That us getting to sunday, whether we win or not in the title game, will get us in the NCAA Tourney? Georgia isnt solid, South Carolina is a bubble team that probably needs a win against us to solidify their bid, and then probably LSU who is very solid and a very good team. I think we end up on the outside looking in unless alot of bubble teams dont do well in their respective tournaments, but I think a solid run against SC and LSU and a competitive title game would give us a shot to sneak in. Any thoughts?
Does anyone on here think....
- Thread starter mstatefan88
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That us getting to sunday, whether we win or not in the title game, will get us in the NCAA Tourney? Georgia isnt solid, South Carolina is a bubble team that probably needs a win against us to solidify their bid, and then probably LSU who is very solid and a very good team. I think we end up on the outside looking in unless alot of bubble teams dont do well in their respective tournaments, but I think a solid run against SC and LSU and a competitive title game would give us a shot to sneak in. Any thoughts?
There are too many bubble teams ahead of us with much better resumes. Also, you have to imagine some other team that's either on the bubble or completely off at this point will also make a deep run in their conference tournament. It's either win 4 or NIT.
I think things would have to completely fall in place in the mid-major conferences. We would have to make it to the title game and lose a heart breaker or play an unreal game on national tv to possibly get that attention. The loses to Charlotte and San Diego are biting us in the ***. With those games, we would be 21-10 right now. Our RPI would be a heck of a lot better as well. The SEC record isn't whats keeping us out, it's the non-conference loses and how poorly those teams are performing. I don't think we'll make it unless we win the damn tourney.
Yeah, those Charlotte and San Diego losses at home really hurt us. I think not winning 1 of the games against either Wash St or Texas Tech in our tournament early in the year hurt as well. With the SEC as even as it has been this year in terms of record, you have to look at non conference success to distinguish between the teams, and I agree that right now our losses in non conference play are hurting us really bad.
I roughed out what our RPI would be if we'd won those 2 games and it looks like we'd be about #42, with a 20-10 record right now. Probably a fairly solid NCAA bid, unless we **** the bed against UGA on Thursday. Those 2 losses absolutely killed us.
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Edit: I screwed up my calculation. We'd actually only move up to about #61 if we'd won the Charlotte and San Diego games. They're still killing us though.
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Edit: I screwed up my calculation. We'd actually only move up to about #61 if we'd won the Charlotte and San Diego games. They're still killing us though.
It sucks that we lost those games. I was there for the Charlotte game and we actually played worse than the Auburn game. It was horrible. I had no clue at that time that we would finish SEC play with a 19-12 (9-7 SEC) record. It should have been better, though.
Well any way you hash it out, 2 losses at home against those 2 really killed us. Its a liitle like what people say in baseball. You cant win your division in April but you can lose it. Thats what happened here. We couldnt solidify a NCAA Tournament bid in December, but it looks like we lost it in December. Unless we get more solid in non conference play, I think this kind of stuff could happen almost every year. The reason our womens team is probably gonna go to the NCAA Tourney is because they took care of business in non conference play.
"Stans is just getting us ready to win another SEC West title." This seems to happen with Stans every year....
The loses to Texas tech and WSU aren't helping anything either... Stans can't win outside of the SEC.</p>
The loses to Texas tech and WSU aren't helping anything either... Stans can't win outside of the SEC.</p>
some of those losses were to much worse teams than who we beat in the SEC. We play San Diego or UNCC aGAIN, we would probably beat them. But as 8dog said, those losses are now killing us.
and because of a lousy preseason showing last year we had to play a #1 seed in the second round even though we had a freakin' 12-4 record in the SEC. ALL games do count if you are trying to have a shot at making a deep run in the tournament.
San Diego, Charlotte, Texas Tech, WSU, Cincy..
We might lose lose to Cincy if we played agian, since it was in Cincy...
For some reason we never can click early in the season and beat these non-conf foes. Is it that we are not playing well a a team early on, or is it that Stans is out of his SEC coaching element and can not game-plan against teams he has not faced before?
We might lose lose to Cincy if we played agian, since it was in Cincy...
For some reason we never can click early in the season and beat these non-conf foes. Is it that we are not playing well a a team early on, or is it that Stans is out of his SEC coaching element and can not game-plan against teams he has not faced before?
we could make it to Saturday and possibly be in the tournament if we had beaten UNCC and Whale's ******. That would put us at 23-11 if we lost on Saturday.
