I think 5% is high... more like 1% chance that we're significantly better than finishing in Top 12 of Final BCS Rankings (i.e., making the National Playoffs) at a 70% rate - because that was Franklin's record over the last 10 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR (Franklin finished Top 12 in the Final CFP Rankings and went to FBS Controlled Bowls 7 of the last 10 years - PSU is one of only 2 b1g programs, and 6 total Nationally, to have accomplished this over the span.). The fact that PSU is in a group of only 6 teams Nationally to have succeeded in qualifying for BCS Controlled Games at this rate over the last decade tells you exactly how hard it is to win at the rate Franklin was winning.
Franklin had his strengths and he had his weaknesses. He is not as great as you represent in your posts and he is not as bad as others make him out to be. IMO, he is in between a top 10 to top 15 coach who was coaching a top 10 program.
I liked him and think he did a good job at PSU. He took over at a tough time and his strengths were perfect for what PSU needed at that time. However, his time had run at PSU.
He built this years team to the point where he had an opportunity to challenge for a NC. The administration gave him everything he needed to have a championship caliber season, including hiring what was supposed to be the best defensive coordinator in College Football and retention of what was supposed to be one of the top offensive coordinators in college football. A lot of money, effort and player loyalty was invested into this year and it appeared that the stars had aligned. A good coaching job has us in the playoffs challenging for the NC.
Franklin failed miserably this year and lost the team. His coaching job this year was historically bad. He appeared despondent, lost and without answers. This season's failure was definitely a fireable offense. IMO, the program would have remained in a tailspin if he stayed as head coach, not because he was a bad coach, but his time here had run its course. The "Big Game James" moniker was not going away while he remained as PSU. He definitely needed a new start at a new place to recharge his battery and PSU definitely needs a change as well.
I don't know that a new coach will have the same success that Franklin had looking back in his time at PSU. However, I do believe a new coach will do better than Franklin would have done moving forward at this point. Franklin was done at PSU and the administration made the right decision to fire him. Its time to move on.