#12/#14 DOOK BLUE DEVILS 21 - 7 (16 -1 ACC, 1st - Reg. Season Champion)
NCAA Net 9 (UNC 18); Massey Rating 10 (UNC 16); RPI 10 (Nolan) (UNC 24): Torvik 7 (UNC 16), NCAA WAB 13 (UNC 16)
#21/19 and 24-6 (13-4) UNC’s last regular season conference game is Sunday afternoon against dook at Carmichael. The teams have met 112 times and after a Carolina loss at Durham earlier this month the record stands dead even at 56-56. In the last 10 meetings it is 5-5 but overall dook is 16-32 in Chapel Hill. The last Blue Devil win at Carmichael was in 2020, 73-54. By an odd coincidence that game was also played on March 1st. Hopefully that is not an omen.
Whatever the history, Massey favors dook by 3; Torvik has dook by 2 but Nolan likes Carolina by 1.
In non-conference play, dook went 5-6 and were unranked in every poll. The opening game was against Baylor in Paris. The Bears won, 58-52. The dookies did play a tough schedule, ranked #5 by Nolan. Anyone interested can review the prediction for the Feb. 15 game that covers dook’s schedule up to that time. Just note that they worked themselves up from not rated to #12.
Since that 2/15 game dook played NCSU at Durham, winning 83-65. A visit to Clemson produced an unexpected loss, 51-53. Coach Banghart at her last radio show was asked if a review of the Clemson-dook game gave her any useful information, the answer being “yes”
Dook got back on track with an 80-52 home win over FSU that gave them the #1 seed in the ACC tournament and the “regular season” championship. UNC completes their schedule.
It should be noted that the website “goduke” carries a complete history of the series, all 112 games. That cannot be said for “goheels”. Once UNC had a quality Media Guide with 120 pages of valuable information. Why was that cancelled?
There is no substantial change in the dook starters: Toby Fournier, who is the leading scorer (18 ppg, currently #3 in the ACC) and who also leads in rebounds (8.3) and blocked shots (2.3/gm #2 ACC); Taina Mair (11.2/5.5) and leads in assists and steals; Ashlon Jackson, (11.6/3.5), a prolific outside shooter at 32.8% on 60 of 183; Delaney Thomas (10.2/6.1) is starter #4; and finishing the group is Riley Nelson, (9.6/3.3).
Dook will often go with just seven players, and off the bench we should see Jordan Wood (5.0/3.1) and Arianna Roberson, (8.7/ 6.0). If an eighth player is needed it will be true freshman Anna Wikstrom, (1.5 ppg).
Statistics do not show a lot. Defensively, dook and Carolina are close in most areas. The Devils lead the ACC in points allowed (55) with UNC #2 (59.4). Field goal defense UNC leads (.351) with dook #2 (.359). Defending the three dook leads at .245 with UNC again #2 at .256. Dook still shoots free throws even worse than Carolina: .722 (#14) vs. .743 (#11). Rebounding would slightly favor the Devils with dook’s rebound margin at 8.2 (#1) and UNC at 7.0 (#3).
Usually dook is known for defense, often holding teams to under 50 points, but this season their offensive numbers are better: 77.4 ppg (#3) while Carolina is at 71.8 (#7) Dook does not turn the ball over and the ATO and TOM are 1-3 in conference. UNC’s TOM has dropped into a negative number: -0.29. Cutting down on turnovers is a must for Sunday.
It might be noted also that dook does not rely on the 3-pointer as a major part of their offense and have attempted just 535 (179 made for 33.5%). Only four other teams have fewer attempts. Dook has no 40% shooters but six average 30% or better. No other team shoots the three as UNC does: 705 attempts, 256 made, 36.3%, #1 ACC.
Dook is still coached by Kara Lawson, who at Durham is 118-48 (62-28).
To be fair, several UNC players show in the top ACC categories: Nyla Harris is #12 in overall rebounding (7.3/gm) and Cierra Toomey is #21 (6.4/gm). Toomey is also #5 in blocked shots with 1.7/gm. Lanie Grant is #9 at 3p/gm: 2.2/gm. Indya Nivar is #9 in assists with 4.3/gm. Nivar is also #12 in A/TO (1.4) and #12 in steals (1.8/gm).
