Connecticut Preview and Game Thread

ZinfanHeel

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Aug 30, 2025
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#1/#1 CONNECTICUT Huskies 36 – 0 (20-0 Big East, Reg. Season and Tournament Champ)
NCAA NET #1 (UNC #19); NCAA WAB #4 (UNC 15); SOS (NCAA) #45 (UNC 31)
Massey Rating 1, (UNC 14); RPI 4 (Nolan) (UNC 15); Torvik 1 (UNC 16)

The identity of #15/#15 Carolina’s next opponent in the Sweet 16 is none other than UConn. It is exactly what was expected when the brackets were revealed. It is always the fate of the 4/5 seeds, which is why some favor a 6 seed even though a 4 seed gets to host. If the NCAA follows its own guidelines, Carolina as a #4 seed would be the lowest ranked of the 4-seeds. The others, with their AP rank and NET are Minnesota (18, 9), West Virginia (11,18) and Oklahoma (10,10). It would seem from this that the seedings are fair.

Our game tomorrow is at the 14,000 seat Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. I have a pair of sweat sox from Dickies. The Huskies are favored by 17 (Massey) by 17 (Nolan) and by Torvik 19.

UNC is 5 - 9 all time with UConn. Until 2007, the record stood at 5-2 for UNC. Since then, it has been all UConn, as they have won seven in a row. 2024’s game, played at the Mohegan Sun Arena in CT, was a 76-64 win by the Huskies, who used just 8 players. Maria Gakdeng had a double-double for UNC with 14 and 13. The game had been tied 36-36 at the half. The 2025 game had UConn winning 69-58 at Greensboro. Indya Nivar had 15 points and Ciera Toomey 10. Geno Auriemma contacted Coach Banghart to suggest their home-and-away series be resurrected. Coach CB, who does not shy away from a challenge, agreed.

It is interesting that UConn thinks the record is 9-4, as they do not count the game played in Jan 1980, a game won by UNC by 33 points 84-51. Wonder why they don’t count it.

Azzi Fudd did not play in either of the last two games. She suffered a serious knee injury (ACL) two games into the 2024 season, and did not return until the 4th game of 2025, just missing the UNC game. Who did not miss either game was Paige Bueckers, who had 29 and 29 points.

UConn has gone 36-0 this year. A recount of all 36 games is not necessary; they easily defeated all comers including ACC members Louisville, FSU, and Notre Dame as well as ranked teams such as #6 Michigan, #16 USC, #11 Iowa, and #15 Tennessee.

For most of the season, UConn has kept a starting lineup of 5-11 GS G Fudd (17.8/2.6); Sarah Strong, a 6-2 sophomore F (18.4/7.5); Ashlynn Shade, a 5-10 junior G (7.9/3.5); KK Arnold, a 5-9 junior G (7.3/2.2) and Serah Williams, a 6-4 senior F (7.0/4.4) who was a three year starter for Wisconsin. All of these were McDonald’s AAs (UConn has nine total) except Williams, who’s Canadian. KK Arnold leads in assists.

Unlike many past Husky teams, this one has depth: nine players average over 10 minutes per game. They also shoot threes, led by Azzi Fudd (45.4% on 113/249), Sarah Strong (41.9% on 57/186), and Ashlyn Shade (34.3% on 47 of 137). If you’re interested, Azzi Fudd is named for former Stanford great Jennifer Azzi. Of further interest is that Sarah Strong has just been named USBWA National Player of the Year. In addition to being UConn’s leading scorer and rebounder, she also leads the team in steals and blocks.

Other players may appear. They may include Freshman Blanca Quiñonez, a 6-2 F from Ecuador who averages 10.4 ppg; Jana El Alfy, a 6-5 RSo C from Egypt (4.2 ppg); Allie Ziebel, a 6-0 sophomore G (7.7 ppg but another three point threat at 41.7% on 58 of 139) and Kayleigh Heckel, a 5-9 sophomore G (7.1 ppg).

Fans will certainly have seen the results of UConn’s most recent game, their second round match with Syracuse. The Huskies totally crushed the Orange, turning them into juice with a first half score of 65-12. It may be of some comfort to the ‘Cuse that they held the Husky reserves to an even 33-33 score in the second half.

If this Husky team has any weakness it is hard to see what it might be. If Carolina is to compete, they will need a near-perfect outing. That would mean a FG percentage nearing 50%, including 35-40% in threes (and not the pathetic 5.6% Syracuse shot), no more than 10 turnovers and keep the rebounding within 5 boards or so in margin.

