to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
I went game-by-game through your bracket and used common upset indicators used by analytics models (KenPom-style efficiency gaps, 12-5 upset history, defensive efficiency, tempo mismatch, and tournament experience). I also included a few bold upsets, because historically about 10–12 upsets happen in Round 1 of NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Scores are realistic tournament-style (lower pace, tighter defense).
9 TCU 71 – Ohio State 68
12 Northern Iowa 69 – St. John’s 65
upset
4 Kansas 78 – Cal Baptist 63
11 South Florida 72 – Louisville 70
3 Michigan State 77 – North Dakota St 62
10 UCF 74 – UCLA 71
2 UConn 86 – Furman 64
4 Kansas 80 – Northern Iowa 70
3 Michigan State 73 – South Florida 66
2 UConn 75 – UCF 67
2 UConn 70 – Michigan State 66
East Champion: Duke
9 Iowa 75 – Clemson 72
12 McNeese 71 – Vanderbilt 67
4 Nebraska 79 – Troy 65
11 VCU 68 – North Carolina 66
3 Illinois 82 – Penn 63
10 Texas A&M 74 – Saint Mary’s 70
2 Houston 81 – Idaho 55
4 Nebraska 75 – McNeese 68
3 Illinois 70 – VCU 65
2 Houston 69 – Texas A&M 63
2 Houston 66 – Illinois 62
South Champion: Houston
9 Utah State 72 – Villanova 69
12 High Point 70 – Wisconsin 68
4 Arkansas 77 – Hawaii 64
11 NC State 74 – BYU 72
3 Gonzaga 83 – Kennesaw St 60
10 Missouri 75 – Miami 71
2 Purdue 86 – Queens 62
4 Arkansas 74 – High Point 65
3 Gonzaga 72 – NC State 66
2 Purdue 80 – Missouri 71
2 Purdue 73 – Gonzaga 70
West Champion: Purdue
8 Georgia 73 – Saint Louis 70
12 Akron 69 – Texas Tech 66
4 Alabama 85 – Hofstra 63
6 Tennessee 74 – SMU/Miami OH 65
3 Virginia 66 – Wright St 58
7 Kentucky 82 – Santa Clara 70
2 Iowa State 79 – Tennessee St 61
4 Alabama 81 – Akron 68
3 Virginia 63 – Tennessee 60
7 Kentucky 75 – Iowa State 72

7 Kentucky 71 – Virginia 66
Midwest Champion: Kentucky
Kentucky 77 – Duke 73
Champion: Kentucky
Why this model likes them:
Final Four
Champion: Kentucky
If you want, I can also show you:
to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
I went game-by-game through your bracket and used common upset indicators used by analytics models (KenPom-style efficiency gaps, 12-5 upset history, defensive efficiency, tempo mismatch, and tournament experience). I also included a few bold upsets, because historically about 10–12 upsets happen in Round 1 of NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Scores are realistic tournament-style (lower pace, tighter defense).
EAST REGION
Round of 64
1 Duke 82 – Siena 609 TCU 71 – Ohio State 68
12 Northern Iowa 69 – St. John’s 65
4 Kansas 78 – Cal Baptist 63
11 South Florida 72 – Louisville 70
3 Michigan State 77 – North Dakota St 62
10 UCF 74 – UCLA 71
2 UConn 86 – Furman 64
Round of 32
1 Duke 76 – TCU 694 Kansas 80 – Northern Iowa 70
3 Michigan State 73 – South Florida 66
2 UConn 75 – UCF 67
Sweet 16
1 Duke 74 – Kansas 722 UConn 70 – Michigan State 66
Elite Eight
1 Duke 77 – UConn 73East Champion: Duke
SOUTH REGION
Round of 64
1 Florida 84 – Lehigh/PVAMU 619 Iowa 75 – Clemson 72
12 McNeese 71 – Vanderbilt 67
4 Nebraska 79 – Troy 65
11 VCU 68 – North Carolina 66
3 Illinois 82 – Penn 63
10 Texas A&M 74 – Saint Mary’s 70
2 Houston 81 – Idaho 55
Round of 32
1 Florida 73 – Iowa 704 Nebraska 75 – McNeese 68
3 Illinois 70 – VCU 65
2 Houston 69 – Texas A&M 63
Sweet 16
1 Florida 71 – Nebraska 672 Houston 66 – Illinois 62
Elite Eight
2 Houston 64 – Florida 61South Champion: Houston
WEST REGION
Round of 64
1 Arizona 88 – Long Island 599 Utah State 72 – Villanova 69
12 High Point 70 – Wisconsin 68
4 Arkansas 77 – Hawaii 64
11 NC State 74 – BYU 72
3 Gonzaga 83 – Kennesaw St 60
10 Missouri 75 – Miami 71
2 Purdue 86 – Queens 62
Round of 32
1 Arizona 79 – Utah State 704 Arkansas 74 – High Point 65
3 Gonzaga 72 – NC State 66
2 Purdue 80 – Missouri 71
Sweet 16
1 Arizona 77 – Arkansas 722 Purdue 73 – Gonzaga 70
Elite Eight
2 Purdue 71 – Arizona 69West Champion: Purdue
MIDWEST REGION
Round of 64
1 Michigan 81 – Howard/UMBC 608 Georgia 73 – Saint Louis 70
12 Akron 69 – Texas Tech 66
4 Alabama 85 – Hofstra 63
6 Tennessee 74 – SMU/Miami OH 65
3 Virginia 66 – Wright St 58
7 Kentucky 82 – Santa Clara 70
2 Iowa State 79 – Tennessee St 61
Round of 32
1 Michigan 72 – Georgia 674 Alabama 81 – Akron 68
3 Virginia 63 – Tennessee 60
7 Kentucky 75 – Iowa State 72
Sweet 16
4 Alabama 79 – Michigan 747 Kentucky 71 – Virginia 66
Elite Eight
7 Kentucky 76 – Alabama 73Midwest Champion: Kentucky
FINAL FOUR
(Indianapolis)Semifinal
Duke 74 – Houston 70Semifinal
Kentucky 78 – Purdue 74NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Champion: Kentucky
Why this model likes them:
- Elite rebounding + transition offense
- Tournament scoring guards
- Path avoids the top defensive teams until late
- Duke
- Houston
- Purdue
- Kentucky
If you want, I can also show you:
- The 10 most likely upset games (with probabilities)
- A “perfect bracket probability optimized” version
- Or a super bold chaos bracket that wins big pools.

