Great analysis by OTB on Rutgers Offense (and what many have been saying)

[DHajekRC84]

http://www.onthebanks.com/2015/10/15/9497653/how-rutgers-offense-succeeds-in-brutal-b1g-east-chris-laviano-leonte-carroo-ben-mcdaniels

Extremely predictive on 1st/2nd/3rd downs and options to open it up. Of course down and distance factors in but over 5 games there is a trend here. 2:1 Run/pass on 1 &2 down and exact opposite on 3rd. V. Good running game would only get better if we mixed it up more with these short-safe passes earlier. IMHO.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

I think since Denman has had some problems blocking that we've needed to keep the TE and FB in to help block, especially against MSU since Calhoun was lined up against us. But the short routes across the middle, as well as hitting a TE or FB out in the flat or RBs on bubbles, are strangely absent. I really like throwing to Goodwin on out-routes, but bubbles to him or sending him across the middle would get us some nice yards and keep the LBs honest when he's in the game.

It's tough to argue with our yards on first down in either the run or pass game, but our third downs have to improve. I think as Laviano gets better reading defenses and trusting his judgement he'll get better at getting rid of the ball more quickly, because right now the defenses are sending the house and it's causing a lot of problems.

I'll add this: for all the Laviano naysayers out there, he has the makings of a good QB once he gets more experience. The kid is new to being the man, and the OC and HC have been bringing him along at a reasonable clip. Next year looks to be a good year, with most of our offense and defense back, and Laviano with a year under his belt. And presumably no more arrests and whatnot.

 

[brgossRU90]

Rush rush pass (and then punt all too often). Looks familiar.

 

[DHajekRC84]

It's tough to argue with our yards on first down in either the run or pass game, but our third downs have to improve. I think as Laviano gets better reading defenses and trusting his judgement he'll get better at getting rid of the ball more quickly, because right now the defenses are sending the house and it's causing a lot of problems.

yeah, agreed. But I see this as partly why we can't maintain long drives and sometimes finish them. I use that last scoring drive vs. MSU as example. We march down the field. We get to the 6 or 8. We run for a few yards, we run again for nothing setting us up in a predictable 3rd and goal and of course run a timing play to who else..Carroo. They were ready for it. No roll out, no TE/back in the flat, etc. All eggs in 1 basket timing play with no options to defend.

Of course Carroo's a great choice but you have to mix things up to keep the defense off balance. We're really not THAT strong where we can just muscle teams consistently with this approach and why we are only scoring 18.5pts (FBS games ex-grant Specail Teams scores) . Way too vanilla. And to your other point..CL can execute that plan and it takes pressure off of him. the OLine to pass protect, and the team to convert on 3rd down (3-12 sat) to sustain drives.

Also, the 20 false starts/illegal formations in 5 games..4 at home is also called out.

 

[MoobyCow]

It's amazing to me how much time is spent trying to figure out what is wrong with the offense (and clearly it's not very good), when the defense is really much worse.

Here is RU's drive efficiency for the last 10+ years

 

[knightfan7]

yeah, agreed. But I see this as partly why we can't maintain long drives and sometimes finish them. I use that last scoring drive vs. MSU as example. We march down the field. We get to the 6 or 8. We run for a few yards, we run again for nothing setting us up in a predictable 3rd and goal and of course run a timing play to who else..Carroo. They were ready for it. No roll out, no TE/back in the flat, etc. All eggs in 1 basket timing play with no options to defend.

Of course Carroo's a great choice but you have to mix things up to keep the defense off balance. We're really not THAT strong where we can just muscle teams consistently with this approach and why we are only scoring 18.5pts (FBS games ex-grant Specail Teams scores) . Way too vanilla. And to your other point..CL can execute that plan and it takes pressure off of him. the OLine to pass protect, and the team to convert on 3rd down (3-12 sat) to sustain drives.

Also, the 20 false starts/illegal formations in 5 games..4 at home is also called out.

The type of penalties RU commits hopefully continue to drop as the season goes along. OL has to be more disciplined.

Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all average more penalty yards per game than RU but RU gets flagged more often than any except Nebraska.

 

[knightfan7]

yeah, agreed. But I see this as partly why we can't maintain long drives and sometimes finish them. I use that last scoring drive vs. MSU as example. We march down the field. We get to the 6 or 8. We run for a few yards, we run again for nothing setting us up in a predictable 3rd and goal and of course run a timing play to who else..Carroo. They were ready for it. No roll out, no TE/back in the flat, etc. All eggs in 1 basket timing play with no options to defend.

