Elon Preview and Game Thread

[ZinfanHeel]

ELON PHOENIX 1-0 (0-0 Coastal AA)
Last Season: 15-15 (9-10 CAA, 6th Place); Postseason 0-1 CAA Tournament
Massey 171 (UNC 18); NET 267 (UNC 200) (Nolan); Torvik 213 (UNC 14)

Thursday evening’s game is against the Elon Phoenix at Carmichael. Elon is 1-0 on the season, opening on the road with a win at East Tennessee State in Johnson City. That game turned into a nail-biter, going into overtime before Elon pulled out a 65-56 win.

Elon last season had a break-even season under the direction of Head Coach Charlotte Smith, winning 15 games and earning a 6 seed in the CAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Phoenix, for the second year in a row they were bounced out of the tournament in round 1. This time it was Towson 47-53 that punched Elon’s ticket home.

Elon had one exhibition game against Winston-Salem State. Elon won 70-59, getting 18 points from LaNae’ Corbett, a transfer from Hofstra.

UNC and Elon have played thirteen times; the Heels are 12-1 with the Phoenix including wins in the last eleven. The last meeting was in November 2023; a 68-39 Carolina win that saw a rare court appearance by Coach Kayla McPherson, who knocked down a pair of triples and had 5 assists in 15 minutes of action. Oh, what might have been!

UNC played Elon three times in the mid-seventies when the Heels program was first starting and were 2-1. After that UNC did not play them for 25 years. There has always been a disagreement over the record between the two schools. Elon thinks they are 2-12 with Carolina, because they count a win in February 1974, the year before UNC’s program was given varsity status. Elon’s program became a varsity sport in 1971; Kay Yow was Elon’s coach then.

For this game, #11 UNC is a 39-point favorite according to Massey; 28 points by Warren Nolan and 32 points by Bart Torvik.

Elon is of course in Elon NC, between Greensboro and Burlington. It is not named for a car manufacturer. “Elon” is a Hebrew word for “oak”. The school was established in 1889 as Elon College in what was then Boone’s Crossing. The town then took the name Elon, apparently for an Oak grove on campus that inspired the college. The school continued for many years as Elon College but became Elon University in 2001 – which incidentally is when the town officially became “Elon”.

The enrollment is 7,300 and it is a private school. Approximately 80% of Elon students are from out of state (60% female). Elon gets very high marks academically, both overall and as a value school. U. S. News ranks them very highly among all southern regional universities, and for the last five years has ranked them #1 in the nation for undergraduate teaching. Elon is a bit unusual in that they operate on a 4-1-4 academic year with a four-week-long “winter term” in January.

As noted, Elon opened play with a road game at ETSU. The starters for that game were LaNae’ Corbett, a 6-0 Fr G (6 points), Jayda Angel, a 5-8 So G (16 points/4 reb), Maraja Pass, a 5-4 Jr PG (1 point but 5 rebounds and 3 assists), Tyana Walker, a 5-10 RJr G (9 points/11 rebounds), and Quinzia Fulmore, a 6-3 GS F (6 points/9 rebounds and 3 blocks).

It is hard to tell much from a single game. We do know that of the 14 rostered players, eight are returnees. Two were starters last season and one, Maraja Pass, started the ETSU game. Jayda Angel was last season’s 6th Player and this year is a preseason All-CAA 1st Teamer. LaNae’ Corbett is a transfer from Hofstra, Fulmore a transfer from Towson, Walker a transfer from Howard.

On the bench are Kierra Morrow, a 5-10 So G; Samira Khalil, a 5-9 So G; Ruby Willard, a 5-10 Sr G, and Kamryn Doty, a 5-5 RSr PG. All are returnees and all played in the ETSU game and between them added 8 points. Laila Anderson, a 5-7 Sr G, was a starter in 2025 but this year may be assuming the 6th player role held by Angel last season. She had 7 points against the Bucs.

We do know that Elon took a hit when All-CAA guard Raven Preston (12.3/8.7) transferred to Wake Forest. UNC will deal with her later. Four other players entered the transfer portal; only one, Redshirt Freshman Ava Leroux, had significant minutes. Such is today’s NCAA world.

