The line is not what the "experts" think the actual margin of victory will be-- it's the spread they give to entice the most people to bet the most money. They win by keeping the vig--the more that is bet, the more they win, though it's important to move the spread if too much money comes in for one team. If they can piss off State fans to plunk down more, or coax delusional Bear fans into thinking they are going to win, that's their goal. Of course, in-state betting will be dwarfed by national betting. I'm not really surprised at the line. State beat the spread 5 out of 10 games (there was no offical Vegas line for the JSU game) which is obviously about average. TSUNs "moral victories" still beat the spread. They ended up covering 9 out of 11 times this year, mostly because no one expected them to do anything. Even though they keep losing the games, by covering, they burned a lot of bettors who expected nothing from them. Vegas has "favored" them in the Egg Bowl mostly to lure people back into thinking the Bears might actually be competitive--whatever it takes to get the money moving. It will be interesting to see where the line goes from here. If it drops, no one is taking the bait, and the real money is coming in on MSU.
Don't Freak out about TSUN being favored by Vegas.
- Thread starter SkullCandy.sixpack
- Start date
All I know is...
..as a rule of thumb, whoever is favored in the Egg Bowl wins it (years like 2009 are an anomaly). Taking that into consideration, we probably have every right to freak out about the Vegas line.
..as a rule of thumb, whoever is favored in the Egg Bowl wins it (years like 2009 are an anomaly). Taking that into consideration, we probably have every right to freak out about the Vegas line.
Not so sure about that. I was told, by someone who gambles (admittedly I do not), that over 70% of the money so far was on us. Certainly one of you degenerates can confirm or provide a link where this can be verified.
I hope that's wrong because usually when visiting team has 70% money on them the home team rolls. Now if it gets to 85 % that's good for us. Trust me that's a system I play . It wins
Is the correct on why the line moves????
So Vegas opened up at a pick. Money started going to the Bears, therefore moving the line to -1 to -2 in favor of the bEARS. Are they trying to entice more money to be wagered on us? For instance, if the line were to continue escalating, they are trying to draw an equal amount of wagering back towards the Dawgs, which in turn would bring the line back down? That's how I understand it. Is this right?
So Vegas opened up at a pick. Money started going to the Bears, therefore moving the line to -1 to -2 in favor of the bEARS. Are they trying to entice more money to be wagered on us? For instance, if the line were to continue escalating, they are trying to draw an equal amount of wagering back towards the Dawgs, which in turn would bring the line back down? That's how I understand it. Is this right?
The line isn't what the score is supposed to reflect--it's to entice bettors. It doesn't directly reflect who Vegas thinks is going to win the game--only where they think they can win money.
Yes. Theoretically, the sports books want an equal amount placed on each side, and the more the better. When the money gets too heavy to one side, the line moves in an attempt to compensate for that and force more wagers on the other side. If this line continues to move higher on UM, it means that most of the money is continuing to be placed on UM.