Four teams. One National Seed Spot.

[615dawg]

Here are your current national seeds.

1. North Carolina
2. Vanderbilt
3. LSU
4. Virginia
5. Oregon State
6. Florida State OR North Carolina State (They play each other in Raliegh this week. ACC won't get more than 3)
7. Cal State Fullerton
--------------------
Contenders for 8.

Oregon (at Ohio State, Oregon State remaining/could knock Oregon State out with home sweep)
Mississippi State (at Ole Miss, South Carolina remaining)
South Carolina (Georgia, at Mississippi State remaining)
Indiana (Northwestern, Ohio State remaining, Louisville and Kentucky in midweek - could sneak into national seed)

That leaves four most host spots.
My four are:
Arizona State (Hasn't done anything to help or hurt cause, weak side of P12 remaining so should be solid)
UCLA (Currently #3 in Pac 12, could jump into national seed picture with 10-2 or better finish)
Louisville (Big East, geography)
Arkansas (RPI is 39 and headed down, but likely 3rd in SEC)
----------------
Contenders are:
Clemson (Would give ACC five)
South Alabama (RPI is solid, possibly in if RPI is too low for Arkansas)
Kansas State (likely Big 12 champion)

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Didn't Arizona State lose 2 out of 3 this weekend to Stanford?

 

[615dawg]

Yeah, but they really haven't hurt their cause

If the Fighting Byrnes take 2 from them this week, their hosting may be in danger. I think they were solid enough to withstand the lost series to a ranked team.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Why is Stanford ranked? RPI is 73, swept at home by UNLV (99), lost home series to Utah (155), SOS is only 125, and only 3-6 against the top 50.

They should be a longshot bubble team right now, not a ranked team that's probably in...

 

[blacklistedbully]

My best guess from the other thread.

IF we beat Oral Roberts and take 5 of 6 from UM & SCar, we should still be in hunt for national seed. Lose to Oral Roberts and only sweeps of UM & SCar will save us. Beat OR, but lose 2 to either UM or SCar and we are out. Assuming we do go at least 6-1, here's how I see it:

National seeds in:
Vandy
NC
LSU
Va
Winner of upcoming Oregon/Oregon State 4 game set (assuming one wins)
Winner of upcoming FSU/NCSU 3 game set.
Last 2 spots a horse race between MSU, Cal State Fullerton, any split loser of Oregon/Oregon State, and split loser of FSU/NCSU.

Cal State is a little higher, but has 10 games left against decent, if not great teams. Our remaining schedule is harder. They probably can't afford to lose more than 1.

5-2 with 2-1 series wins might do it if we get help from teams above us screwing the pooch.

 

[patdog]

Because their name is Stanford.

 

[dawgphd]

Good analysis 615.

Let me add.

The ACC has 9 of top 23 RPI. The SEC has 6 of top 20. In a perfect world, the SEC and ACC would probably get 10 or 11 of 16 host spots. The NCAA isn't perfect.

Watch out for Virginia Tech as a host. They plus South Alabama and Indiana could end up committee darlings.

Mercer looks like this year's Samford.

Arkansas is a MAJOR problem for the selection committee. Is there a possibility of Arkansas hosting as a #2 seed? Going to be hard to give the SEC #4 and/or #5 host spots above the #3 league finisher. Especially give the NCAA's recent emphasis on conference finish.

Three RPI facts of note:
The highest Big 12 is Kansas State at 25. Next is Oklahoma at 45. What is wrong with the Big 12?
The highest Texas school regardless of conference is Rice at 37. Could there be no regional in Texas?
The highest true northeastern school is Seton Hall at 42. This probably moves Louisville five hundred miles north and five hundred miles east for geography purposes.

Also, the Vandy USC rainout could end up being huge.