Gambling thread
- Thread starter JungRebel
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How'd you do last week? I didn't do so hot
Arizona State +170 ML
Memphis ML
Packers ML
For last week I went 4-5 for what I posted here. I usually do a little more once Saturday rolls around. I post the picks I'm most confident in here but those dont always turn out to be my best picks of the week. Started with $100 this year, got a $50 deposit bonus from Bovada. Before this week starts i am up $435 on the season. Had an 8-2-1 week 2 weeks ago.
Jung, when you place that many bets, is it the same amount of money on each line? Do you find 10 games every week and repeat the process? I'm finding myself being inconsistent with strategy. Sometimes spreading it around works and sometimes going big on only a few lines I like works, but overall I'm losing money and have nearly decided to just quite gambling altogether.
I'm not dumb and betting a lot of money, but the whole point is to win money and if I'm losing, I'm smart enough to throw in the towel. I hope!.
I'm not dumb and betting a lot of money, but the whole point is to win money and if I'm losing, I'm smart enough to throw in the towel. I hope!.
It doesn't matter what strategy you use, sooner or later the odds will catch up with you with sports gambling. All those stats people find and all that research people do to give them a so called "edge". Guess what? Vegas has already taken all of those stats and factored them in when they set the line. Anybody that claims to have a record north of 50% is either lying to you, extremely lucky, or they have not taken enough picks for the odds to catch up.
Gambing is fun. I gamble on sports and it's fun to keep up with my picks and banter with my friends about why my picks are better than theirs. I just keep it at a level where my losses are pretty much payments for having fun. Set a low number you can handle and roll with it.
Gambing is fun. I gamble on sports and it's fun to keep up with my picks and banter with my friends about why my picks are better than theirs. I just keep it at a level where my losses are pretty much payments for having fun. Set a low number you can handle and roll with it.
I look at it like this. I put $100 in at the start of the year. If I lose it, it's gone and I'll try again next year. If I get up a few hundred I withdraw and start over with my initial $100. I bet $10 on most games, with $15 on games I'm sure of and a few $5 and $10 parlays thrown in when I get up a bit. I've hit some parlays with Bama, OU and Clemson this year that have really gotten me up. Overall win % is just above 50%.
Often my best bets are live bets. E.g., when Tulane was up on Auburn 3-0 late in the first, I hammered the line when it got down to AU -6.5. I did the same thing when Bama struggled early with Duke, and when KC was struggling two weeks ago i got them at -2.5 at the end of Q1. I watch closely every week for superior teams struggling early, then hit the line when it gets as low as I think it will go. This year I've withdrawn $300 and am playing around with $235 for this weekend. It's my second year going with this 'strategy' and I'm still new to it overall. I lost my $100 last year about mid season so I made sure to withdraw early this time.
Often my best bets are live bets. E.g., when Tulane was up on Auburn 3-0 late in the first, I hammered the line when it got down to AU -6.5. I did the same thing when Bama struggled early with Duke, and when KC was struggling two weeks ago i got them at -2.5 at the end of Q1. I watch closely every week for superior teams struggling early, then hit the line when it gets as low as I think it will go. This year I've withdrawn $300 and am playing around with $235 for this weekend. It's my second year going with this 'strategy' and I'm still new to it overall. I lost my $100 last year about mid season so I made sure to withdraw early this time.
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Ariz St +5.5
Navy +11
UAB -3
Fresno St -17
I'll bet these straight up then take some flyers on some 4 and 5 team parlays. If only I could hit in college the way I've hit in the NFL this year. I'm at 59% for the year overall, but currently at over 80% in NFL with 25 total bets. The odds are going to catch me soon I'm sure.
Navy +11
UAB -3
Fresno St -17
I'll bet these straight up then take some flyers on some 4 and 5 team parlays. If only I could hit in college the way I've hit in the NFL this year. I'm at 59% for the year overall, but currently at over 80% in NFL with 25 total bets. The odds are going to catch me soon I'm sure.
Thanks, Jung. I've been successful with the live betting this year more so picking ATS or O/U. I deposited a total of $200 last year and lost it all but was able to play the whole season. I put $100 in this year, got up to $190s and now I've lost it all.
The parlays almost seem like throwing money away even if it's a $5 to win $60. $5 adds up. Last year I won one really nice parlay but I think I was 1 for about 10 on that, so overall it's a waste. I had a parlay that would have worked out for me very well this year had Kansas just beaten freaking Coastal Carolina!
It is fun and makes games interesting, but losing $100 in 3 weeks is never fun haha. I think I'll give it another $100 and see what happens. I should be able to start watching more football this year and may do more live betting than anything else.
I dont parlay more than 3 bets at a time, and most often it's a two teamer. I probably do two or three a week at most, and I never include the same bet in more than one parlay. I'm sure others with more experience could chime in, I am an amateur who has just done well lately.
Yeah I know not many people are going to get their winning % above 50%.
I lost $200 last year. Lost $100 this year. Gonna deposit another $100 and see what happens.
Overall, do you guys typically have some sort of strategy though? I know Cap'n Geech takes 10 money lines every week. Seems Jung is consistent with about 10 picks then a few live bets and sprinkles in some other random ones. What about you Ghost? You got any strategies or disciplines you adhere to?
The one thing that's worked pretty well is stay away from game lines you're not at least pretty confident about. When you force a bet, it seems I lose that one every time.
I lost $200 last year. Lost $100 this year. Gonna deposit another $100 and see what happens.
