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Heck with GW going 7A, How about LZ going 6A

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capnbillhitters

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For those tracking the GW 7A vs 8A bracket issue, to me, it looks like it comes down to DGS beating DGN this week to send GW to 7A. One not so crazy scenario would put E'ville into 7A as well.

Today's Playoff Outlook http://ihsa.org/SportsActivities/Bo...ormationResults.aspx?url=/data/fb/outlook.htm shows GW and Edwardsville in 7A, which means if two teams currently projected as 8A fall out, GW goes back up to 8A.

Teams Projected in 8A currently but on the brink:
  • Lake Park - LP plays NV and NC and likely does not project to win either. With NV getting blanked by WN this week, maybe there are some injuries or issues that crop up this week against LP so maybe LP does win and make the playoffs, but odds say LP out of playoofs
  • DGS - If DGS loses this week to DGN, they are likely out as week 9-Willowbrook is on a big roll. Both DGN and DGS are playing for their playoff lives, so both teams will be playing out of their minds. DGS wins, GW in 7A, DGS Loses GW in 8A.
Other possible scenarios
  • LP pulls off the upset of either NV or NC + DGS beats DGN and pushes E'ville down to 7A . In this scenario, 7A is pretty tough with ESL, GW, LWC, Bat, WN, LZ, Normal and Hononegah (!?!?!?!?!) making for an interesting top 8
  • Scenario above PLUS Glenbrook North beats Vernon Hils and Deerfield and gets into 7A field and pushes LZ down to 6A with PR, C-M, (I haven't pressure tested all the requirements of teams already projected into the top 32, so don't call me on some 5-2/4-3 team losing twice and not qualifying for 7A)
 
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capnbillhitters

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I am not going to claim that ESL, LWC, Batavia, WN, LZ, Normal and Hononogeh are not enough competition without GW and possibly E'ville, but you are right that if GW comes down to 7A, there would be better balance with 8A. 8A would still be a tougher run, but 7A would be better served.

Losing LZ to 6A would suck for 7A. I mean everyone would reconsider the 6A brackets if LZ fell in and the whole PR steamroller might have to game plan for a defense that would be perfectly suited to compete against Superman.
 
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mc140

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If it moves enough to drop LZ to 6a, PR would end up in 5a. Probably will not move that much.
 
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capnbillhitters

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mc140 said:
If it moves enough to drop LZ to 6a, PR would end up in 5a. Probably will not move that much.
Click to expand...

The movement I have to get LZ down to 6A assumes on one further qualifier to the current 7A/8A mix.

LZ is currently the smallest 7A team in the projections. PR is the 3rd smallest in 6A. PR and LZ would Seed 1 & 2 in 7A and the drums would start for that final.
 
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flyerforlife

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Jut enough of a move for Rochester to be challenged in 4A is good enough for me. They have too easy of a path.
 
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playboymixx

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capnbillhitters said:
I am not going to claim that ESL, LWC, Batavia, WN, LZ, Normal and Hononogeh are not enough competition without GW and possibly E'ville, but you are right that if GW comes down to 7A, there would be better balance with 8A. 8A would still be a tougher run, but 7A would be better served.

Losing LZ to 6A would suck for 7A. I mean everyone would reconsider the 6A brackets if LZ fell in and the whole PR steamroller might have to game plan for a defense that would be perfectly suited to compete against Superman.
Click to expand...
I just hope that 7A is better than it was last year. As you said, balancing out 7A and 8A would be ideal.
 
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capnbillhitters

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EDIT - I made a mistake in this bracketing because I assumed Andrew holds #5 but they play H-F so dropped them to #16 and redid brackets below.

So just for fun, I did some more research for the seedings and see where GW might end up in the bottom bracket with the top bracket having Batavia, LZ & ESL. I took the Outlook from above and checked Opponent victories and I think LZ ends up #4 because Fremd loses final two leaving LZ with 35 OVs (28+6 conf splits + 1 Montini over MC), while Normal and Hon each pick up 8 giving them (28+8=36) 36 as all their opponents have in-conf splits.

SCN and Bat play in week 9 so if Bat wins, SCN drops below ESL who will finish 8-1.

