its an extrapolation of its present position at a given time and moving it out in time.
The ones to watch are:
HWRF
GFDL
ECMWF (this one has been out ahead of the others on IKE)
BAMS
CGUN
Most of these models have been moving IKE consistenly S and W over time.
Here's the reliable ECMWF model for Sat.
EURO model http://www.ecmwf.int/prod...erministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090500!!/
The only thing that looks favorable is that the gulf waters have been upwelled by Gustav and Fay, therefore, a little cooler
STill, since Hanna is running the E coast, this will give the Gulf some time to warm up to bathwater conditions.
Rut roh raggy