2 to 4 point matters in either direction, so it's a narrow thing.
Exactly this. You figure nearly every game left on the schedule can go either way, so on average NU will win about half, but 50/50 games have a tendency to come down to anything. A team can go 0-12 or 12-0, but considering the coin-flip nature of the schedule, anything can happen. Maybe this is the year NU goes 8-4 during a stretch like that.
Yes. I looked at it last night and my recollection is we’re favored in Minny at home, Iowa at home, Penn State at home and I think Michigan at home. Indiana at home and Wisconsin on the road are both really close. At Iowa, Maryland, OSU, and Rutgers are all 4-7 point dog situations.
Edit: just glanced at it again and that’s correct.
I looked at Real-Time RPI, which is as good as any place at predicting results, and shockingly, there is a logjam between second place and 13th in the Big Ten.
MSU, Iowa, and Rutgers are projected to go 11-9, and no less than six teams (including NU) to go 10-10. Factoring in these projections plus the conference tourney, there are seven teams projected to finish 20-13 (including NU), and Michigan State is projected to go 21-13. Ohio State (18-15, 9-11) and Wisconsin (18-14, 9-11) can easily join this group as well with a few well-timed wins. They have the benefit (if you want to call it that) of getting a first-round conference win to pad their overall win totals, but any team finishing 11th or 12th in the conference is probably losing too many close games to work their way back into NCAA contention.
It's going to be a crazy month!
MSU, Iowa, and Rutgers are projected to go 11-9, and no less than six teams (including NU) to go 10-10. Factoring in these projections plus the conference tourney, there are seven teams projected to finish 20-13 (including NU), and Michigan State is projected to go 21-13. Ohio State (18-15, 9-11) and Wisconsin (18-14, 9-11) can easily join this group as well with a few well-timed wins. They have the benefit (if you want to call it that) of getting a first-round conference win to pad their overall win totals, but any team finishing 11th or 12th in the conference is probably losing too many close games to work their way back into NCAA contention.
It's going to be a crazy month!
Every game is huge which is a lot more than we could say in the last few years. Again, I'm looking on the whole season as an adventure to enjoy. Let's forget the end result for now. This team is fun to watch.
Favored against Penn State? I wouldn't count on that. Since my brother and nephew are PSU alums, I play attention to that game, and the Cats for whatever reason almost always play like crap against Penn State.
That "whatever" reason recently was the fact thar John Harrar annihilated Pete Nance and Robbie Beran on the boards.
Yeah but we have a crap record against them since Ed Debevic (sic) was the coach
Ed Dechellis.....and I agree with you, PSU has had NU's number since then. PSU is 20-11 against the Cats since Ed took over.
Not that any game has ever been a gimme for NU, but I feel like there an inordinate number of games against Penn State over the years that seemed like we could hope for a W to help our postseason chances and Penn State seemed to win all of them. In other words, DON'T SLEEP ON PENN STATE.
My favorite NU-PSU game was circa 2005. Maybe it was the year Michael ‘walk-on’ Jenkins started. Both programs were terrible. They got a terrible ESPN slot for NU’s only national appearance of the year. Like, Saturday at 11 on ESPN2. And the game would never end. Two overtimes in the era before you could stream your app to watch the game you were missing. I felt for the fans of whichever top 25 programs were playing next, and, really, any hoops fan who got 25% more from those atrocious teams.
Seriously, I really like this post from last February 10, that I upvoted after the Nebraska win.
I’m Nostradamus of CCC’s psyche.
EXTENSION!
at least. He has to rebuild again as he has a bunch of guys moving on in the next couple years so if there are two years left, probably have to add 3 at this point
With @CoralSpringsCat resurfacing old threads at the moment, I’d like to resurrect this one. This is because I AM A GENIUS.
BOO IS THE ALPHA.
(Who knows why I singled out Greer? And Berry took the hard-nosed D role I pegged for Roper.)
Go Cats Go Cats Go
The internet is all over All American Boo Buie today.
What advantages? You mean like actually showing up when a recruit visits? Believing in rebounding?