Yes and yes.
On number 1:
There's many scenarios that can happen to where we could lose but still get in. We could lose either at OM or bama, not go to Atlanta, but still be a very solid 1 loss team. I actually think for playoff purposes this would be a better route. Georgia is playing damn good football right now even if the east is a little inferior. In order for us to get to the playoff we'd either have to completely run the table and lose in the SECCG or make sure we beat Georgia. 2 losses isn't going to get it done for the first playoff I don't think.
On number 2:
Who else is going to win it at this point? Mariota doesn't have the line help that he needs. Winston is toxic. Baylor will trip up along the way with their damn defense even if Petty continues to play well. Gurley is done. The only person that really scares me here is Golson from ND. The press loves Notre Dame and a redemption story more than a blue collar underdog. The only way Wallace is in this conversation is if OM goes undefeated, which I don't see happening. They have 4 tests left where we only have like 2.5 (the .5 is Arkansas since we get them at home and matchup well with them). That LSU game will be tougher than expected I think for OM.