I think it would at least get us discussed as a legitimate possibility by the selection committee. Here are my reasons:
1) We would be on their mind since we won 3 games in 3 days and playing on the last day.
2) If we beat USC & LSU along the way, that would put us at 5-3 against the RPI top 50. Not many bubble teams can say that. (We would need USC, FL, and WKU to stay in the top 50),
3) We would have won 5 conference games in a row against mostly good competition.
4) We are above .500 in conference play and are a much different team then we were at the beginning of the season. It really depends on how the committee defines best team. (The best all season vs. the best now)
That being said, I don't think it would be enough to get us in, but you never know.
1) We would be on their mind since we won 3 games in 3 days and playing on the last day.
2) If we beat USC & LSU along the way, that would put us at 5-3 against the RPI top 50. Not many bubble teams can say that. (We would need USC, FL, and WKU to stay in the top 50),
3) We would have won 5 conference games in a row against mostly good competition.
4) We are above .500 in conference play and are a much different team then we were at the beginning of the season. It really depends on how the committee defines best team. (The best all season vs. the best now)
That being said, I don't think it would be enough to get us in, but you never know.
thinking about this earlier today, I realized that this team was *very* close to having a great record and heading to the NCAA's instead of the NIT.
Think about it:
3 extra points (1 in each game during regulation) against SD, LSU, and Bama and we're at 22-9, 11-5 SEC.
5 extra points against TT and Ole Miss and we're at 24-7, 12-4 SEC
6 extra against Tenn and it's 24-8, 13-3.
7 against Charlotts and it's 25-7, 13-3.
26 points away from an SEC title.
So while I don't think Stans is doing a terrible job, we'll have the talent and experience to contend for the title next season. I expect an NCAA bid, I expect a decent seeding (6 or higher), and I expect to contend for the SEC title.
Think about it:
3 extra points (1 in each game during regulation) against SD, LSU, and Bama and we're at 22-9, 11-5 SEC.
5 extra points against TT and Ole Miss and we're at 24-7, 12-4 SEC
6 extra against Tenn and it's 24-8, 13-3.
7 against Charlotts and it's 25-7, 13-3.
26 points away from an SEC title.
So while I don't think Stans is doing a terrible job, we'll have the talent and experience to contend for the title next season. I expect an NCAA bid, I expect a decent seeding (6 or higher), and I expect to contend for the SEC title.
Depends on which rpi rankings you use. Warren Nolan and collegerpi.com has as them at 50. The selection committee has their own formula, so it could be +- 3 spots or so. I do agree, it would be difficult for them to stay in the top 50, but its not out of the question since the RPI rankings have so many variables.8Dog said:
"1.4 Does the NCAA perform adjustments to the basic formula?8Dog said:
Yes. They normally have their own secret adjustments. Basically, it's a system of bonuses and penalties. Teams gain credits for beating top 50 RPI teams and for scheduling 50 percent of their non-conference games against top 50 opponents. Teams receive penalties for losing to non-Division I teams, or lossing to weak teams (150 or below) and for scheduling 50 percent of the non-conference schedule against weak teams. We also perform similar adjustments.
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Source: http://realtimerpi.com/faq.html</p>
It should be pretty similar but there are differences in each sites calculations. Hence the reason why our rpi is different between which sites you visit.
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but the basic formula is absolutely known.
If South Carolina is hovering around 50, I imagine they be out if they lose Friday.
"The actual RPI numbers as computed by the NCAA are released to the schools after the tournament. I personally haven't seen such a list and compared it to the unaltered lists such as computed by Palm, however Palm has and he has told me that he hasn't seen significant differences between the two. So whatever 'secret' adjustments which are being done, aren't significantly altering what is in reality a very poor and fundamentally flawed model. "
If South Carolina is hovering around 50, I imagine they be out if they lose Friday.
"The actual RPI numbers as computed by the NCAA are released to the schools after the tournament. I personally haven't seen such a list and compared it to the unaltered lists such as computed by Palm, however Palm has and he has told me that he hasn't seen significant differences between the two. So whatever 'secret' adjustments which are being done, aren't significantly altering what is in reality a very poor and fundamentally flawed model. "
We were a handful away from entering the SEC tournament undefeated. Even our loss to Vandy there was close....OT perhaps? I think the Xavier loss was by more points that all our other losses that year combined.