Recently there was a poll of the “Top 25” players in WBB, put together by some of the Gurus including Charlie Crème. The #1 player on their list is Sarah Strong (UConn), a name very familiar to UNC fans as she was heavily recruited by CB. Several ACC players made the list, including #3 Hannah Hidalgo (ND), #15 Kymora Johnson (UVA) #16 Zoe Brooks and #22 Khamil Pierre (both NCSU), and finally #24 Toby Fournier (dook).

Some other players on the list will soon appear: #2 Lauren Betts, #14 Gianna Kneepkens and #17 Kiki Rice (all UCLA); and #4 Madison Booker (Texas). #7 Ta’Niya Latson and #11 Joyce Edwards (both Little Carolina) we have seen already.

No UNC players drew a mention although a case could (and maybe should) have been made for Reniya Kelly.

As all Tar Heel fans know, the head coach at Elon is Charlotte Smith, in her 15th year with a record of 221-199. She has the most wins of any WBB coach in Elon history. Top assistant is Edgar Farmer Jr., a UNC grad (’94) who was for 12 years head coach at Wofford and was video coordinator for Coach Hatchell in 1994. The staff also includes Essence Baucom, an Elon grad who had 17 points against UNC in the Dec. 2016 game. That game ended 78-73 UNC; however, in the last three games Carolina has averaged a 30-point win.

Without question, the last seven years have been tough ones for Coach Charlotte. The Phoenix have racked up just one winning season and one 50/50 season. Personnel issues (read transfers) have been a problem. That was not the case in her first seven years (139-85) capped by two 20+ seasons: 27-7 in 2017 and 25-8 in 2018. Indeed, it was generally assumed that when Sylvia Hatchell retired, Smith would be #1 on the list as a replacement. She was interviewed for the job but later reported to Hatchell that it was “just a formality” and that the AD clearly had no intention whatsoever of hiring her.

On Carolina’s side, while the team is 1-0, there are always some concerns, as is the natural state of affairs for UNC fans. Hard to find flaws in a 48-point win when 12 of 14 players see action and the team shoots 52.9% from the floor and 40% from three. One legitimate concern: 52% from the line. This was a problem last year as well.


The game is 7 PM EST. As of right now, ACCNX is scheduled to stream the game live with GoHeels providing a radio option.

 

[Carolina151]

I may be in the minority, but I'm going to choose not the worry about FT shooting right now. We didn't have Reniya (87%), Lanie (81%) and added Elina (78%) and Nyla Harris (78%) in the off-season. Those 4 are going to be on the floor together late in foul situations.

That 10-19 is ugly, but Nyla B (0-3), and TH (3-6) missed 6 of the 9 misses.

 

[tarboy]

We will be good on FT's

 

[Jriv23]

We will see when we play better teams if FT's will be a concern. I think it will if they do not improve as a team. That was the problem last year. We lost close games at the line against good teams.

 

[3397char]

I will insert my yearly hot take that FTs are over valued by fans, while things like defense are undervalued.

We shot 53% in one game. That is too small a sample set to be statistically significant. 53% would literally be the worst team in d1 WBB last year by a wide margin. UMass Lowell was dead last last year at 57%. But let's say we are UMass Lowell bad at 57%. The D1 average is 68%. The difference between 57% and 68% over 19 attempts is 2 points. That is 2 points lost per game.

And the difference between one standard deviation above the 68% mean and 1 standard deviation below the mean is again, 2 points. The good FT shooting team earns 2 more points than a bad FT shooting team, assuming the d1 average of 18.7 FTs attempted per game.

Yes, 2 points can easily decide a game. It may mean a 2-3 losses over a season when you pile up misses on bad days. So it is meaningful to be a good FT shooting team. But as an example, being a below average defensive team is much worse than being the worst FT shooting team in the nation. that will be 10+ losses on a season.

So you recruit great, rangy athletes who can be taught (or already have) great defense. Not HORSE champions who can win a FT shooting contest. Focusing on FT skills in recruiting creates a team that looks like it belongs in the Ivy league.

You of course work on FT shooting outside of practice all the time. That is expected, demanded of players. Every team has that standard. But FT shooting rarely changes all that much over a career. If you came in with that skill, you may improve it some, but players almost never suddenly become great FT shooters midway through college.

