FC: Franklin after a decade…
- Thread starter Midnighter
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.Penn State teams under Franklin will almost always be good and almost never be great. I put his chances of a serious title run in the next 10 years at 5%. When I was a hard core fan that would have been unacceptable. Now, I can live with it. I am off the bandwagon, but if a great season manifests itself, I will jump on and act like I never left.
Washington won by 2 pts on a flukey dropped punt snap in the rain. They were outgained. The point spread was good. You are looking at the spread through the lens of today.
People forget that Washington did not look like a top 10 team for the latter part of the regular season. They were outgained by oregon, asu, Stanford, or st and wsu. They only teams that didn't outgained them (Utah and usc) were close and had more ypp.
I watched them play Oregon and Oregon St. I wouldn’t have put Oregon as the favorite in the rematch. They are a team that can win regardless of not playing their best. They find ways to win.
Bookmakers set lines based on power ratings for each team. At the time of the UW-UO rematch, the UW power rating had fallen quite a bit and UO had gone up to the point where there was a 7 to 9 point difference. Any bookmaker that would have made UW a favorite would have been crushed with sharp money. Yes, the books would have won based on a sample size of 1, but in the long run they would lose a lot of money.
Then the rankings are worthless too because they were ranked the number 3 team in the country, were undefeated and had already beaten Oregon. That doesn’t count for anything?
I'm going to give Franklin a B. That's as a fan (formerly a fanatic, but age has tempered my fanaticism - or maybe the annual disappointments against OSU and scUM).
As an alumni of PSU, he gets an A- for his ability to attract players who appear to be students, stay out of the police blotter, and represent the university well. Knocking on wood.
I wish that Barbour didn't give in to the lengthy contract, but like someone stated earlier, we don't know what the going rate for successful D1 football coaches will be in theI future. Maybe PSU got a bargain, but in 2024 it doesn't feel like it (fan talking).
The BTN wanks, when they spent the day at PSU for their preseason hype train, were off-the-wall positive on this PSU team. Three 2023 games (against better teams) spoil that optimism. PSU's record defines them as a 2nd level team in conference and in national perception. Franklin needs to accept his role, not necessarily to the Nittany Fandom, but to the players and staff.
2024 will be quite the challenge
As an alumni of PSU, he gets an A- for his ability to attract players who appear to be students, stay out of the police blotter, and represent the university well. Knocking on wood.
I wish that Barbour didn't give in to the lengthy contract, but like someone stated earlier, we don't know what the going rate for successful D1 football coaches will be in theI future. Maybe PSU got a bargain, but in 2024 it doesn't feel like it (fan talking).
The BTN wanks, when they spent the day at PSU for their preseason hype train, were off-the-wall positive on this PSU team. Three 2023 games (against better teams) spoil that optimism. PSU's record defines them as a 2nd level team in conference and in national perception. Franklin needs to accept his role, not necessarily to the Nittany Fandom, but to the players and staff.
2024 will be quite the challenge
Exactly. Who doesn't wish for better? But CJF hasn't been the demise of the program as a national power- that happened well before his arrival.
You nailed it. When it comes to setting lines, the rankings are absolutely worthless and so are records. The only thing that matters to the bookmaker when establishing the line is their own power ratings, which could be vastly different than polls. Obviously there will then be adjustments based on injuries, weather, matchups, etc. FWIW, I make my own power ratings throughout the season and I'm often oblivious to the poll rankings.
Their power rankings were wrong then….twice. Actually, they were wrong three times with UW. Since, Michigan is currently a 5.5 point favorite, I hope they are wrong a fourth time also.
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So, was the UW power ranking wrong the week before the P12 title game when they were 15 point favorites vs WSU and only won by 3?
He's done a superb job recruiting. His players all graduate. He keeps the team together. He usually wins when he is supposed to win.
He's 1-9 vs OSU... He is often outcoached in big games... Many of his in-game decisions are head-scratching... He's not worth his annual salary. His record against ranked opponents is abysmal. He'll likely never be better than 10-2... I predict 7-5 in 2024, then expect the seat to get very warm for 2025.
B-
He's 1-9 vs OSU... He is often outcoached in big games... Many of his in-game decisions are head-scratching... He's not worth his annual salary. His record against ranked opponents is abysmal. He'll likely never be better than 10-2... I predict 7-5 in 2024, then expect the seat to get very warm for 2025.
B-
To be fair I don't believe that rating system has anything to do with graduation rates.
