I operate out of superior knowledge and analytical abilities. When I make a bold move, I do so "knowing" that I'm going to be better off. I don't "risk" much of anything. Only an idiot would gamble like that. "Well, it can't be worse" has been said by many, many people who ended up in worse situations.
Here, the calculus is out of our hands. Kraft & Co. may have a great alternative set up. Or they may not. Things may work out. Or they may not. All we can do is look at what we "know" from the outside and speculate. We know we, overall, had a very good thing (that definitely hit a rough spot). We may end up with a better thing. Or we very well may not. Since the information is not known by us, and we are not making the decision, it's natural for a thinking person to be cautious in celebrating the unknown.
We didn't have a very good thing. So you are not operating from facts. You are operating from a risk adverse timid, afraid to lose (so you will lose) standpoint.
Here is the assessment:
Our objective is to win national championships so you align your strategies and tactics against this overarching objective.
Situation Assessment
Your current coach is 4-21 vs top ten teams and 1-18 versus top 5 teams. This means your current coach can't beat teams of equal or slightly better talent. Can't win big games.
Your current coach just lost two games in a row where he was a 20 plus point favorite. This has never been done before.
Your current coach lost the team as evidenced by their lack of effort and heart in the last two games.
Your current coach lost the support of the fan base and donors.
A reasonable person would evaluate this situation and conclude that a change needs to be made to the head coaching position in order to position Penn State to achieve its objective of winning national championships.
Risk Mitigation Plans
Conduct a thorough coaching search with clear metrics on what you are looking for. Vett candidates against these metrics such as confidence they can develop mentally tough teams that can execute in the clutch. Something Franklin's teams failed miserably at.
There is risk, of course there is risk. You make it seem like it is a certainty that we have made the wrong decision and we will spiral into decades of irrelevance. I disagree.