Current chance of avoiding a losing reg season : ~15%

[S.B. Crumb]

According to current Massey game probabilities, which seem pretty accurate, if not outright generous:

OPP RANK WIN PROB PF PA
Maryland 81 55% 34 31

@Army 135 72% 35 28

Nebraska 69 39% 35 38

@Michigan 17 6% 14 36

All the scenarios getting to 6+ with Michigan add up to only a couple of % points because a UM victory is so unlikely. The bulk of the 6+ win prob comes from losing to UM and then winning out:

.94 * .39. * .72 * .55 = .15

 

[delaynomore]

 

[derleider]

According to current Massey game probabilities, which seem pretty accurate, if not outright generous:

OPP RANK WIN PROB PF PA
Maryland 81 55% 34 31

@Army 135 72% 35 28

Nebraska 69 39% 35 38

@Michigan 17 6% 14 36

All the scenarios getting to 6+ with Michigan add up to only a couple of % points because a UM victory is so unlikely. The bulk of the 6+ win prob comes from losing to UM and then winning out:

.94 * .39. * .72 * .55 = .15

Yeah - thats where I pegged it last week.

 

[Blitz8RU]

With this team, I think we beat Army... and that's it. 4-8(1-7)

 

[RUich]

I know Army is not a good team, but they have done a lot better than we have in avoiding blowouts. Our common foe, PSU, they did far better than us in staying in the game.
Beating either Army or Navy requires discipline on the defense. Do we have that?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

make it 7.5% if we are a 50% in the bowl game