Expected Record, Probability of Undefeated, Schedule Strength
- Thread starter GilliamRatings
- Start date
Wow this looks like a lot of good work! I am just amazed on how you do it. It has got to take a lot of time. One question, How do you make preseason predictions? Is it based on last season results? Does it factor in returning starters, coaching changes, and etc?
Thanks again for your work.
Thanks again for your work.
I won't speak for Gilliam but I cannot imagine how it would take anything but past performance into consideration. I do assume it would not be done just on 1 past season.
The comment here is this. It took a lot more time than you think. I'd say I'd been working on the spreadsheet to calculate this mess on and off for a decade. Hopefully I can crank it out real fast from this point forward. This is really #3 on my priority list in the fall, so we'll see how I do keeping it all updated.
It's just using last year's final ratings. So there's nothing really "predictive" about it. I think of it this way, this is what we'd expect to happen with this year's schedule if everyone is as good as they were last year. Close to useless, but fun as heck.
