National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt (lock)
2. North Carolina (lock)
3. LSU (lock)
4. Virginia (lock)
5. Oregon State (lock)
6. Cal State Fullerton (lock)
7. Florida State (dropped first game to Clemson. NC State waiting in wings)
8. Oregon (has four games with Oregon State this weekend)
On the Bubble for National Seed
North Carolina State (RPI of 9, lost series vs FSU, vs. Duke this weekend)
Louisville (RPI up to 16, on 14 game winning streak, 44-10)
Other Hosts
Indiana (lock)
UCLA (lock)
Clemson (one more win vs, FSU and they lock)
Arizona State (least impressive host IMO, but haven't done anything to lose it. vs. Arizona this week)
Mississippi State (one more win vs. USC and they lock it up)
Kansas State (win series vs. Oklahoma and they lock)
On the Bubble
South Carolina (need to win final two vs. MSU to get spot)
South Alabama (need to win series vs. Troy and get help from Oklahoma/FSU)
Arkansas (loss to Auburn may be too much to overcome, another one knocks them out)
Here's the skinny,
One more win gives us 40 wins against what is rated as the 5th toughest schedule in the country. Unless the committee screws us in favor of giving South Alabama a regional, I think one more will do it. Two more and I don't think they could deny us in any way.
Clemson has played their way into a 5th ACC host. Beating FSU last night puts them one win away. If both Clemson and MSU win tonight, I think that knocks South Carolina out. USCe would have a natural place to be a 2 seed at the Tater Farm.
Arizona State isn't a lock yet. They have Arizona and Washington left. They need to go 4-2 or better to feel safe. If the Fightin' Byrnes take the series this weekend, they would be in serious bubble territory with a 34-17 record.
Kansas State needs to take the series against Oklahoma. Doing so would give them the Big 12 title and a Top 20 RPI. That is deserving as a host site.
South Carolina probably has to have one of the following happen: (1) Take the final 2 games at MSU or (2) Take 1 game from MSU and have Florida State take the final 2 from Clemson, then outperform them in conference tournament play. Playing in the last three national championship series (and winning two) isn't going to hurt their chances to host if its close.
South Alabama. In many years they would be a lock to host. If they were located in the Midwest or the Northeast, they would be a lock to host. The Jaguars have Troy this weekend, a Top 50 team that they could sweep. Here are the scenarios that help USA's case: (1) Oklahoma taking the series against K-State. (2) MSU taking the series vs. USC + FSU taking the series against Clemson. (3) Arizona State faltering at the end of their season.
Arkansas. Most thought they needed to sweep Auburn and get into the Top 40 of the RPI. Another loss to Auburn and they are done, but if they win 2 of 3 and win a couple in the SEC Tournament, they could benefit from a third place finish in the SEC, especially if there isn't a Big 12 host.
1. Vanderbilt (lock)
2. North Carolina (lock)
3. LSU (lock)
4. Virginia (lock)
5. Oregon State (lock)
6. Cal State Fullerton (lock)
7. Florida State (dropped first game to Clemson. NC State waiting in wings)
8. Oregon (has four games with Oregon State this weekend)
On the Bubble for National Seed
North Carolina State (RPI of 9, lost series vs FSU, vs. Duke this weekend)
Louisville (RPI up to 16, on 14 game winning streak, 44-10)
Other Hosts
Indiana (lock)
UCLA (lock)
Clemson (one more win vs, FSU and they lock)
Arizona State (least impressive host IMO, but haven't done anything to lose it. vs. Arizona this week)
Mississippi State (one more win vs. USC and they lock it up)
Kansas State (win series vs. Oklahoma and they lock)
On the Bubble
South Carolina (need to win final two vs. MSU to get spot)
South Alabama (need to win series vs. Troy and get help from Oklahoma/FSU)
Arkansas (loss to Auburn may be too much to overcome, another one knocks them out)
Here's the skinny,
One more win gives us 40 wins against what is rated as the 5th toughest schedule in the country. Unless the committee screws us in favor of giving South Alabama a regional, I think one more will do it. Two more and I don't think they could deny us in any way.
Clemson has played their way into a 5th ACC host. Beating FSU last night puts them one win away. If both Clemson and MSU win tonight, I think that knocks South Carolina out. USCe would have a natural place to be a 2 seed at the Tater Farm.
Arizona State isn't a lock yet. They have Arizona and Washington left. They need to go 4-2 or better to feel safe. If the Fightin' Byrnes take the series this weekend, they would be in serious bubble territory with a 34-17 record.
Kansas State needs to take the series against Oklahoma. Doing so would give them the Big 12 title and a Top 20 RPI. That is deserving as a host site.
South Carolina probably has to have one of the following happen: (1) Take the final 2 games at MSU or (2) Take 1 game from MSU and have Florida State take the final 2 from Clemson, then outperform them in conference tournament play. Playing in the last three national championship series (and winning two) isn't going to hurt their chances to host if its close.
South Alabama. In many years they would be a lock to host. If they were located in the Midwest or the Northeast, they would be a lock to host. The Jaguars have Troy this weekend, a Top 50 team that they could sweep. Here are the scenarios that help USA's case: (1) Oklahoma taking the series against K-State. (2) MSU taking the series vs. USC + FSU taking the series against Clemson. (3) Arizona State faltering at the end of their season.
Arkansas. Most thought they needed to sweep Auburn and get into the Top 40 of the RPI. Another loss to Auburn and they are done, but if they win 2 of 3 and win a couple in the SEC Tournament, they could benefit from a third place finish in the SEC, especially if there isn't a Big 12 host.