I have said before that making the Sweet Sixteen is no small accomplishment, since it would rank among the top 4.4% of all D-1 women’s programs. Of course, no team wants to be humiliated as Syracuse was, or for that matter as UNC was in January 2012, when they lost to UConn in Storrs by 51 points (35-86); still the worst loss in program history and one that prompted Coach Sylvia Hatchell to decide that there would be no more home-and-away with the Huskies – ever. And, so there were not during the rest of her tenure.

The coaching situation at UConn is well known by all. For the last 41 years, it has been Luigi “Geno” Auriemma, with a record of 1,286 – 165 (88.6%) and 11 NCAA Championships. He is a member of both the Naismith and WB Halls of Fame. His associate HC is Chris Dailey, who has been at UConn for the entire Auriemma reign.

If tomorrow turns out as the prophets predict our last game this season, it should be remembered that this was a pretty successful season, all things considered. UNC won 28 games. In the ACC that doesn’t happen unless you have quality on the court and quality on the sideline. UNC had both. They finished third in conference, earning a double bye, and were given a hosting slot in the NCAA. They reached the Sweet Sixteen. If we lose, let’s try to not have any nonsense along the “we need a new coach” line. It’s just annoying.

Game time is Friday 5 PM and ESPN will carry the game nationally. There will be a radio link from GoHeels with Matt Krause doing the play-by.
 

3397char

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Jun 30, 2025
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The line for this game remains at +27.5 depending on the book. I don't care about betting, not my thing, but this seems high. Especially because UNC is a defensive-minded team. We have not conceded 80 points this year. With an O/U of 131.5, that means they predict 80 to 52 score.
Our worst losses this year were 18 to UCLA, 18 to TX, and 23 to ND. The other 4 losses were single digits.

UConn's closest scoring margins in games this year:

  1. #6 Mich: 3 pts
  2. #11 Louisville 13 pts (first game of the year)
  3. #35 nova: 14
  4. #66 Marquette: 15
  5. #10 Iowa: 26
  6. #22 USC: 28
  7. #23 Tenn: 30
  8. #15 Ohio St: 32
  9. FSU: 32
  10. Butler: 32
  11. Georgetown: 32
  12. #67 USF: 34
  13. #66 Marquette: 36
  14. #63 Seton Hall: 36
  15. St John's: 36
  16. #21 ND: 38
  17. UTSA: 38
  18. #35 Nova: 39
Everyone else was over 40, with their last game vs #39 cuse a 53 pt margin

27.5 certainly could happen. they did that to three ranked teams above. But I think the computer lines that Zin reported above are more accurate. 17 pt to 19 pt range.

The biggest X factor to me of a blowout potential will be protecting and advancing the ball. Cuse turned the ball over again and again. They had around 15 turnovers in the first half. UConn leads the nation with a whopping 15.6 steals per game. That is how you create blowouts.

UNC has had difficulty with turnovers in our worst losses. We had 22 turnovers vs ND, with 7 steals by Hidalgo. And 20 TOs vs TX. We have had multiple games where we did not handle the press well, including the ACCT loss to Louisville. This team is not particularly good at ball handling vs pressure with Kelly out. If we can match UConn in turnover margin then I think this game will be respectable.

With that said, there is very little chance we will win this game. ESPN's matchup predictor gives us a 6% win probability. Hionestly that seems a little high, but not far off.
 

Jriv23

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Jul 31, 2025
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Thanks Zin. I agree if we should lose, I do not want to see any nonsense line about replacing the coach either. That would show the true colors of some folks who just want to hate. This program is on the rise and you can see it. Getting Kate H to sign and come is a huge accomplishment. In some publications she is the number 1 ranked player in the 2027 class. When was the last time that we were able to sign the number 1 player to come to UNC. It has been a long time in my book. Ivory Latta might have been the number 1 player when she came out of high school. I think she was averaging like 44 points a game or something close to that.
 

Carolina151

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Jul 30, 2024
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It will be interesting to see what we choose to do. Do we…..

1) play fast and try to get out in transition which will in turn lead to more TOs and them playing at their normal pace

or

2) Slow the game down into the half-court and take the air out of the ball.

nobody in America thinks we can compete much less win. I’d favor option 2. Play it by media TO. Get a shot close to the buzzer, go for OR, and drain the clock. It should limit live-ball TOs and makes UCONN play in the half-court.
 