Dook is our designated “two-fer.” If you are interested, the others are:
Louisville – Notre Dame
Syracuse – BC
Virginia – Virginia Tech
NCSU – Wake Forest
Clemson – Georgia Tech
Cal – Stanford
Miami – Florida State
SMU – Pitt
SMU and Pitt are hardly rivals, except for seeing who can finish last, but there were no other logical pairings, so they got each other. We are told that these matchups are permanent so long as the conference membership does not change.
It is hard to believe the end of another ACC season is at hand. Thursday’s game against Virginia was a huge win – perhaps the biggest of the season from Carolina’s standpoint since it assured a top three finish and a double-bye in the ACCT.
As the #3 seed, UNC has a bye directly into the quarterfinals and will play next Friday. Who they will play is not yet decided. There are no fewer than five teams tied for 5th place with 11-6 records. One of those teams will finish 6th and likely will be UNC’s first opponent. UNC will know on Monday. If UNC advances, #2 Louisville will be the likely semifinal opponent.
Going into the final game, the results will not change the top seedings: dook is still going to be #1 and UNC #3. A win against dook in Carmichael is still important because (1) it avoids a sweep by UNC’s archenemy (2) As a Quad 1 win it will improve UNC’s chances for a NCAA host seed, and (3) a Carolina loss combined with a NCSU win (and they are playing Pitt who is given a 0.01% chance of winning) would give them a matching record at 13-5 and you can already hear the Mooing from Cow College: WE Finished THIRD! And then there is the fact that UNC hates dook and the thought of a home loss is unacceptable.
Wins against dook are never easy. Carolina will have to play with purpose and intensity. Against dook’s defense the Heels are unlikely to shoot 67% from three so other aspects, in particular defense, will be needed to carry the day.
Game time is 12 Noon Sunday. The game will be broadcast by ESPN. GoHeels will have the live audio with Matt Krause on the call.
NCAA Net 9 (UNC 18); Massey Rating 10 (UNC 16); RPI 10 (Nolan) (UNC 24): Torvik 7 (UNC 16), NCAA WAB 13 (UNC 16)
#21/19 and 24-6 (13-4) UNC’s last regular season conference game is Sunday afternoon against dook at Carmichael. The teams have met 112 times and after a Carolina loss at Durham earlier this month the record stands dead even at 56-56. In the last 10 meetings it is 5-5 but overall dook is 16-32 in Chapel Hill. The last Blue Devil win at Carmichael was in 2020, 73-54. By an odd coincidence that game was also played on March 1st. Hopefully that is not an omen.
Whatever the history, Massey favors dook by 3; Torvik has dook by 2 but Nolan likes Carolina by 1.
In non-conference play, dook went 5-6 and were unranked in every poll. The opening game was against Baylor in Paris. The Bears won, 58-52. The dookies did play a tough schedule, ranked #5 by Nolan. Anyone interested can review the prediction for the Feb. 15 game that covers dook’s schedule up to that time. Just note that they worked themselves up from not rated to #12.
Since that 2/15 game dook played NCSU at Durham, winning 83-65. A visit to Clemson produced an unexpected loss, 51-53. Coach Banghart at her last radio show was asked if a review of the Clemson-dook game gave her any useful information, the answer being “yes”
Dook got back on track with an 80-52 home win over FSU that gave them the #1 seed in the ACC tournament and the “regular season” championship. UNC completes their schedule.
It should be noted that the website “goduke” carries a complete history of the series, all 112 games. That cannot be said for “goheels”. Once UNC had a quality Media Guide with 120 pages of valuable information. Why was that cancelled?
There is no substantial change in the dook starters: Toby Fournier, who is the leading scorer (18 ppg, currently #3 in the ACC) and who also leads in rebounds (8.3) and blocked shots (2.3/gm #2 ACC); Taina Mair (11.2/5.5) and leads in assists and steals; Ashlon Jackson, (11.6/3.5), a prolific outside shooter at 32.8% on 60 of 183; Delaney Thomas (10.2/6.1) is starter #4; and finishing the group is Riley Nelson, (9.6/3.3).