Academic Progress Rate Explained
Academic Progress Rate Explained What is the APR and how is it calculated?
www.ncaa.org
You are correct. Actual graduation rates - at PSU and elsewhere - are far (very far) lower than people think when they are duped by that made up number from the NCAA.To be fair I don't believe that rating system has anything to do with graduation rates.
Academic Progress Rate Explained
Academic Progress Rate Explained What is the APR and how is it calculated?
The rigor of the academic experience of the vast majority of participants in big $ college sports is laughable.
B …but that appears to be ceiling.
About as plain lucky as Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State are for the same reason.
Pretty spot on and how I've felt for yrs about him. Now that this thing(Playoffs) is expanding let's see if we can be regulars and maybe even make a run at some point.
All DeBoer does is win, regardless of where he has been.
They were "underdogs," perhaps according to Vegas, but was the higher ranked team. They were not underdogs according to the rankings.
I was in a charitable mood that day. It won't happen again.
Not in the world of sports betting and handicapping. When valuing a team, it's often more important to look at the box score of a game then the final score.
No reason they should be. What SEC teams are taken seriously that drop games to Bama and Georgia every year? The answer is no one cares. Is anyone who lost to Clemson 7 years in a row taken seriously? There are quite a few teams in that 10-2, 9-3 who are basically exactly where everyone expects only because they didn’t lose to the teams they were supposed to beat. That puts PSU solidly in that 2nd tier because they are alway there, like LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, etc. They are dangerous because they can upset a top tier team, but it would definitely be an upset. The third tier is filled with teams that can get to 9-10 wins but don’t consistently and have to pull an upset to get there. So yes, only the top tier teams are taken seriously and we are not one.
LSU? This LSU?
lsusports.net
LSU Football in the College Football Playoff Rankings
lsusports.net
Ok, so one example wasn’t perfect. If Joe Burrow was our QB in 2019 we would have won the national championship. I still don’t think people on a national level consider LSU football to be superior to PSU more than they consider them similar. None of which was my point anyway.LSU? This LSU?
LSU Football in the College Football Playoff Rankings
I don’t think it’s a power rating as much as it is where the money will flow. If ND played Liberty, and Liberty was a real powerhouse, ND would likely be favored because a lot of people will bet them. If during the week an outpouring of bets were made for Liberty, the line would move towards Liberty.
Even as blind Franklin truther, I must admit we need him to become elite in a couple of categories as a head coach. I want the guy here for 2 more decades but if he doesn't take the next step up, then even I, America's most impressive Lions fan, will need to ask him to move on.
No coach since the SMU castration has improved a dire situation more than James Franklin. Meatchicken had losing records under two coaches that the fired, and even one under Harbaugh. To the nose pickers credit, he licked his wounds and reframed his team boldly, canning prima donna assistants and giving Moore the OC job. 2023 was THAT crossroads season for James, he must evolve upward from here in HIS performance. Our kids are more talented than ever, their attitude as a team is glorious, they no longer stop playing hard after devasting losses as they did in 2017-2020. They no longer cave due to sudden change, James is making progress in mental bowl preparation. He has the recipe for saving the non-play-off bowls and if he was point on point through Kraft, they could save the bowl system from the media and fans.
If you stop hating yourself, it is easy to love James Franklin. he is a guy who is well paid who is being asked to grow in his job ffs.
10 years. It’s facilities, NiL, assistant coaches, players, moving parts, etc. Progress? No.
Yes, but the original line is set largely using power ratings. Then it's shaped by the money.
Bro if State won the Natty in 2019 it’s all we d talk about for 10 years. Dismissing it is silly
LSU football is > PSU football
B-. He does a lot well such as represent the program, generally develop good human beings, recruits at a pretty good level.
But his developmental areas such as game day coaching and schemes have improved little over the duration of his tenure here.
10 years in, he is who he is. PSU has likely plateaued. As another poster said, big breakthroughs are overwhelmingly more likely in years 1-5 than after that. And Franklin is coming out of year 10. All at big, big $.
But his developmental areas such as game day coaching and schemes have improved little over the duration of his tenure here.
10 years in, he is who he is. PSU has likely plateaued. As another poster said, big breakthroughs are overwhelmingly more likely in years 1-5 than after that. And Franklin is coming out of year 10. All at big, big $.
I think you’re onto a good point wrt the life cycle of the program and its biggest supporters. The base has aged and the younger fans don’t have decades of success to lean on. They don’t know any better than 9-10 wins.