Seeding would be something like this for Round 2 (assuming all else holds:
Top Bracket
#1 - Bat vs (winner Benet 16 & SCN 17)
#8 - LWC vs #9 ESL

#4 - LZ vs #13 Buffalo Grove
#5 - E'ville Winner of (E'ville 28 v Andrew 5) vs #12 Maine West

Bottom Bracket
#2 Hononegah vs #15 Benet
#7 GW vs #10 WN @ Duchon with memories of 2012

#3 Normal vs #14 Reeters
#6 Winner (Lincoln Park vs Schaumburg) vs #11 Rolling Meadows

This would be an interesting bracket and has as good a chance as any as being the final layout.
 
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playboymixx

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capnbillhitters said:
So just for fun, I did some more research for the seedings and see where GW might end up in the bottom bracket with the top bracket having Batavia, LZ & ESL. I took the Outlook from above and checked Opponent victories and I think LZ ends up #4 because Fremd loses final two leaving LZ with 35 OVs (28+6 conf splits + 1 Montini over MC), while Normal and Hon each pick up 8 giving them (28+8=36) 36 as all their opponents have in-conf splits.

SCN and Bat play in week 9 so if Bat wins, SCN drops below ESL who will finish 8-1.

Seeding would be something like this for Round 2 (assuming all else holds:
Top Bracket
#1 - Bat vs (winner Benet 16 & SCN 17)
#8 - LWC vs #9 ESL

#4 - LZ vs #13 Buffalo Grove
#5 - E'ville Winner of (E'ville 28 v Andrew 5) vs #12 Maine West

Bottom Bracket
#2 Hononegah vs #15 Benet
#7 GW vs #10 WN @ Duchon with memories of 2012

#3 Normal vs #14 Reeters
#6 Winner (Lincoln Park vs Schaumburg) vs #11 Rolling Meadows

This would be an interesting bracket and has as good a chance as any as being the final layout.
Click to expand...
How would E'Ville end up #5 with 3 losses? Am I missing something? lol
 
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Wittymoniker1

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capnbillhitters said:
So just for fun, I did some more research for the seedings and see where GW might end up in the bottom bracket with the top bracket having Batavia, LZ & ESL. I took the Outlook from above and checked Opponent victories and I think LZ ends up #4 because Fremd loses final two leaving LZ with 35 OVs (28+6 conf splits + 1 Montini over MC), while Normal and Hon each pick up 8 giving them (28+8=36) 36 as all their opponents have in-conf splits.

SCN and Bat play in week 9 so if Bat wins, SCN drops below ESL who will finish 8-1.

Seeding would be something like this for Round 2 (assuming all else holds:
Top Bracket
#1 - Bat vs (winner Benet 16 & SCN 17)
#8 - LWC vs #9 ESL

#4 - LZ vs #13 Buffalo Grove
#5 - E'ville Winner of (E'ville 28 v Andrew 5) vs #12 Maine West

Bottom Bracket
#2 Hononegah vs #15 Benet
#7 GW vs #10 WN @ Duchon with memories of 2012

#3 Normal vs #14 Reeters
#6 Winner (Lincoln Park vs Schaumburg) vs #11 Rolling Meadows

This would be an interesting bracket and has as good a chance as any as being the final layout.
Click to expand...

This is interesting; I honestly think Rita would be the underdog against Normal. If they get by that game, then Rita vs. GW/WN winner would be a great semi-final game.
 
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capnbillhitters

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Taking a redo on my bracket based on Andrew losing to H-F this weekend:

Top Bracket
#1 Bat vs Winner (#16 Andrews v #17 PN)
#8 ESL vs #9 WN what a dozy 2nd round matchup

#4 LZ vs #13 Reeters
#5 Lincoln Park (unless LP loses to #28 could be E'Ville /Schaumburg) vs #12 Buffalo Grove

Bottom Bracket
#2 Hononegah vs #15 SCN
#7 LWC vs #10 Rolling Meadows

#3 Normal vs #14 Benet
#6 GW vs #11 Maine West

This bracket is very interesting for GW fans. I don't think we have ever played Maine West or at Normal.
 
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Goomlah

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capnbillhitters said:
Taking a redo on my bracket based on Andrew losing to H-F this weekend

This bracket is very interesting for GW fans. I don't think we have ever played Maine West or at Normal.
Click to expand...

If by interesting you mean an easy route to the semis then yes.
 
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LakeCtyNewt

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This is very interesting. LZ - not including ESL is the smallest school as of today in 7A. Ed's and GBW are the two biggest. A lot would have to happen at 8A to force LZ out. And a lot would have to happen in 7A to force Ed's and GBW up.