So what you have in terms of FT shooting ability on you team is almost always a fait accompli. You go get the best players you can, they may or may not have FT shooting in their tool bag, and you have only a marginal ability to change this over their 4 years (or less) you are their coach.

Of course if you can have both shooting and athleticism/talent, in a recruit that is better. Many of the top recruits like a Caitlyn Clark are both great shooters and great athletes. Yesm go get as many of those as you can. And no matter what you are going to recruit some great 3pt shooters. That is a must have on every team. Great 3 point shooters are quite often great FT shooters. So you should have some tools to work with.

To use those tools, you strategize on how to keep bad shooters out of the game when you have a lead to protect. If you are not a good shooter you may sit late in games when on offense.

What separates reliable FT shooting teams from liability FT shooting teams is usually what you can do at the post positions. You want a reliable post in the game no matter what for rebounding, and hopefully they do not have a giant target on their back for hack-a-Shaq defense. This season we have Nyla Harris she is a reliable rebounder and a reliable FT shooter. She alone should raise the bar for UNC compared to last season. Hopefully Toomey (back from injury so she could improve) or someone else can also be reliable when we have a lead.

One last thing to remember is that WBB always gives 2 shots. there is no 1-and-1. So even if you have a 60% FT shooter on the floor, that percentage is just as reliable as taking a quality shot on a post move, which is also around 60%. Fouling a below average FT shooter is still efficient offense. Just not as efficient as a top tier 80% FT shooter.

So to a certain degree it is a matter of perspective. Fans tend to expect when a person get to the line it should be an automatic 2 points, and get mad every time that does not happen. That is not reality. Even for an 80% shooter. Instead, it should be seen as better than any other shot attempt we could get by running offense. The defense fouled you either by mistake, or their are just trying to stop the clock.

But the TV commentators have to talk about something during a 90 second break in action to take the 2 FT attempts. Sometimes this happens like 5 times late in one game. So they drone on and on about FT percentage and "gotta make these two" and "announcer jinx." and overvalue this aspect of the game. We fans hear this from a young age and we too are trained to overvalue FT shooting.

My statistics professor at UNC disabused me of this notion and proved it to me with math. This was long before basketball analytics was a thing.

Thus concludes my hot take.

TL:dr don't fret too much about FTs. It is what it is.

edit to add: we shot 67% last season. The ACC leader was FSU at 78%. The difference between the two is 2.06 points per game, assuming 18.7 attempts. Ironically we shot 82.4% in that 1 point loss. But FSU shot 93.8% in that game going 15-16.

 

[3397char]

Elon is merging with Queens, which is pretty wild to me. Will they play sports in Alamance County or Mecklenberg?

 

[kystroup]

I will insert my yearly hot take that FTs are over valued by fans, while things like defense are undervalued.

We shot 53% in one game. That is too small a sample set to be statistically significant. 53% would literally be the worst team in d1 WBB last year by a wide margin. UMass Lowell was dead last last year at 57%. But let's say we are UMass Lowell bad at 57%. The D1 average is 68%. The difference between 57% and 68% over 19 attempts is 2 points. That is 2 points lost per game.

And the difference between one standard deviation above the 68% mean and 1 standard deviation below the mean is again, 2 points. The good FT shooting team earns 2 more points than a bad FT shooting team, assuming the d1 average of 18.7 FTs attempted per game.

Yes, 2 points can easily decide a game. It may mean a 2-3 losses over a season when you pile up misses on bad days. So it is meaningful to be a good FT shooting team. But as an example, being a below average defensive team is much worse than being the worst FT shooting team in the nation. that will be 10+ losses on a season.

So you recruit great, rangy athletes who can be taught (or already have) great defense. Not HORSE champions who can win a FT shooting contest. Focusing on FT skills in recruiting creates a team that looks like it belongs in the Ivy league.

You of course work on FT shooting outside of practice all the time. That is expected, demanded of players. Every team has that standard. But FT shooting rarely changes all that much over a career. If you came in with that skill, you may improve it some, but players almost never suddenly become great FT shooters midway through college.

