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<blockquote data-quote="Mountaineer Steve" data-source="post: 129493786" data-attributes="member: 1495432"><p>I will get to your question at the end</p><p></p><p>I am not arguing for or against expansion now or in the future. It probably does not seem like it, but I agree with many of your points <strong><u>for </u></strong>expansion. My argument has always been that the BIG12 won't expand because in the short run the per team payout will be less (an areas we disagree strongly on). </p><p></p><p>My thoughts and where we agree and disagree</p><p></p><p><u><strong>Money: </strong></u>You and I are in total disagreement here. </p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I am positive, total revenue for each team is going to take a hit or be less (short term). </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Yes the TV revenue stays the same, but everything else is going to go down. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Assuming a 10 team CCG is played my projects is 3-5 million less per team. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Less money and LHN are the two main reason the conference won't expand now. </li> </ul><p></p><p><u><strong>10 team CCG:</strong></u></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">We both agree having a 10 team CCG takes away the disadvantage of not having the 13 data point </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I believe the disadvantage of a 10 team CCG is less severe than you.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Having a 10 team CCG makes more money per school per year</li> </ul><p><u><strong>BIG12 Network </strong></u>Other area I think we totally disagree</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Expanding with G5 programs without BIG12 Network is pointless</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Creating a BIG12 Network without Texas isn't worth the effort</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Texas is not going to give up LHN, therefore a BIG12 Network isn't worth the effort, therefore expansion with G5 programs now is useless. </li> </ul><p><strong><u>The votes are not there</u></strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Again I am not for or against expansion, I just want it done for the right reasons. When I say the conference is not going to expand I mean there are not enough votes.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Until something is done Everything said by ADs, presidents, or Commissioner is just smoke</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">When Bowlsby talks about expansion you have to read between the lines.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">When he says the 'conference does not want to expand', he is saying the votes are not there</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">When he says I have not spoken to programs about expansion, he means officially. He currently knows exactly how each program will vote and that the votes are not there. </li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Boren, knows the votes are not thee and is why he presented his case in public. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I believe the manner in which Boren presented his argument was major mistake and it backfired a bit. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Even Gee who agrees with Boren, thinks his message was not presented well. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Pressure from the league has Boren backing away from some of those comments. </li> </ul><p>Now to answer your question. </p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The same G5 programs will be available now and in the future.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Why add G5 now when there is the possibility the BIG will raid the ACC and better P5 programs are available. (We can discuss the larger reason why I think the ACC is more vulnerable to a raid then the BIG12, later.)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I think the impact of waiting is minimal . There has always been a separation from what is now P5 programs and G5 and there have always been candidates that might be worth selecting. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">There has to be a super majority for the BIG12 to expand. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The BIG12 as a whole is short sighted (meaning a super majority) or too selfish to understand that the long term benefits of expanding to 12. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Texas is not giving up LHN, and for now that means more money per team to be made short term with just 10 teams. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Just like the BIG12 waited to see the impact of not having a CCG game played out toin Playoff selection, so will they evaluate the impact of 10 team CCG. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Evaluating the impact of a 10 team CCG will take several years for enough data to make a determination. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I think it is safe to assume the CCG game does not start until 2017. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">It will be 2020 before enough data is gathered evaluate the situation. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Assuming 10 team CCG is deemed a disadvantage, it will take at least a year to vote to for expansion and hash out which program to bring in. I believe agreeing on which program is going to be as difficult as agreeing to expand.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">It will take at least 1 year for for a program to leave current conference. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">So at the earliest we looking at 2022. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">At that point there is no reason to add teams until new deals (whatever format) is ready for bid. I am not saying you wait until the bidding is done, but that the bidding takes place knowing what programs are being added.</li> </ul><p>Long winded answer to a short question.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mountaineer Steve, post: 129493786, member: 1495432"] I will get to your question at the end I am not arguing for or against expansion now or in the future. It probably does not seem like it, but I agree with many of your points [B][U]for [/U][/B]expansion. My argument has always been that the BIG12 won't expand because in the short run the per team payout will be less (an areas we disagree strongly on). My thoughts and where we agree and disagree [U][B]Money: [/B][/U]You and I are in total disagreement here. [LIST] [*]I am positive, total revenue for each team is going to take a hit or be less (short term). [*]Yes the TV revenue stays the same, but everything else is going to go down. [*]Assuming a 10 team CCG is played my projects is 3-5 million less per team. [*]Less money and LHN are the two main reason the conference won't expand now. [/LIST] [U][B]10 team CCG:[/B][/U] [LIST] [*]We both agree having a 10 team CCG takes away the disadvantage of not having the 13 data point [*]I believe the disadvantage of a 10 team CCG is less severe than you. [*]Having a 10 team CCG makes more money per school per year [/LIST] [U][B]BIG12 Network [/B][/U]Other area I think we totally disagree [LIST] [*]Expanding with G5 programs without BIG12 Network is pointless [*]Creating a BIG12 Network without Texas isn't worth the effort [*]Texas is not going to give up LHN, therefore a BIG12 Network isn't worth the effort, therefore expansion with G5 programs now is useless. [/LIST] [B][U]The votes are not there[/U][/B] [LIST] [*]Again I am not for or against expansion, I just want it done for the right reasons. When I say the conference is not going to expand I mean there are not enough votes. [*]Until something is done Everything said by ADs, presidents, or Commissioner is just smoke [*]When Bowlsby talks about expansion you have to read between the lines. [LIST] [*]When he says the 'conference does not want to expand', he is saying the votes are not there [*]When he says I have not spoken to programs about expansion, he means officially. He currently knows exactly how each program will vote and that the votes are not there. [/LIST] [*]Boren, knows the votes are not thee and is why he presented his case in public. [*]I believe the manner in which Boren presented his argument was major mistake and it backfired a bit. [*]Even Gee who agrees with Boren, thinks his message was not presented well. [*]Pressure from the league has Boren backing away from some of those comments. [/LIST] Now to answer your question. [LIST] [*]The same G5 programs will be available now and in the future. [*]Why add G5 now when there is the possibility the BIG will raid the ACC and better P5 programs are available. (We can discuss the larger reason why I think the ACC is more vulnerable to a raid then the BIG12, later.) [*]I think the impact of waiting is minimal . There has always been a separation from what is now P5 programs and G5 and there have always been candidates that might be worth selecting. [*]There has to be a super majority for the BIG12 to expand. [*]The BIG12 as a whole is short sighted (meaning a super majority) or too selfish to understand that the long term benefits of expanding to 12. [*]Texas is not giving up LHN, and for now that means more money per team to be made short term with just 10 teams. [*]Just like the BIG12 waited to see the impact of not having a CCG game played out toin Playoff selection, so will they evaluate the impact of 10 team CCG. [*]Evaluating the impact of a 10 team CCG will take several years for enough data to make a determination. [*]I think it is safe to assume the CCG game does not start until 2017. [*]It will be 2020 before enough data is gathered evaluate the situation. [*]Assuming 10 team CCG is deemed a disadvantage, it will take at least a year to vote to for expansion and hash out which program to bring in. I believe agreeing on which program is going to be as difficult as agreeing to expand. [*]It will take at least 1 year for for a program to leave current conference. [*]So at the earliest we looking at 2022. [*]At that point there is no reason to add teams until new deals (whatever format) is ready for bid. I am not saying you wait until the bidding is done, but that the bidding takes place knowing what programs are being added. [/LIST] Long winded answer to a short question. [/QUOTE]
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