Group C is up for grabs, but who's got the inside track? Here's a quick
run through the scenarios by which the Yanks can advance to the knockout
stages.
Slovenia is in the driver's seat in group C, with 4 points. The US and
England each have 2, and Algeria 1. This puts the USA in control of
their own destiny, because
If the US wins, they're through to the round of 16. A win would give us 5
points in the group. With England and Slovenia playing each other,
there's no way both could finish with more points.
If the US loses, they're out. Ceding three points to Algeria lets them
leapfrog us, and we're unable to catch Slovenia, no matter what they do
in their final game.
The US could also draw their final game (they've shown themselves quite
proficient at that). That's where things get complicated.
If the US draws, and England beats Slovenia, they're out. England would
finish with 5, Slovenia with 4, and the USMNT with 3.
If the US draws, and Slovenia beats England, they're through to the
round of 16. Slovenia would win the group with 7, the US with 3, and
England and Algeria with 2 apiece.
If the US draws, and Slovenia and England draw, it comes down to
tiebreakers. Slovenia would win the group with 5, and England and
America would be tied with 3. Here are the variables:
•The first tiebreaker is goal differential. The US and England would
have tied all three matches, so we move on.
•The second tiebreaker is goals scored. After two games, the US has
scored 3, while England has scored 1. That looks good for the US, as
long as the England/Slovenia match isn't high-scoring. It's possible for
England and Slovenia to finish 3-3, and the US/Algeria to finish 0-0.
In that case England would move on. If England/Slovenia finished, say,
2-2 and the US plays a scoreless draw, we move on to the next
tiebreaker.
•The third tiebreaker is points obtained in head-to-head matches. The US
and England tied, so we move on.
•The fourth tiebreaker is goal differential in head-to-head matches.
Again, a tie.
•The fifth tiebreaker is goals scored head-to-head. That's one apiece,
so we move on.
If the US and England are still tied after all the tiebreakers, FIFA
draws lots to determine who moves on. Yes, at the most important
sporting event in the world, a coin will be flipped to decide the
winner.