Just my thoughts and opinions. Ultimately I feel the real race is to see who will form the buffer conference(s) between the tier 1 of BIG10/SEC and the tier 3 of most of the current G5 teams. At least one of the current P5 conferences will die completely or be relegated to the G5 crowd.
SEC: Clearly in the driver's seat and has their pick of anyone outside a few Big 10 schools. Likely they are not adding anyone unless it's Clemson, FSU, or ND. And they know they can have them at any time, so I doubt they'll rush. Clemson and FSU may come crawling to them however.
Big10: Second only to the SEC and in a pretty good spot. They know they can likely have whatever mid tier team they want whenever, so doubt they'll be keen on anyone left in the BIG12 until they are out of other big moves. Only move that matches what the SEC just did would be ND or raiding the best of the PAC12. Clemson and FSU are possibilities as well, but the SEC has the inside track on those schools.
ND: Very valuable program financially and it's laughable that they'd join the ACC. Only way that would happen is if they work out a deal better than joining the SEC or (more likely) the BIG10. Such a deal wouldn't really benefit the other ACC schools financially and they'd be at the mercy of their Irish overlords. Now it's possible the ACC bends over and lifts the sack for ND since they took over for the Big East in being ND's *****. As the SEC and the BIG10 consolidate power, it is feasible that those conferences pressure ND by pretty much blacklisting them from their schedule. However that is years down the road and current admin of ND will milk the independent money as long as they can. Ultimately they will have their choice of conference to join which will likely be BIG10 or SEC.
PAC12: Interesting spot. They are just like the BIG12 and ACC where a few programs at the top make the conference. Those are at risk of predation from the BIG10 and even the SEC, but geography does help the PAC12 here. Adding BIG12 teams does not change this fact. However BYU and some Big XII teams does buffer them from being AAC status if a BIG10 raid happens. It also protects against one of the BIG12's possible plays which is in their section below.
ACC: Frankly, little options. Try to get ND in is the only big move. Pray in vain for FSU and Clemson to stay is not a great plan. So their best move is to undercut the BIG 12 by offering a lifeline to BIG 12 schools they like best in the immediate term and/or grab Cincinnati and UCF pre-emptively.
BIG12: Any team that can get to the PAC12, BIG10, SEC, or ACC likely should. Any other move would be stupid, especially in the immediate term. The BIG12 as a conference only has one option and that is keep the current gang together in order to recoup money from UT and OU. Then add 4 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF being the best options. Don't know about who the 4th spot would be. This is the only shot of the BIG12 being more than just a lame duck waiting to die. Making common cause with the PAC12 helps. It also positions itself to pick over the scraps of either the PAC12 or ACC when those conferences eventually get poached. Dream scenario to be sure, but the conference could get the 3 best remaining PAC 12 schools and 3 best remaining ACC schools. Either way, the conference will be geographically situated to take schools from either direction.
PAC12/ACC: The last thought I have ties into the idea of the BIG12 being geographically positioned for a nationwide footprint and possibly being attractive to PAC12 and ACC teams post the inevitable BIG10/SEC raid of those conferences' best teams. The ACC and PAC12 could make common cause to try to split up the BIG12. This helps keeps both conferences from G5 status and keeps more schools relevant. Although it will dilute the already leaned out recruiting pool as the BIG10 and SEC concentrate the talent for their schools. But the 2 could do an east/west split of the best available tier 2 schools that the BIG10 and SEC didn't want.
SEC: Clearly in the driver's seat and has their pick of anyone outside a few Big 10 schools. Likely they are not adding anyone unless it's Clemson, FSU, or ND. And they know they can have them at any time, so I doubt they'll rush. Clemson and FSU may come crawling to them however.
Big10: Second only to the SEC and in a pretty good spot. They know they can likely have whatever mid tier team they want whenever, so doubt they'll be keen on anyone left in the BIG12 until they are out of other big moves. Only move that matches what the SEC just did would be ND or raiding the best of the PAC12. Clemson and FSU are possibilities as well, but the SEC has the inside track on those schools.
ND: Very valuable program financially and it's laughable that they'd join the ACC. Only way that would happen is if they work out a deal better than joining the SEC or (more likely) the BIG10. Such a deal wouldn't really benefit the other ACC schools financially and they'd be at the mercy of their Irish overlords. Now it's possible the ACC bends over and lifts the sack for ND since they took over for the Big East in being ND's *****. As the SEC and the BIG10 consolidate power, it is feasible that those conferences pressure ND by pretty much blacklisting them from their schedule. However that is years down the road and current admin of ND will milk the independent money as long as they can. Ultimately they will have their choice of conference to join which will likely be BIG10 or SEC.
PAC12: Interesting spot. They are just like the BIG12 and ACC where a few programs at the top make the conference. Those are at risk of predation from the BIG10 and even the SEC, but geography does help the PAC12 here. Adding BIG12 teams does not change this fact. However BYU and some Big XII teams does buffer them from being AAC status if a BIG10 raid happens. It also protects against one of the BIG12's possible plays which is in their section below.
ACC: Frankly, little options. Try to get ND in is the only big move. Pray in vain for FSU and Clemson to stay is not a great plan. So their best move is to undercut the BIG 12 by offering a lifeline to BIG 12 schools they like best in the immediate term and/or grab Cincinnati and UCF pre-emptively.
BIG12: Any team that can get to the PAC12, BIG10, SEC, or ACC likely should. Any other move would be stupid, especially in the immediate term. The BIG12 as a conference only has one option and that is keep the current gang together in order to recoup money from UT and OU. Then add 4 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF being the best options. Don't know about who the 4th spot would be. This is the only shot of the BIG12 being more than just a lame duck waiting to die. Making common cause with the PAC12 helps. It also positions itself to pick over the scraps of either the PAC12 or ACC when those conferences eventually get poached. Dream scenario to be sure, but the conference could get the 3 best remaining PAC 12 schools and 3 best remaining ACC schools. Either way, the conference will be geographically situated to take schools from either direction.
PAC12/ACC: The last thought I have ties into the idea of the BIG12 being geographically positioned for a nationwide footprint and possibly being attractive to PAC12 and ACC teams post the inevitable BIG10/SEC raid of those conferences' best teams. The ACC and PAC12 could make common cause to try to split up the BIG12. This helps keeps both conferences from G5 status and keeps more schools relevant. Although it will dilute the already leaned out recruiting pool as the BIG10 and SEC concentrate the talent for their schools. But the 2 could do an east/west split of the best available tier 2 schools that the BIG10 and SEC didn't want.
