Final CFP scenarios

[Perd Hapley]

Of the current Top 12, really nothing but chalk results this entire holiday weekend, except for Texas beating A&M which ultimately has zero effect on the teams making the field. Notre Dame is up 35-3 on Stanford at the half, so I’m gonna go ahead and give them a W there.

Outside the Top 12, Vandy’s road win over UT was easily the most impressive win of the weekend.

Its a pretty simple set of circumstances now. 2 spots left other than ACC / G5 autobids. Notre Dame, Bama, BYU, Miami, and Vanderbilt are vying for those spots. Everything depends on the SEC and Big 12 title games. Nothing else really matters.

If Bama and BYU both win their championship games, they get the 2 spots automatically. ND is out, as is everyone else on the bubble.

If BYU wins and Bama loses, BYU is in, and committee must decide between Bama and ND for the final spot. It probably goes to ND, based on current rankings.

If Bama wins and BYU loses, its clearly Bama and ND for the final 2 spots.

The possible controversy comes in if both Bama and BYU lose their title games. In this scenario, BYU is out for sure. Notre Dame is in. The final spot comes down to Bama, Vandy, and Miami. Bama would be 10-3 with a bad loss to FSU, good wins over UGA, Vandy, and Tennessee. Miami would have the ND win but 2 bad losses and a really weak schedule. Vandy would have no bad losses but would be hurt by the head to head loss against Bama….solid wins vs. Tennessee and Mizzou. Seems like the common sense thing is to go Bama or Vandy, but would the committee do the right thing even though it adds a 5th SEC team, or would they just shoehorn Miami in there?

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It's wild that a team can go 10-2 in the SEC and not make the playoffs.

 

[85Bears]

Notre Dame is the lock of locks to be in. Love em or hate em, they have gotten better every week and I would not want to face them right now. as good as Carr is playing with Love at running back , receivers, tight end…they are deep

 

[Perd Hapley]

It's wild that a team can go 10-2 in the SEC and not make the playoffs.

It is, and there might be two of them, albeit one at 10-3 due to CG loss.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Of the current Top 12, really nothing but chalk results this entire holiday weekend, except for Texas beating A&M which ultimately has zero effect on the teams making the field. Notre Dame is up 35-3 on Stanford at the half, so I’m gonna go ahead and give them a W there.

Outside the Top 12, Vandy’s road win over UT was easily the most impressive win of the weekend.

Its a pretty simple set of circumstances now. 2 spots left other than ACC / G5 autobids. Notre Dame, Bama, BYU, Miami, and Vanderbilt are vying for those spots. Everything depends on the SEC and Big 12 title games. Nothing else really matters.

If Bama and BYU both win their championship games, they get the 2 spots automatically. ND is out, as is everyone else on the bubble.

If BYU wins and Bama loses, BYU is in, and committee must decide between Bama and ND for the final spot. It probably goes to ND, based on current rankings.

If Bama wins and BYU loses, its clearly Bama and ND for the final 2 spots.

The possible controversy comes in if both Bama and BYU lose their title games. In this scenario, BYU is out for sure. Notre Dame is in. The final spot comes down to Bama, Vandy, and Miami. Bama would be 10-3 with a bad loss to FSU, good wins over UGA, Vandy, and Tennessee. Miami would have the ND win but 2 bad losses and a really weak schedule. Vandy would have no bad losses but would be hurt by the head to head loss against Bama….solid wins vs. Tennessee and Mizzou. Seems like the common sense thing is to go Bama or Vandy, but would the committee do the right thing even though it adds a 5th SEC team, or would they just shoehorn Miami in there?

I think Bama would get in over Vandy because of the head to head win (and it was a convincing 16-point victory). Alabama also has the best win anyone has had all season, winning at Georgia. I just don’t see the committee punishing a team for losing in a conference championship game by dropping them out of the playoff. If they do that, conferences should cancel championship games outright.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Notre Dame is the lock of locks to be in. Love em or hate em, they have gotten better every week and I would not want to face them right now. as good as Carr is playing with Love at running back , receivers, tight end…they are deep

I think you’re probably right. But, they have to give the boot to either Notre Dame or Oklahoma if both Bama and BYU win. No other choice. OU is currently ranked ahead of Notre Dame, and beat a much better team than ND did today. I don’t see how they can kick OU out.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I think Bama would get in over Vandy because of the head to head win (and it was a convincing 16-point victory). Alabama also has the best win anyone has had all season, winning at Georgia. I just don’t see the committee punishing a team for losing in a conference championship game by dropping them out of the playoff. If they do that, conferences should cancel championship games outright.

That’s logical. But important to remember that FSU loss that Bama has, which wasn’t just a loss but was a total asśkicking. Bama has both the best win and the worst loss. Kind of makes you think at a minimum that they can’t just get rolled by UGA in Atlanta. It’s gotta be somewhat competitive.

 

[FlotownDawg]

That’s logical. But important to remember that FSU loss that Bama has, which wasn’t just a loss but was a total asśkicking. Bama has both the best win and the worst loss. Kind of makes you think at a minimum that they can’t just get rolled by UGA in Atlanta. It’s gotta be somewhat competitive.

I agree that Bama has to be competitive with Georgia. If they get blown out, then all bets are off. But if it’s a competitive game, I don’t see them falling out of the playoff.

 

[85Bears]

I think you’re probably right. But, they have to give the boot to either Notre Dame or Oklahoma if both Bama and BYU win. No other choice. OU is currently ranked ahead of Notre Dame, and beat a much better team than ND did today. I don’t see how they can kick OU out.

Yea, for that scenario BYU has to beat Tech in the big 12 championship, which I don’t think they can. if they do then OU and ND would be competing for a spot. One argument for ND was FPI and Vegas have them ranked #3, Vegas by odds makers on the NC.

I think ND is probably the third best team right now, maybe #2 after Ohio State. what’s going to hurt OU is the number of sec teams getting in, and ND is good for ratings.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Yea, for that scenario BYU has to beat Tech in the big 12 championship, which I don’t think they can.

I don’t think so either. But who knows.

if they do then OU and ND would be competing for a spot. One argument for ND was FPI and Vegas have them ranked #3, Vegas by odds makers on the NC.

Committee doesn’t look at Vegas odds and stuff like that. They do look at Strength of Record, that currently has OU #8 and ND #13.

Some facts:
1) OU is ranked ahead of ND right now.
2) OU beat a much better team today than Notre Dame did.
3) Neither OU nor ND plays again before the teams are picked.

Given all that, I don’t think the committee has a viable path to swapping them without facing tons of criticism. There’s just no justification.

I think ND is probably the third best team right now, maybe #2 after Ohio State. what’s going to hurt OU is the number of sec teams getting in, and ND is good for ratings.

That may be true, but doesn’t really matter for the selection process. They have to look at the whole season. It also hurts ND that their best win is over the 5th place team in the Big 10. OU beat two better teams than that.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

17 Pavia and his trash asss family. Not to mention the fact that he’s single handily attempting to take down the NCAA eligibility rules.

Again I say 17 him, 17 his family, and 17 Vanderbilt. They get no sympathy.