Of course Carroo's a great choice but you have to mix things up to keep the defense off balance. We're really not THAT strong where we can just muscle teams consistently with this approach and why we are only scoring 18.5pts (FBS games ex-grant Specail Teams scores) . Way too vanilla. And to your other point..CL can execute that plan and it takes pressure off of him. the OLine to pass protect, and the team to convert on 3rd down (3-12 sat) to sustain drives.

Also, the 20 false starts/illegal formations in 5 games..4 at home is also called out.

The type of penalties RU commits hopefully continue to drop as the season goes along. OL has to be more disciplined.

Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all average more penalty yards per game than RU but RU gets flagged more often than any except Nebraska.

 

[RU_DIO]

How about lining up Janarion in the backfield on third down sometimes?

 

[DHajekRC84]

How about lining up Janarion in the backfield on third down sometimes?

probably gets crushed from back there. I want him out in open space.

 

[brgossRU90]

Looking at play-by-play for the first half shows this about rushing vs passing:

1. 1st and 2nd down rushing went well against Washington State from the start, was mixed against Kansas, was poor against Michigan State (except for one big run) and was totally dismal against Penn State.

2. Here are the 1st down rushing yardages against Kansas in the first half: 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 7, 4. Here are 2nd down yardages: 0, 2, 35, -2, 2, 6, -1, 31. I didn't see the game but the longer runs in the 2nd quarter suggest they were finding or making holes for the backs to pop off longer runs but they were pretty much running into brick walls for the 1st quarter.

3. Against Penn State the rushing game failed almost entirely on 1st down and the offense switched to passing on 2nd down early and often. The results were mostly not good.

4. Against Michigan State the rushing game did not work well early--until Paul James 72 yard rush during the 4th possession. Prior to that rushing plays on 1st and 2nd down got yardage of -1, 3, -1, 2. After the 39 yard TD pass to Carroo the next two rushing plays got 12 and 9 yards. Coincidence? Probably not.

5. Right now I think it's hard to say if the offense is really getting enough yards rushing on 1st and 2nd down or if it's going to be a tough slog going forward. It did well enough against two poor opponents but had mixed results against Big Ten opponents. Against Michigan State it was saved by a couple of big plays. Will it be able to reproduce that against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska?

 

[RU_DIO]

probably gets crushed from back there. I want him out in open space.

I'm thinking you line him up in the backfield and give him screens, put him in motion or run a sweep for him. He's pretty damn strong.

 

[apgoosebumps]

Good analysis except calling Michigan State defense elite. Their total defense is ranked in the 80s and passing D much worse than that..

 

[DHajekRC84]

I'm thinking you line him up in the backfield and give him screens, put him in motion or run a sweep for him. He's pretty damn strong.

yeah..they do run 1 Jet Sweep per game for him...getting out there..like an old school flanker would work. Just not pounding him up the middle ala Jeremy Deering.

 

[RMSko1]

It would be interesting to see how this compares to the average of all P5 schools taken together.

 

[WhiteBus]

Rutgers is ranked at 106 in penalties per game. (8 per game) but Flood is OK with that [eyeroll]

 

[realhoops2]

It's amazing to me how much time is spent trying to figure out what is wrong with the offense (and clearly it's not very good), when the defense is really much worse.

Here is RU's drive efficiency for the last 10+ years

Your own graph shows that the defense is just a wee bit better than last year while the offense is significantly worse.

 

[DaveSNJ]

Would be interesting to see numbers for BIG games only. Rushing avg on 1st = almost 6.5 yards per carry, passing avg on 1st down = 9.3 yards per pass - these numbers are not bad. I think the numbers would be more telling if only BIG games included.

The conservative nature of our play calling, I believe, has more to do with the trust the staff has with the OL and 1st time starting QB than anything else. In other words the thought I could see is run on first down gives us positive movement and keeps us from a 2nd and long down and distance. The numbers on 2nd down at an avg of 5.7 yards per carry is not bad either. 1st and 2nd down 2:1 ratios run to pass and then almost the opposite on 3rd down 2:1 pass to run, really would need more detail around 2nd and 3rd down to get a better assessment of what is actually happening. So yes, very predictable however Im not sure the staff has a choice. Maybe as the season continues forward and the OL improves we will see more diversity on 1st and 2nd down. It would be also interesting to see game by game ratios per down and how it has been trending to this point.