Overall, do you guys typically have some sort of strategy though? I know Cap'n Geech takes 10 money lines every week. Seems Jung is consistent with about 10 picks then a few live bets and sprinkles in some other random ones. What about you Ghost? You got any strategies or disciplines you adhere to?
The one thing that's worked pretty well is stay away from game lines you're not at least pretty confident about. When you force a bet, it seems I lose that one every time.
That's good advice. You're clearly disciplined by withdrawing winnings. I'd rather be lucky than good every time. I usually bet at least $20 a game as well. Sometimes I'll do $50 a game and only do two bets. I just have no consistent strategy on how much I bet per game. I feel like spreading around $10 across 10 games won't yield much, but perhaps I'm wrong.
BTW, I took MSU -19 vs ULL and used the live betting to hedge my bet at ULL +15.5 (or something like that) late 3Q and it worked out.
That's what I've been using. Yes, it's legit. Better than BetDSI, which is what I used last year.
Yes it is but watch out for the deposit bonus. I put in $100 and got a $50 bonus but you have to bet $750 to be able to withdraw. That means you have to take that $150 and win enough to bet at least $750 before you can withdraw whatever is left over. The bonus match is up to half of a $500 deposit. Not sure if the $750 fluctuates depending on how much you deposit.
Another bad week for me. I was -18.24% last week. I'm going to abandon the moneylines and take some points this week. I need something good to happen.
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| Houston | +7.5 |
| Western Kentucky | +3 |
| Massachusetts | +7.5 |
| Colorado State | +24 |
| Coastal Carolina | +15.5 |
| Hawaii | +2.5 |
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I'm on Texas Tech +27, ULL -3.5, Liberty -7, and probably going to take Oregon State ML and Indiana +14
R
RPOdawg
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Not really. The only "discipline" I adhere to is staying under $20 every time I place a bet. Even if it's something like $21 to win $19, I still move my maximum bet down to $20 because its just my personal way to not get myself into a hole I can't dig out of. I usually take about 10 games a weekend and stick to college football. Try to use a bookie and not one of the online gambling sites, as some people have a hard time withdrawing their winnings because of silly rules.
There have been times where I loaded up a little more on a team, but it's not something I make habit. I also DO NOT place any bets on Mississippi State. Which is also a rule I have broken, although I'm not proud of it. Again, remember you might get lucky for a period of time but the odds are against you and don't dig yourself into a hole you will have a problem getting yourself out of. As long as you keep it as "fun" and not a way to actually make money, then you will be fine. Hope that helps.
They key is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. Don't chase money when you are losing either.
But I disagree that you can't be over 50% because I have been the past few years, down this year right now though.
2019 18-22 45%
2018 132-72 65%
2017 114-90 56%
2016 103-87 54%
Be sure to watch the lines and follow their movement and bet trends vs the spread.
If you get a line early and there is movement that you like you can always look to middle it by betting the other side.
Goos luck.
Memphis game tonight? Thoughts? Amazing how close these stats are, but Navy has played beyond weak competition. Memphis not much better either.
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If you are hitting 50% of your bets you are losing money, you have to be winning closer to 59% of your bets to make money, I'm talking spread bets not ML bets. There are plenty of gamblers that are between 50%-55% winners yet still manage to lose. You have the same chance of going 5/5 as 0/5. Biggest thing I see on this board is people betting too many games, I'd say bet no more than 5 games on Saturday and 5 games on Sunday, ideally it would be closer to 3 each of those days.
While gambling is fun the amount you bet is relative to your income, whether it's $100 a season or $1000 game. However, if you are closer to $100 a season you may have more fun in pool games vs single game betting.
While gambling is fun the amount you bet is relative to your income, whether it's $100 a season or $1000 game. However, if you are closer to $100 a season you may have more fun in pool games vs single game betting.
I took two live bets: GB +140 early 4Q. Rogers throws a pick at the 2 or 3 yard line: LOSS
Took Over 65.5 in the Memphis/Navy game with 10min to go in the game. LOSS
Good news is I only bet $10 on each. Bad news is I haven't ever had a loss streak like this before. I've lost 6 of 7 bets. Few bad ones too. Should have known how my luck would be after the Oregon game where I had Oregon +3.5.
Took Over 65.5 in the Memphis/Navy game with 10min to go in the game. LOSS
Good news is I only bet $10 on each. Bad news is I haven't ever had a loss streak like this before. I've lost 6 of 7 bets. Few bad ones too. Should have known how my luck would be after the Oregon game where I had Oregon +3.5.
Penn St -6.5 @ Maryland tonight. Sticking with small bets $10-20 at a time.
Taking ML -220 Cal v Arizona St $20 to win $9. Is that smart? It's still a 45% return on your money.
Doing opposite of me might be a good strategy***
Taking ML -220 Cal v Arizona St $20 to win $9. Is that smart? It's still a 45% return on your money.
Doing opposite of me might be a good strategy***
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BYU (-1.5) over TOLEDO
#18 Virginia (+11.5) over #10 NOTRE DAME
#2 ALABAMA (-35.5) over Mississippi
#24 Kansas St. (+4.5) over OKLAHOMA ST.
OREGON ST. (+3.5) over Stanford
UAB (-2.5) over WESTERN KENTUCKY
#18 Virginia (+11.5) over #10 NOTRE DAME
#2 ALABAMA (-35.5) over Mississippi
#24 Kansas St. (+4.5) over OKLAHOMA ST.
OREGON ST. (+3.5) over Stanford
UAB (-2.5) over WESTERN KENTUCKY