So what you have in terms of FT shooting ability on you team is almost always a fait accompli. You go get the best players you can, they may or may not have FT shooting in their tool bag, and you have only a marginal ability to change this over their 4 years (or less) you are their coach.

Of course if you can have both shooting and athleticism/talent, in a recruit that is better. Many of the top recruits like a Caitlyn Clark are both great shooters and great athletes. Yesm go get as many of those as you can. And no matter what you are going to recruit some great 3pt shooters. That is a must have on every team. Great 3 point shooters are quite often great FT shooters. So you should have some tools to work with.

To use those tools, you strategize on how to keep bad shooters out of the game when you have a lead to protect. If you are not a good shooter you may sit late in games when on offense.

What separates reliable FT shooting teams from liability FT shooting teams is usually what you can do at the post positions. You want a reliable post in the game no matter what for rebounding, and hopefully they do not have a giant target on their back for hack-a-Shaq defense. This season we have Nyla Harris she is a reliable rebounder and a reliable FT shooter. She alone should raise the bar for UNC compared to last season. Hopefully Toomey (back from injury so she could improve) or someone else can also be reliable when we have a lead.

One last thing to remember is that WBB always gives 2 shots. there is no 1-and-1. So even if you have a 60% FT shooter on the floor, that percentage is just as reliable as taking a quality shot on a post move, which is also around 60%. Fouling a below average FT shooter is still efficient offense. Just not as efficient as a top tier 80% FT shooter.

So to a certain degree it is a matter of perspective. Fans tend to expect when a person get to the line it should be an automatic 2 points, and get mad every time that does not happen. That is not reality. Even for an 80% shooter. Instead, it should be seen as better than any other shot attempt we could get by running offense. The defense fouled you either by mistake, or their are just trying to stop the clock.

But the TV commentators have to talk about something during a 90 second break in action to take the 2 FT attempts. Sometimes this happens like 5 times late in one game. So they drone on and on about FT percentage and "gotta make these two" and "announcer jinx." and overvalue this aspect of the game. We fans hear this from a young age and we too are trained to overvalue FT shooting.

My statistics professor at UNC disabused me of this notion and proved it to me with math. This was long before basketball analytics was a thing.

Thus concludes my hot take.

TL:dr don't fret too much about FTs. It is what it is.

edit to add: we shot 67% last season. The ACC leader was FSU at 78%. The difference between the two is 2.06 points per game, assuming 18.7 attempts. Ironically we shot 82.4% in that 1 point loss. But FSU shot 93.8% in that game going 15-16.

I don’t quite agree - FTs are one of the most efficient shots in the sport. The issue is not only the % we shot on them, but the rate at which we generate them.

Last year we ranked 291st in the country in Free throw rate, which essentially the percentage of points scored that come from free throws. In other words, too much of our offense was coming from difficult or lower efficiency shots. Then you add in the fact that when we did generate FTs they were most often shot by Maria, Alyssa, and Indya (3 mediocre shooters at the line) and you start to see why our offensive efficiency lagged behind the defense.

However, I think there is reason for optimism. Last years issues in this regard at the very least had something to do with personnel. As I mentioned, the players that we had that generated free throws couldn’t shoot them very well. The players that could shoot well didn’t generate them enough, due to clogged driving lanes due to lack of overall team shooting and other deficiencies (size for Reniya and ball handling skill for Lexi).

This year, the personnel seems far better suited to both generate and make far more free throws. Elina looks like she has the requisite athleticism to generate fts and i believe will shoot well - same for Nyla (B) yesterday aside. Lanie actually generated fts at a good rate last year and shot well and I expect that to continue (she needs to clean up the over- penetrating that leads to TOs). For Reniya, the extra space generated by having more shooters on the court should also help. I’m also hoping that the horrible % Toomey shot last year more of an aberration due to confidence than a reflection of her ability .

Why does all of this matter? Because CB has shown that she can consistently assemble elite defenses, but we have not yet been at the level we need to on offense.

