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ESPN has predictions to win SEC more accurate than most

HD6

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
But they do list us as an underdog to them head to head.
 
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codeDawg

Redshirt
Nov 13, 2007
2,102
0
36
HD6 said:
But they do list us as an underdog to them head to head.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's weird. They predict us to win 8.5, so we have AU, LSU, Bama, and UM that we are underdogs in. They think we have a decent chance of picking up one of those to get the half win in there, which has to be UM.

UM is predicted wins are 7.7, so that's losing all their underdog games in Bama, LSU, AU, and A&M. Then they might drop another, presumably us.

I'm not sure they lose that A&M game, but I can definitely see injuries stacking up on them late in the year and dropping the Egg Bowl.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,939
26,390
113
It's not weird. They're not picking which specific games any team will win or lose. Just the probably that each team will win each game. Add up the probabilities and that's your expected wins. For example, if Team A has a 60% chance of winning each of 5 games, their expected wins would be 3.0 (60% * 5), even though they would be favored in all 5.
 
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WayboDawg

Redshirt
Jun 7, 2013
1,219
1
38
I wont pencil any SEC game in as a definite win for us. Too many years have I seen an SEC team come out of nowhere to have a breakout year: Auburn 2010, Texas A&M 2012, Auburn 2013. Wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas had a breakout year. 6-6 is just as likely as 9-3 for us in my opinion.
 
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esplanade91

Redshirt
Dec 9, 2010
5,656
0
0
HD6 said:
But they do list us as an underdog to them head to head.
Click to expand...
I don't think that's very off. 47% chance at their place? That's essentially Ole Miss being favored -3.

I think Ole Miss is going to be good this year. Anyone who thinks they won't be is fooling themselves. The Egg Bowl won't be winner-takes-the-West but it could damn sure be for one of the 2 teams.
 
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MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
7,316
0
0
This is going to be a really good year for football in this state.

That 2013 recruiting class for Ole Miss looks pretty much as good as it did on paper. Treadwell and Tunsil may end up being very high draft picks. Engram and Conner also had really good freshman years. Nkemdiche has a ton of talent and will do really well if he can stay out of trouble.

We have basically everyone coming back except for Gabe, Nickoe, and Perk. I think our defense has a chance to be great, and this should be our best offense under Mullen if Dak stays healthy.
 
DawgatAuburn

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
11,015
1,874
113
Same here but different reason. We rarely chalk up the expected wins with much ease. Last year we were mostly all expecting three SEC wins at minimum. It took an OT touchdown by Damian to beat winless Arkansas, a game saving tackle from Kendrick Market to beat UK, and some Wallacing to lock up the Egg. We're far more certain to lose a few than win a few.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,939
26,390
113
It really should be. I could easily see MSU and UM combining for 17 wins after the bowls this year.
 
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RebelBruiser

Redshirt
Aug 21, 2007
7,349
0
0
patdog said:
It's not weird. They're not picking which specific games any team will win or lose. Just the probably that each team will win each game. Add up the probabilities and that's your expected wins. For example, if Team A has a 60% chance of winning each of 5 games, their expected wins would be 3.0 (60% * 5), even though they would be favored in all 5.
Click to expand...

Yea, and considering how easy your non-conference slate is, that's probably close to 4.0 wins right there. I'm sure we lose at some probability through having non-conference games with Boise and ULL that aren't complete pushovers.

Plus, you have a very favorable in-conference schedule as well this year. It's one of those schedule bounces you need to take advantage of.

And like others have said, they give us a 53% chance of winning the Egg Bowl, which means we get 0.53 wins for it, and you get 0.47 wins, for a difference of only 0.06 wins in our totals for that game.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,939
26,390
113
Yeah, that should be real close to 4.0 for us. You've got a couple of OOC games that could potentially give you some trouble, but I think you win both. I actually think you'll beat Boise pretty bad, ULL is the one you might need to worry a little about. We've basically got the same SEC schedule. Only difference is we get Vandy at home and you get them on the road, and we get Kentucky on the road and you get Tennessee at home. None of those teams will be bowling this year.
 
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