Dook will often go with just seven players, and off the bench we should see Jordan Wood (5.0/3.1) and Arianna Roberson, (8.7/ 6.0). If an eighth player is needed it will be true freshman Anna Wikstrom, (1.5 ppg).
Statistics do not show a lot. Defensively, dook and Carolina are close in most areas. The Devils lead the ACC in points allowed (55) with UNC #2 (59.4). Field goal defense UNC leads (.351) with dook #2 (.359). Defending the three dook leads at .245 with UNC again #2 at .256. Dook still shoots free throws even worse than Carolina: .722 (#14) vs. .743 (#11). Rebounding would slightly favor the Devils with dook’s rebound margin at 8.2 (#1) and UNC at 7.0 (#3).
Usually dook is known for defense, often holding teams to under 50 points, but this season their offensive numbers are better: 77.4 ppg (#3) while Carolina is at 71.8 (#7) Dook does not turn the ball over and the ATO and TOM are 1-3 in conference. UNC’s TOM has dropped into a negative number: -0.29. Cutting down on turnovers is a must for Sunday.
It might be noted also that dook does not rely on the 3-pointer as a major part of their offense and have attempted just 535 (179 made for 33.5%). Only four other teams have fewer attempts. Dook has no 40% shooters but six average 30% or better. No other team shoots the three as UNC does: 705 attempts, 256 made, 36.3%, #1 ACC.
Dook is still coached by Kara Lawson, who at Durham is 118-48 (62-28).
To be fair, several UNC players show in the top ACC categories: Nyla Harris is #12 in overall rebounding (7.3/gm) and Cierra Toomey is #21 (6.4/gm). Toomey is also #5 in blocked shots with 1.7/gm. Lanie Grant is #9 at 3p/gm: 2.2/gm. Indya Nivar is #9 in assists with 4.3/gm. Nivar is also #12 in A/TO (1.4) and #12 in steals (1.8/gm).
Dook is our designated “two-fer.” If you are interested, the others are:
Louisville – Notre Dame
Syracuse – BC
Virginia – Virginia Tech
NCSU – Wake Forest
Clemson – Georgia Tech
Cal – Stanford
Miami – Florida State
SMU – Pitt
SMU and Pitt are hardly rivals, except for seeing who can finish last, but there were no other logical pairings, so they got each other. We are told that these matchups are permanent so long as the conference membership does not change.
It is hard to believe the end of another ACC season is at hand. Thursday’s game against Virginia was a huge win – perhaps the biggest of the season from Carolina’s standpoint since it assured a top three finish and a double-bye in the ACCT.
As the #3 seed, UNC has a bye directly into the quarterfinals and will play next Friday. Who they will play is not yet decided. There are no fewer than five teams tied for 5th place with 11-6 records. One of those teams will finish 6th and likely will be UNC’s first opponent. UNC will know on Monday. If UNC advances, #2 Louisville will be the likely semifinal opponent.
Going into the final game, the results will not change the top seedings: dook is still going to be #1 and UNC #3. A win against dook in Carmichael is still important because (1) it avoids a sweep by UNC’s archenemy (2) As a Quad 1 win it will improve UNC’s chances for a NCAA host seed, and (3) a Carolina loss combined with a NCSU win (and they are playing Pitt who is given a 0.01% chance of winning) would give them a matching record at 13-5 and you can already hear the Mooing from Cow College: WE Finished THIRD! And then there is the fact that UNC hates dook and the thought of a home loss is unacceptable.
Wins against dook are never easy. Carolina will have to play with purpose and intensity. Against dook’s defense the Heels are unlikely to shoot 67% from three so other aspects, in particular defense, will be needed to carry the day.
Game time is 12 Noon Sunday. The game will be broadcast by ESPN. GoHeels will have the live audio with Matt Krause on the call.