The upside case for this year, and imo the program under CB, is that as we add more offensively skilled talent (Kelly, Brooks, Harpring etc) that the offense will catch up to the defense - which has already been championship level

 

[ZinfanHeel]

My concern would be that last season UNC was dead last in the ACC in FT percentage (all games) and only one place better, 17th, in conference games. Oddly, dook and NCSU were right there with us. We don't want to repeat that. As a fan, it is always a bit of a letdown to see a potential 3-point play remain a 2-point play because of a missed free throw. Don Meredith used to say the player he wanted most on his team was Moe - Moe Mentum.

I can't speak with any authority about Carolina, but I do know some coaches leave FT practice up to the individual player.

Our stats from last year showed we were a defensive power, but middle of the pack in offensive stats and rebounding stats. It will be interesting to follow this year's team. Of course, the stat that means the most is that number next to the team's name at the end of the game.

 

[3397char]

I don’t quite agree - FTs are one of the most efficient shots in the sport. The issue is not only the % we shot on them, but the rate at which we generate them.

Last year we ranked 291st in the country in Free throw rate, which essentially the percentage of points scored that come from free throws. In other words, too much of our offense was coming from difficult or lower efficiency shots. Then you add in the fact that when we did generate FTs they were most often shot by Maria, Alyssa, and Indya (3 mediocre shooters at the line) and you start to see why our offensive efficiency lagged behind the defense.

However, I think there is reason for optimism. Last years issues in this regard at the very least had something to do with personnel. As I mentioned, the players that we had that generated free throws couldn’t shoot them very well. The players that could shoot well didn’t generate them enough, due to clogged driving lanes due to lack of overall team shooting and other deficiencies (size for Reniya and ball handling skill for Lexi).

This year, the personnel seems far better suited to both generate and make far more free throws. Elina looks like she has the requisite athleticism to generate fts and i believe will shoot well - same for Nyla (B) yesterday aside. Lanie actually generated fts at a good rate last year and shot well and I expect that to continue (she needs to clean up the over- penetrating that leads to TOs). For Reniya, the extra space generated by having more shooters on the court should also help. I’m also hoping that the horrible % Toomey shot last year more of an aberration due to confidence than a reflection of her ability .

Why does all of this matter? Because CB has shown that she can consistently assemble elite defenses, but we have not yet been at the level we need to on offense.

The upside case for this year, and imo the program under CB, is that as we add more offensively skilled talent (Kelly, Brooks, Harpring etc) that the offense will catch up to the defense - which has already been championship level

"Last year we ranked 291st in the country in Free throw rate, which essentially the percentage of points scored that come from free throws. In other words, too much of our offense was coming from difficult or lower efficiency shots. Then you add in the fact that when we did generate FTs they were most often shot by Maria, Alyssa, and Indya (3 mediocre shooters at the line) and you start to see why our offensive efficiency lagged behind the defense."

100% agree with this. We were a mid-range jumper team too often the last 4 or so years. it was especially true when KTW and Deja were our top shot takers, but also true last season. I would argue this comes most from not having a distributing PG who could stress defenses. . Also our best scorers were bigs and a set shot 3 pt shooter. We fed the post at a much higher rate than most teams (and to be fair, Ustby and especially Gakdeng were actually highly efficient scorers when fed in the pos.) But their style of play was not bruisers who generate FTs; they used footwork to get around people.

As you say, hopefully an improved Kelly, Grant and especially adding Aarnisalo will change this some. Plus more dynamic wings. And Harris who is a bit more of a banger.

But that is not a rebuttal to my argument, it is a different (very valid) point all together,

"Why does all of this matter? Because CB has shown that she can consistently assemble elite defenses, but we have not yet been at the level we need to on offense."

This is actually my greatest concern for the season. I 100% agree that CB is a great defense coach. But will we be elite again? With this roster? and considering how young we are? that is still TBD/ Or will we be trading improved offensive efficiency for a drop in defensive efficiency and as a consequence not improve this year, or perhaps back slide some?

 

[tarboy]

Coach CB can coach them up. The question is can all these young players learn to play great defense that fast. The team being taller on average should help some but being inexperienced will make it a challenge.

 

[uman1]

Jayda Angel played at my old HS (Cape Fear). Nice player. `

 

[6string]

See ya‘ll at the game tomorrow. Back in the bleachers where I started in 1970. Hope for close results or even better.