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Carolina151

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Jul 30, 2024
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It’s US. Play us for 40-minutes and play for the name on the front and see where the pieces fall.

My keys to be competitive:
-take the air out of the ball and play in the half-court
-14 made 3s or more (14 3s, 10 2s, and 10 FTs give you 72 points)
-4+ Heels have to hit a 3
-UCONN has an off-shooting night and makes less than 8 3s
-even to -5 on the boards
-fewer than 7 live-ball TOs
-stay out of foul trouble (playing in the half court will help)
 

Mtns2Sea

Junior
Aug 7, 2025
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Thanks for the great write up, Zin! It's been a fun season and you are appreciated for all that you do to add to that fun! Let's see what CB has up her sleeve for tomorrow. We've got our coach; no need for a new one. Go Heels!
 
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tarboy

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Our Tar Heel women seem to play their best when they play fast. Take the first open shot by a
good shooter. Run the court, play in rhythm. Like C151 said we have 2 options.

Either way we have to value the ball, play great defense, rebound and make shots.

UConn is the @1 seed for a reason.

Whatever we do I hope we play good. Let's Go Tar Heel WBB.

Play Smart, Play Hard,,Play Together and have Fun. I am proud of this team.
 
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Mtns2Sea

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Aug 7, 2025
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Here's a link to the NCAA pre-game presser. CB is first; followed by Indiya and Lanie at around the 14:40 mark. I continue to be impressed by how well our players present and articulate in these press conferences. They seem to have a clear understanding of the task at hand today as well as bringing in some learning from past games with UConn.



Go Heels!!
 

tarboy

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I am so proud of Coach CB and these girls. They are such great representative's of our University.

They are so well spoken. Coach CB has done such a wonderful job of building this team with girls
of great character who can all really play great Basketball. Go Tar Heel Women!
 

3397char

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Jun 30, 2025
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Here's a link to the NCAA pre-game presser. CB is first; followed by Indiya and Lanie at around the 14:40 mark. I continue to be impressed by how well our players present and articulate in these press conferences. They seem to have a clear understanding of the task at hand today as well as bringing in some learning from past games with UConn.



Go Heels!!

I think smart recruits tend to gravitate towards brainy coaches (and vice-versa). Not every recruit is going to vibe with CB's particular analytical personality and CB is probably going to seek out very coachable players with a head on their shoulders.

The opposite would be a Kim Mulkey who likes players she can shout down and are thus the players who will vibe with her are young women who are comfortable being surrounded by chaos and a dog-eat-dog atmosphere. If you are comfortable in chaos, then you probably grew up with chaos and that will show to a certain degree in how you carry yourself.

Obviously both can be successful. But man, I really prefer our approach, assuming it works.
 

2-6 Cumberland

Freshman
Aug 18, 2022
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Seems we need Fudd or Strong to have bad shooting nights and we shoot lights out. Any case we can't have multiple empty possessions. We have to stay within 10 in the first half and fight like H the rest. Hard part is the supporting cast can hurt you if the big two doesn't. You have to score when you have the ball. There is only one ball and we have to score when we have it.
 

kjcooper

Junior
Nov 26, 2009
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Well hopefully we play well. and as mentioned numerous time if SS ever want to transfer maybe she will consider UNC, even though the price would probably be too high to afford her.
 

CadeShoemaker

Junior
Staff member
Jun 29, 2025
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Interesting note from UNC game notes before we get underway:

"The only other time UNC and UConn have played each other in the NCAA Tournament was in 1994, when the Tar Heels knocked off the top-ranked Huskies 81-69 en route to their national title."
 

CadeShoemaker

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Jun 29, 2025
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Maybe a little bit of Sweet 16 nerves, but both teams a combined 5-21 to start with UNC missing some gimmes at the rim already.

Banghart's timeout may serve to settle the Tar Heels, but they need to take advantage of UConn's slow start.
 

kjcooper

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Nov 26, 2009
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No doubt easy shot being missed, they had an opportunity to open up a double digit lead in the opening minutes, but turnovers and failure to finish at the rim. LG needs to settle down, trying to do too much in my opinion, and Toomey seems to be intimidated.
 

3397char

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UConn starting to get some live ball turnovers for runouts to offset their tepid shooting and our solid half court defense. Need to clean that up,

GREAT rundown from Nivar to erase the 3rd consecutive easy UConn layup
 
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