Here is the breakdown by Sporting News and Accuscore.......

Nov 16, 2005
27,027
19,433
113
<font class="text"><font class="subhead">What 4 seed is most vulnerable to upset?</font></font></p>

<font class="text">Washington is by far the most vulnerable of the 4 seeds. Washington is winning just 51.9 percent of simulations over SEC tournament champion Mississippi State. Washington is coming off a double-digit loss to Arizona State in the Pac-10 tournament. Besides momentum being in favor of Mississippis State, the big issue for Washington is offensive efficiency.</font></p>

<font class="text">Against other tournament teams, Washington shot 42.1 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from 3-point range, while opponents shot 43.0 percent overall and 34.3 percent from three.</font></p>

<font class="text">Washington committed more turnovers than their tournament team opponents. Washington won games thanks to a good edge in rebounding (plus-5.3 per game).</font></p>

<font class="text">For the season, Mississippi State was minus-4.5 rebounds per game against tournament teams. However, in the SEC tournament, Mississippi State outrebounded three of its four opponents by 15 total rebounds (nearly four per game). If the Mississippi State continues to rebound like it has the past few weeks, they could upset Washington.</font></p>