What I looked at is the number of 4 loss teams in both classes. 8A has 7 teams with 4 losses, 7A has 6. Also there are only 5 3 loss teams in 8A. So likely the delta doesn't change much here. I would be very surprised if either Eds or GBW move up. Unless a couple of the 3 or 4 loss teams stay hot they stay. If all the 4 loss teams in 7A get hot, then LZ moves down which makes a ridiculously hard class even tougher.

Next week will shake a lot of this out.

Of the four loss teams Sandburg, Waubonsie, Zion, Plainfield South and Leyden are in tough against teams that on paper look better than they do. So say those 5 lose, you would only have 6 teams left including Taft for 5 spots.

Now that I add it up I would say Ed's likely moves GBW is last in at 7A. which keeps LZ in 7A.
 
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capnbillhitters

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LakeCtyNewt said:
This is very interesting. LZ - not including ESL is the smallest school as of today in 7A. Ed's and GBW are the two biggest. A lot would have to happen at 8A to force LZ out. And a lot would have to happen in 7A to force Ed's and GBW up.

What I looked at is the number of 4 loss teams in both classes. 8A has 7 teams with 4 losses, 7A has 6. Also there are only 5 3 loss teams in 8A. So likely the delta doesn't change much here. I would be very surprised if either Eds or GBW move up. Unless a couple of the 3 or 4 loss teams stay hot they stay. If all the 4 loss teams in 7A get hot, then LZ moves down which makes a ridiculously hard class even tougher.

Next week will shake a lot of this out.

Of the four loss teams Sandburg, Waubonsie, Zion, Plainfield South and Leyden are in tough against teams that on paper look better than they do. So say those 5 lose, you would only have 6 teams left including Taft for 5 spots.

Now that I add it up I would say Ed's likely moves GBW is last in at 7A. which keeps LZ in 7A.
Click to expand...

I think your conclusion is correct. E'ville 8A, GW and LZ 7A and a bracket that I posted above only Eville not it but another low team like Schaumburg beating Lincoln Park
 
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LHSTigers94

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playboymixx said:
How do you see it playing out? The QB is the only real weapon that they have at this point making them too predictable.
Click to expand...

Same can be said for West with the RB. E'ville QB is a game breaker with a lot of speed. Look at the amount of TD's called back this year. A lot of points have been taken off the board which change E'ville point totals for the year. Another point is West like to Zone blitz which won't work against a QB that can run like that. He is too elusive for one person to stop.
 
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playboymixx

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LHSTigers94 said:
Same can be said for West with the RB. E'ville QB is a game breaker with a lot of speed. Look at the amount of TD's called back this year. A lot of points have been taken off the board which change E'ville point totals for the year. Another point is West like to Zone blitz which won't work against a QB that can run like that. He is too elusive for one person to stop.
Click to expand...
I agree with what you're saying. The QB is legit. It's just that the rest of the team is really struggling and Kendall gets exhausted doing most of the work. I don't think that his stamina will hold up against Belleville West. I hope that you're right though! lol
 
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illinigrim

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capnbillhitters said:
Taking a redo on my bracket based on Andrew losing to H-F this weekend:

Top Bracket
#1 Bat vs Winner (#16 Andrews v #17 PN)
#8 ESL vs #9 WN what a dozy 2nd round matchup

#4 LZ vs #13 Reeters
#5 Lincoln Park (unless LP loses to #28 could be E'Ville /Schaumburg) vs #12 Buffalo Grove

Bottom Bracket
#2 Hononegah vs #15 SCN
#7 LWC vs #10 Rolling Meadows

#3 Normal vs #14 Benet
#6 GW vs #11 Maine West

This bracket is very interesting for GW fans. I don't think we have ever played Maine West or at Normal.
Click to expand...

We would love to see this match-up at Maine West! We are young and looking forward to our first playoff experience since 2002!
 
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playboymixx

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LHSTigers94 said:
Same can be said for West with the RB. E'ville QB is a game breaker with a lot of speed. Look at the amount of TD's called back this year. A lot of points have been taken off the board which change E'ville point totals for the year. Another point is West like to Zone blitz which won't work against a QB that can run like that. He is too elusive for one person to stop.
Click to expand...
LHSTigers94 so far you have been exactly right. E-Ville 21, Belleville West 0 at the end of the 1st.

E-Ville up 31-0 at the half. I'm shocked! Does BW has key players not playing tonight?

Final: E-Ville 45, Belleville West 14. Didn't see that one coming at all. How does BW barely lose to Eastside and then take their biggest loss of the season against E-Ville?
 
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