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Comparing MSU and UT recent history.

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mstate1977

Redshirt
Mar 4, 2009
183
0
0
It seems like all I am hearing out of Pumpkinland these days is that they are going to beat us handily. Most of their fans seems to be basing this prediction on the facts that a) they are UT and we are MSU, and b) they are going to out talent us. Now I know that past performance is not necessarily a good indicator of future performance, but I wanted to try to get a realistic view of where each team is and how they compare to each other. The only way that I know of to compare two teams is to look at their performance versus common opponents. So I decided to look at the W/L records of MSU and UT over the last three years. I chose three years because 2009 was the first season for our senior classes (not including redshirts). Granted, there's a lot more that goes on during a season than strictly wins and losses and point differentials, but If there was as great a drop off in talent between us and UT, the numbers should give some indication of this. Since Tyler Bray seems to make up a large part of their offence and he has spent a large part of the last two years hurt or not starting, I decided to differentiate the games that he played in by placing them in ().

So here it is.

MSUUT
1-5 (1-1)0-6 (0-2)
opponentMSUUT
ArkL 44-17L 49-7
UK(W 28-16)(L 10-7)
UGA(L 24-10)(L 20-12)
LSUL 19-6L 38-7
BamaL 24-7L 37-6
points for80
42
Points against141168

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differential-61-126

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2010

MSUUT
6-2 (4-1)4-4 (3-2)
opponentMSUUT
UK(W 24-17)(W 24-14)
UM(W 31-23)(W 52-14)
Memphis(W 49-7)(W 50-14)
Bama(L 10-30)(L 10-41)
UGA(W 24-12)(L 14-41)
LSUL 7-29L 14-16
UABW 29-24W 32-29
UFW 10-7L 17-31
points for184 (13213 (150)
points against149 (89)200 (124)

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differential+35 (+49)+13 (+26)

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2009

MSUUT
3-32-4
opponentMSUUT
UKW 31-24W 30-24
VandyW 15-3W 31-16
UMW 41-27L 17-42
BamaL 3-31L 10-12
AUL 24-49L 22-26
UFL19-29L 13-23
points for133123
points against163143
differential-30-20

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Overall for the last 3 years vs. common opponents, we are 10-10 while they are 6-14. Of those games in which Tyler Bray played in, they are 3-4 while we went 5-2 versus the same teams. So, unless they have had an amazing amount of new talent come in this year, I'm not seeing a huge drop off in talent for us based on the performance of our team compared to theirs versus the same competition.

What do you guys think? What am I missing?

eta: updated Georgia 2011 score. Thanks to TrustInDan for catching my error.
 
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esplanade91

Redshirt
Dec 9, 2010
5,656
0
0
USCe is what I hope we turn out to be soon. They were garbage forever, no one liked them, no one respected them, then BOOM they hire one of the greatest coaches of the last 20 years and they're on their way to a BCS bowl.

3 years ago was the turning point from good to great, and much like this year I'm sure you would have heard UF, Georgia, and Tennessee fans talking about lowly ole USC.

Obviously we follow MSU closely and know the ins and outs of the program. The success we're enjoying now was expected by us. No one else. Historically we're bad, and until we kick UT's and everyone else's *** and prove them otherwise, we're still bad.

Of all the "elite" schools, however, UT can shut the hell up. They're bad and have been bad for the past 7 years it feels like. Their fans are smoking crack, but like I said, I get where they're coming from.

I poked around Volnation and they think our best player is a 6'2" TE named Malcolm Mitchell who wears #32 that is a rSo that missed the first part of the season but played against UK last week after recovering from a pec tear. As far as they're concerned Croom is still our coach.
 
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